Or something like that.
Those were the words uttered (approximately) by Athletics GM Billy Beane several years ago when asked why the Athletics never realized success in the playoffs despite constantly finding a way to get there after being written off time and time again. The vast majority of the talking heads and mediots, from that moment on, labelled Beane as a guy that couldn't get it done in the playoffs. That he didn't know how to build a playoff team.
Except, its not really that hard. You simply....build a good team. If your team is good enough to bet one of the top 4 in the league after 162 games, then you have yourself a good team. If you go online or turn on TV, everybody talks about clutch players, proven playoff performers, choke artists, yadda-yadda yadda. Don't listen to them, though. All that stuff is overrated.
What Beane meant when he said his shit don't work in the playoffs is that the playoffs in baseball are essentially a crap shoot. The entire goal of the season should be to make the playoffs (especially for non-Yankee/Red Sox teams) and then everything after that is gravy. The entire issue is sample size. They take 162 games to whittle it down to the top 4 teams, and then you play 5 games to try and determine which team is "better." All it takes is for a slump here, an injury there, and an opposition member or two heating up and bam!....you're outta the playoffs before they seemingly started. Beane recognized this and so he never let his post season struggles bother him. You get there enough times, eventually luck will favor you once or twice.
That's why Cubs fans need to stop being little punk ass emo bitches and suck it up. Yeah...your team lost. So what?!?!? It happens. You were playing a decent Dodgers team. It was only a 5 game series. ANYTHING can happen in a 5 game series. A bad break here and there and you'll lose some close games. It's the reason why only two teams from each league used to make the playoffs....because more often than not, the best team doesn't always win.
The Cubs didn't give up on you. They didn't have a roster full of clutchless followers wandering aimlessly about waiting for their Godly clutch leader to take the reins and bring them to glory. They just played flat for a week. That shit happens. Suck it up. There's still next year and this team will probably return mostly intact. If they add some more players they increase their chances in the playoffs next year. Don't come bitching and whining to me about clutchiness and gamers and leaders. Fuck...the Dodgers had Juan Pierre on their bench and he's apparently the clutchiest, gameriest leader in all of baseball if you listen to the media.
Suck it up bitches and take it like a man. Shit happens. Yeah, its been a long time...but you've had some pretty shitty teams in the past. You got the privelege to watch a pretty good team all year and you at least had the excitement of the playoffs for a few days. How the hell do you think Royals fans feel?
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Friday, October 3, 2008
10 Players You Need to Familiarize Yourself With
Every year everybody and their grandma releases their sleeper list, which is, in my opinion, the biggest waste of a read pretty much anywhere. There is usually one of two main problems with these lists:
1.) They list players that aren't really sleepers. Everybody already knows who Steve Stamkos and Kyle Turris are and are well aware of their potential. They're high ceiling youngsters that are going to be overdrafted by some zealous idiot that just finished reading the crappy sleeper list and wants to make sure he gets Stamkos' 50-60 point season before anybody else does, passing on Daymond Langkow's 60-70 point season. Another example was Tim Lincecum last year in baseball pools. People had him as a sleeper, whereas anybody that really followed what was going on would know that Lincecum wasn't a sleeper....he was already a legitimate front line fantasy starter due to his high strike out totals and great rate stats.
2.) They list players that are too deep for your league. This causes some idiot to draft Sami Lepisto ahead of Roman Hamrlik because they read somewhere that Lepisto is a sleeper, when the list really meant that Lepisto has a shot of making the Capitals this year and could, if things break right, make the 2nd line power play unit and receive a marginal amount of power play time with guys like Brook Laich and maybe get 25 points. Of course people get intrigued by the unknown (Lepisto? Nobody's even HEARD of that guy....maybe he's some up and coming phenom. Man will I look brilliant taking him in the 18th round if he is the next big thing!)
No....I hate sleeper lists. Sleeper lists never have the intended effect of what they're supposed to do. Instead of making you aware of guys that you should keep your eye on or might have a higher ceiling than you think, all they really do is cause fantasy nation to end up overdrafting players several rounds too early. Especially when a particular player ends up on EVERYBODY's sleeper list (I'm looking at you Vincent Jackson of the San Diego Chargers). This player can no longer be considered a sleeper and will, in fact, be drafted FAR too early in your draft. Yes...constant appearances on sleeper lists will actually make that player OVERrated.
As a rule, the players on this list shouldn't be drafted in your standard 10 team league with average size rosters, unless you're taking a late round flier on one. There is just not enough value in these guys to draft right now. However, they are the players you should have on your watch list early in the season. If they are producing or getting the ice time, then you can seriously consider picking them up as the last player on your bench or as an injury replacement. But please...don't draft them and then complain when they get sent down to the AHL for more seasoning because I already freaking warned you.
1.) R.J. Umberger (C, Columbus Blue Jackets) - There is a spot open up the middle in Columbus that is betweeen two pretty good offensive players in Kristian Huselius and Rick Nash. The battle will come down to two players: Derrick Brassard and R.J. Umberger. The loser will center a line of Fred Modin and Jakub Voracek. Umberger would seem to make more sense on the second line, splitting up rookies Brassard and Voracek (and especially if Filatov makes this team, as he would probably command 2nd line time, as well.) However, if Umberger does get on the first line, he could be in line for a useful season. He was modestly productive last year playing on a deep Philly team and he should only see his ice time increase this year. Being at a fairly deep position (centre), Umberger isn't that draftworthy yet, but is someone to keep an eye once the injury bug begins to strike.
2.) Alex Goligoski (D, Pittsburgh Penguins) - Ryan Whitney is on the shelf for a few months. And Sergei Gonchar is injured and may miss a month or two. That means someone has to step up and QB the very potent Pittsburgh power play with Malkin and Crosby. The two candidates are likely Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski. While Letang has the inside track, Goligoski shouldn't be counted out, especially if Gonchar's injury is more serious than expected. He's a good player to stash away in deep keeper leagues. (Update: Gonchar elected to undergo surgery, which makes Goligoski a must own in medium to deep leagues if you have the roster space.)
3.) Sean Bergenheim (LW, New York Islanders) - I've always been a big Bergenheim fan since his appearance in the World Juniors several years back. He seemed to be one of the best players on the ice and I'm surprised he hasn't done much in the NHL, given his skill level. He had a solid end to the season last year and could be ready to turn the corner and become a productive second line forward. In New York, he may get a crack at the top line but will lack solid teammates. Still, a 50 point season isn't out of the question.
4.) Matt Niskanen (D, Dallas Stars) - Niskanen is borderline draftable in most one year pools (but should be owned in keeper pools). He seems to be a forgotten man this year, even though Sergei Zubov is banged up and Philippe Boucher is coming back from injury. Neither are sure bets to get healthy and remain that way, which means a spot will likely be available on the Dallas power play. Niskanen impressed last year while filling in there on occasion and could be a 35-40 point d-man with enough PP time.
5.) Pascal Dupuis (LW, Pittsburgh Penguins) - Dupuis' career high is 48 points, which happened in the pre-lockout years when scoring was down considerably. He's not going to bust out and get 70 points or anything, as he only had 15 points in 62 games last year with Atlanta. But 12 in 16 games with Pittsburgh. The difference? Sidney Crosby. Dupuis is slated to skate with Crosby again this year and could get you around 45-50 points quite easily.
6.) Fredrik Modin (LW, Columbus Blue Jackets) - Modin was, at one time, a fairly productive forward. He's struggled through injuries and poor linemates while in Columbus, but this year the reports are that he's as healthy as he's been in years and he will likely be skating with some of the most talented players in years. If 50 point wingers gotten on the cheap are of any interest to you, consider Modin.
7.) Jeff Finger (D, Toronto Maple Leafs) - While the rest of the hockey world still asks "WTF!?!?!!?" to the Finger signing, you should pay attention to what kind of ice time he gets. He will likely kill your +/- if your league counts that, but he's also getting paid the kind of money that might land him on the power play. And yeah...its the Toronto power play, but that could still mean 35 points or so.
8.) Martin Hanzal (C, Phoenix Coyotes) - The Coyotes are a vastly improved team and Hanzal had a pretty strong rookie year last year. Sure, he's probably behind Jokinen, Mueller and Turris on the depth chart at centre, but there is a good chance Mueller gets moved to a wing with Jokinen and Doan, and Hanzal is a talented scorer that could force his way onto a wing on the second line. If so, he could be worth a look....if not.....that's why you don't draft people on this list (unless you're in a keeper league!)
9.) Chuck Kobasew (RW, Boston Bruins) - As a warning, I've been a huge Kobasew fan since his days in junior. I've always assumed he would be a very productive player at the NHL level. Well....I'm still waiting. If he stays healthy, he should see more time this year on one of the top two lines with either Savard or a hopefully healthy Bergeron. Expect a boost in production from the 39 points he scored last year.
10.) Erik Ersberg (G, Los Angeles Kings) - In most leagues, every starting goalie and every important back-up will likely be owned. It usually leaves the waiver wire bare of good goaltending options. Ersberg has a fairly decent shot (40-50%) of being number 1a in LA. Yeah...its LA, but he probably is on your wire and he's probably going to play more than 20-30 games. If you're desperate, he might be worth a gamble. Especially considering LA has some great young players and could be a vastly improved team by as early as this season.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
One Year Hockey Pool Draft Results!
So far, my goal of updating this place with any sort of regularity is a massive failure. But we'll keep trying.
A couple of weekends ago I had both of my hockey drafts. The afternoon was my regular one year pool, while in the evening was my keeper pool. You'd think that a day full of hockey drafts and pizza and X-Box and Entourage would be one of the greatest days ever, but after the dust had settled I was completely beat.
Anyways, I wanted to go over my thought process on my one year pool to share some ideas on strategies and the whatnot.
Since last year my team trainwrecked out of the gate (I was stifled by Semin, Demitra, McCabe, Justin Williams and Kevin Bieksa's ability to stay healthy early on, combined with the inability for Kipprusoff and Backstrom to not suck between the pipes) but finished fairly strong, I won the consolation round and, as per league rules, had the option to pick where I selected in the draft. I did take something away from last season, which is to never underestimate the value of depth.
I immediately thought of taking one of the top 2 picks to get Crosby or Ovechkin. Then I thought about maybe taking a mid-round pick and grabbing Brodeur or Heatley and having a better pick in the 2nd round. Then I toyed with the idea of drafting last and getting back to back picks of elite players. Ultimately I decided to map it out and see what kind of talent drops there were. I found that there were about 19 players I liked as first round type talents. That made it very easy and I decided to take the 2nd pick. This ensured me one of the big 2, while also guaranteeing I got one of my guys with my 2nd pick as well. It also solved the dilemma of having the first pick: Crosby or Ovechkin. They're fairly equal in my books, though I'd slightly prefer Ovechkin in our pool format (LW and he gets lots of shots).
So lets take a round by round look at what happened:
First Round: Sidney Crosby (C) - I was hoping Crosby would go 1st overall so I could nab Ovechkin due to his left-wingedness, but alas Ovie was selected first overall (after the guy tried trading the first overall pick in order to move up in the 4th round....which didn't seem to make any sense to me). I quickly grabbed Crosby, who is obviously the next best player in the league. I hate grabbing centres early but...well....its Crosby.
Second Round: Joe Thornton (C) - Uhh....what did I just say about centres? I was totally set on taking a goalie with this pick and the 2nd goalie on my board (Lundqvist) just about fell to me (taken just before my pick). After Lundqvist was gone, my first tier goalies were all gone so I quickly browsed the other positions and noticed that, for some reason, Joe Thornton was still available. Since Thornton is a 90-100 point player and since I'm a huge Thornton fan, I completely abandoned my centre dodging mantra and scooped him up. I mean...hey...it's Joe Thornton with the 19th pick in the draft!
Third Round: Marty Turco (G) - I definitely had to grab a keeper here because it was going to be a long wait for my next pick. Turco was the top goalie in my 2nd tier and was a pretty obvious choice. I really like the looks of the Dallas team this year and Turco is a workhorse that has stayed healthy, so this is a pretty safe lock for 35 or so wins and solid rate stats.
Fourth Round: Mike Green (D) - This was my mistake of the draft. I made a quick mental error, not taking enough time to think about what I was doing and it might end up really costing me. I wanted to grab a 2nd goalie and top D-man. Green was at the top of my 2nd tier of d-men, while Carey Price was at the top of my 3rd tier of goalies. Except I didn't really consider Price a 3rd tier goalie...I considered him somewhere between a 2nd and 3rd tier goalie. I took Green, not realizing that the guy that had back-to-back picks before my next one HAD to take a goalie and sure enough he took Price. Don't get me wrong, I like Green, but there isn't much difference between him and Brian Campbell and I surely would have gotten one of those 2 in the fifth round.
Fifth Round: Brendan Morrow (LW) - I thought of grabbing my 2nd goalie here, but noticed that my third tier of goalies was long and a pretty interchangeable bunch so I decided I could wait and still get one with my next pick. Morrow is probably one of the more underrated players because he's going to get 70-80 points, but also help out a bunch in PIMs and +/-. He also helps fill a tough-to-fill LW slot.
Sixth Round: Teemu Selanne (RW) - Selanne surprisingly got very little love this year in either of my pools. He's still an 80 point player and to get an 80 point RW at this stage in the draft is a steal. Right wing is pretty shallow this year and if you don't get in on them soon enough, you'll suffer from the severe drop in talent after the first 12 or so. This might be my favorite pick of the draft.
Seventh Round: Andrei Markov (D) - I planned on taking a goalie here but goalies were staying on the board and I had enough third tier goalies left on my list that I was pretty sure I could wait for things to come back around to me again. Making this decision easier was the fact Markov was still around, who I had ranked up there with Green and Campbell. Nice pick here, but also makes my Green pick look even that much poorer.
Eighth Round: Nathan Horton (RW) - I was going G/RW with these next two picks and noticed the guy with back-to-back picks between my picks already had two goalies so I felt pretty safe passing on Cam Ward here (the last third tier goalie on my list) and taking Horton. I love Horton this year because he's going to be the go to guy in Florida and I think he can handle it. He also adds some PIMs to the mix and helps shore up that last RW slot for me before the perilous RW talent drop.
Ninth Round: Cam Ward (G) - As mad at myself as I was about the Green/Price fiasco, I couldn't have really asked for a better plan B. I'm not huge on Ward but I don't think he's that much different from the Nik Backstrom's and Jose Theodore's of the world and I was able to nab him as late as I possibly could have. I think Carolina will have a solid team and he should rack up enough wins to make my goalies good enough.
Tenth Round: Bryan McCabe (D) - I bounced back and forth on whether McCabe was a 2nd or 3rd tier D this year, so to get him this late is a nice little roll of the dice. If he stays healthy, he should be okay manning the Panthers power play (it can't be any worse than Toronto!) and he also contributes in the PIM category, which is important considering the players I was targetting in later rounds. If he busts...meh...I'm only out a 10th rounder.
Eleventh Round: Patrik Elias (LW) - I wanted to grab a LW here just to shore up my starting line-up. Left wing is actually much deeper this year than it has been in the past and there were a lot of similar type players here. I ultimately went with Elias becuase he does have 80 point potential still and last year he struggled and still put up 55 points. He also might end up leading my team in shots.
Twelfth Round: Kristian Huselius (LW) - Speaking of similar type left wings....I was really surprised to see Huselius slide to this spot. I'm not entirely sold on him but he did put up 66 points last year despite spending an awful lot of time in Mike Keenan's doghouse. The move to Columbus won't kill his stats because he'll be lining up with Rick Nash and he'll probably get alot more ice time. A very nice third left wing to have.
Thirteenth Round: Mats Sundin (C) - At this point in the draft it gets very hard to predict what will happen and there begin to be ALOT of similar type players. It makes a lot of sense to grab a risky player with a ton of upside that people have been avoiding at this point. I grabbed Sundin because he was easily the most talented player on the board and he also seems, to me anyways, the most sure bet of all the question marks that were out there. And with Crosby and Thornton, I don't NEED Sundin to play anytime soon, though he would slot very nicely into a UTIL spot.
Fourteenth Round: Andrej Meszaros (D) - There were still a handful of decent defensemen available and I needed a fourth one so I nabbed Meszaros here. I think he's a lock for about 40 points and some PIMs, but he also has the potential for about 50 points manning a pretty good Lightning power play.
Fifteenth Round: Brian Gionta (RW) - With Selanne getting up there in age, I wanted a solid back-up right wing and Gionta scored 40 goals just a couple of years ago. He was mediocre last year but I really think Elias and Gionta are going to have bounce back seasons.
Sixteenth Round: J.M. Liles (D) - I had Liles just behind Meszaros on my rankings and figured here was as good as time as any to grab a back-up d-man. Especially considering Liles would be a starter on a lot of teams. He suffered through a horrible season last year and still managed 32 points.
Seventeenth Round: Patrice Bergeron (C) - From everything I've read, Bergeron is pretty much back 100% from his injury last season. If so, its hard to argue with grabbing a 75 point player in the 17th round.
Eighteenth Round: Patrick O'Sullivan (C) - Sully should probably pick-up LW eligibility at some point, which gives him even more value. He seems primed for a breakout season this year after a strong finish last year and 65-70 points aren't out of the question. Another great late-round value pick if you ask me.
Nineteenth Round: Kris Letang (D) - This was an educated sleeper pick. I knew Whitney was out for a few months and it looked like Gonchar was going to miss a bit of time. With Gonchar now out for 4-6 months, Letang is an absolute steal here. He'll be quarterbacking a power play unit that includes Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and with that might actually be my third or fourth best d-man.
Twentieth Round: Drew Stafford (RW) - Never a bad idea to stock up on solid right wings this year and Stafford should be in line for about 50 or so points, with potential for more if he makes a leap this year.
Twenty-first Round: Ty Conklin (G) - Osgood's owner dropped the ball by letting Conklin go undrafted to this point. With Ward and Turco being pretty consistent and healthy in the past, I put off drafting a third goalie. Conklin was a player I was quietly targetting because Osgood always seems to battle injuries and/or struggle with play and it would not be out of the question for Conklin to pick up quite a few starts. And when those starts are for Detroit, Conklin could become a top 15 goalie.
Twenty-second Round: Josh Harding (G) - Funny thing....I was also quietly targetting Harding because there is a good chance he could get alot of starts this year and Minnesota is a nice team for your goalie to be starting for. It also so happens that the Osgood owner in our league owned Backstrom as his other goalie....so now both of his handcuffs (and arguably the two most important ones in the league this year) are on my roster. This was a great pick based solely on bargaining power on a future trade, let alone Harding's potential.
Twenty-third Round: Fabian Brunnstrom (LW) - I really liked my team for the most part and I also liked my depth so I decided to take a chance on the highest upside player left. I don't anticipate much from him, but you never know and my roster is set up such that I can afford to drop him for someone else if need be. (Which I ended up doing after someone dropped Chris Higgins).
Recap
Centre - Thornton, Crosby, Sundin, Bergeron, O'Sullivan
Easily the best in the league. And if Sundin returns....WOW! The nice thing is we have two forward slots and a UTIL slot, so Bergeron will be in the starting line-up along with Sundin, if he returns.
Left Wing - Morrow, Elias, Huselius, Higgins
Not an elite group, but also not too bad and there is some depth here. I really like Morrow and am hoping Elias or Huselius has another big season left in them.
Right Wing - Selanne, Horton, Gionta, Stafford
Selanne is just about as good as any RW not taken in the first round and I really like Horton's prospects this year. If Gionta can regain his form this is another very strong unit.
Defense - Green, Markov, McCabe, Meszaros, Liles, Letang
This isn't a really flashy unit, but I think it might end up being one of the top units in our league. I really like Green and Markov as top of the line guys and I'm left with four very good options to plug into the last two slots. This gives me lots of match-up options each week and will also cushion the blow of any potential injuries.
Goaltender - Turco, Ward, Conklin, Harding
Turco is one of my favorite goalies this year because of the strong Dallas team in front of him, but having Ward here still bugs me. Turco/Price had the potential to be the best goalie tandem in the league, whereas Turco/Ward is merely average. Oh well....I still really like this team and think that my incredible depth will pay off nicely down the road.
A couple of weekends ago I had both of my hockey drafts. The afternoon was my regular one year pool, while in the evening was my keeper pool. You'd think that a day full of hockey drafts and pizza and X-Box and Entourage would be one of the greatest days ever, but after the dust had settled I was completely beat.
Anyways, I wanted to go over my thought process on my one year pool to share some ideas on strategies and the whatnot.
Since last year my team trainwrecked out of the gate (I was stifled by Semin, Demitra, McCabe, Justin Williams and Kevin Bieksa's ability to stay healthy early on, combined with the inability for Kipprusoff and Backstrom to not suck between the pipes) but finished fairly strong, I won the consolation round and, as per league rules, had the option to pick where I selected in the draft. I did take something away from last season, which is to never underestimate the value of depth.
I immediately thought of taking one of the top 2 picks to get Crosby or Ovechkin. Then I thought about maybe taking a mid-round pick and grabbing Brodeur or Heatley and having a better pick in the 2nd round. Then I toyed with the idea of drafting last and getting back to back picks of elite players. Ultimately I decided to map it out and see what kind of talent drops there were. I found that there were about 19 players I liked as first round type talents. That made it very easy and I decided to take the 2nd pick. This ensured me one of the big 2, while also guaranteeing I got one of my guys with my 2nd pick as well. It also solved the dilemma of having the first pick: Crosby or Ovechkin. They're fairly equal in my books, though I'd slightly prefer Ovechkin in our pool format (LW and he gets lots of shots).
So lets take a round by round look at what happened:
First Round: Sidney Crosby (C) - I was hoping Crosby would go 1st overall so I could nab Ovechkin due to his left-wingedness, but alas Ovie was selected first overall (after the guy tried trading the first overall pick in order to move up in the 4th round....which didn't seem to make any sense to me). I quickly grabbed Crosby, who is obviously the next best player in the league. I hate grabbing centres early but...well....its Crosby.
Second Round: Joe Thornton (C) - Uhh....what did I just say about centres? I was totally set on taking a goalie with this pick and the 2nd goalie on my board (Lundqvist) just about fell to me (taken just before my pick). After Lundqvist was gone, my first tier goalies were all gone so I quickly browsed the other positions and noticed that, for some reason, Joe Thornton was still available. Since Thornton is a 90-100 point player and since I'm a huge Thornton fan, I completely abandoned my centre dodging mantra and scooped him up. I mean...hey...it's Joe Thornton with the 19th pick in the draft!
Third Round: Marty Turco (G) - I definitely had to grab a keeper here because it was going to be a long wait for my next pick. Turco was the top goalie in my 2nd tier and was a pretty obvious choice. I really like the looks of the Dallas team this year and Turco is a workhorse that has stayed healthy, so this is a pretty safe lock for 35 or so wins and solid rate stats.
Fourth Round: Mike Green (D) - This was my mistake of the draft. I made a quick mental error, not taking enough time to think about what I was doing and it might end up really costing me. I wanted to grab a 2nd goalie and top D-man. Green was at the top of my 2nd tier of d-men, while Carey Price was at the top of my 3rd tier of goalies. Except I didn't really consider Price a 3rd tier goalie...I considered him somewhere between a 2nd and 3rd tier goalie. I took Green, not realizing that the guy that had back-to-back picks before my next one HAD to take a goalie and sure enough he took Price. Don't get me wrong, I like Green, but there isn't much difference between him and Brian Campbell and I surely would have gotten one of those 2 in the fifth round.
Fifth Round: Brendan Morrow (LW) - I thought of grabbing my 2nd goalie here, but noticed that my third tier of goalies was long and a pretty interchangeable bunch so I decided I could wait and still get one with my next pick. Morrow is probably one of the more underrated players because he's going to get 70-80 points, but also help out a bunch in PIMs and +/-. He also helps fill a tough-to-fill LW slot.
Sixth Round: Teemu Selanne (RW) - Selanne surprisingly got very little love this year in either of my pools. He's still an 80 point player and to get an 80 point RW at this stage in the draft is a steal. Right wing is pretty shallow this year and if you don't get in on them soon enough, you'll suffer from the severe drop in talent after the first 12 or so. This might be my favorite pick of the draft.
Seventh Round: Andrei Markov (D) - I planned on taking a goalie here but goalies were staying on the board and I had enough third tier goalies left on my list that I was pretty sure I could wait for things to come back around to me again. Making this decision easier was the fact Markov was still around, who I had ranked up there with Green and Campbell. Nice pick here, but also makes my Green pick look even that much poorer.
Eighth Round: Nathan Horton (RW) - I was going G/RW with these next two picks and noticed the guy with back-to-back picks between my picks already had two goalies so I felt pretty safe passing on Cam Ward here (the last third tier goalie on my list) and taking Horton. I love Horton this year because he's going to be the go to guy in Florida and I think he can handle it. He also adds some PIMs to the mix and helps shore up that last RW slot for me before the perilous RW talent drop.
Ninth Round: Cam Ward (G) - As mad at myself as I was about the Green/Price fiasco, I couldn't have really asked for a better plan B. I'm not huge on Ward but I don't think he's that much different from the Nik Backstrom's and Jose Theodore's of the world and I was able to nab him as late as I possibly could have. I think Carolina will have a solid team and he should rack up enough wins to make my goalies good enough.
Tenth Round: Bryan McCabe (D) - I bounced back and forth on whether McCabe was a 2nd or 3rd tier D this year, so to get him this late is a nice little roll of the dice. If he stays healthy, he should be okay manning the Panthers power play (it can't be any worse than Toronto!) and he also contributes in the PIM category, which is important considering the players I was targetting in later rounds. If he busts...meh...I'm only out a 10th rounder.
Eleventh Round: Patrik Elias (LW) - I wanted to grab a LW here just to shore up my starting line-up. Left wing is actually much deeper this year than it has been in the past and there were a lot of similar type players here. I ultimately went with Elias becuase he does have 80 point potential still and last year he struggled and still put up 55 points. He also might end up leading my team in shots.
Twelfth Round: Kristian Huselius (LW) - Speaking of similar type left wings....I was really surprised to see Huselius slide to this spot. I'm not entirely sold on him but he did put up 66 points last year despite spending an awful lot of time in Mike Keenan's doghouse. The move to Columbus won't kill his stats because he'll be lining up with Rick Nash and he'll probably get alot more ice time. A very nice third left wing to have.
Thirteenth Round: Mats Sundin (C) - At this point in the draft it gets very hard to predict what will happen and there begin to be ALOT of similar type players. It makes a lot of sense to grab a risky player with a ton of upside that people have been avoiding at this point. I grabbed Sundin because he was easily the most talented player on the board and he also seems, to me anyways, the most sure bet of all the question marks that were out there. And with Crosby and Thornton, I don't NEED Sundin to play anytime soon, though he would slot very nicely into a UTIL spot.
Fourteenth Round: Andrej Meszaros (D) - There were still a handful of decent defensemen available and I needed a fourth one so I nabbed Meszaros here. I think he's a lock for about 40 points and some PIMs, but he also has the potential for about 50 points manning a pretty good Lightning power play.
Fifteenth Round: Brian Gionta (RW) - With Selanne getting up there in age, I wanted a solid back-up right wing and Gionta scored 40 goals just a couple of years ago. He was mediocre last year but I really think Elias and Gionta are going to have bounce back seasons.
Sixteenth Round: J.M. Liles (D) - I had Liles just behind Meszaros on my rankings and figured here was as good as time as any to grab a back-up d-man. Especially considering Liles would be a starter on a lot of teams. He suffered through a horrible season last year and still managed 32 points.
Seventeenth Round: Patrice Bergeron (C) - From everything I've read, Bergeron is pretty much back 100% from his injury last season. If so, its hard to argue with grabbing a 75 point player in the 17th round.
Eighteenth Round: Patrick O'Sullivan (C) - Sully should probably pick-up LW eligibility at some point, which gives him even more value. He seems primed for a breakout season this year after a strong finish last year and 65-70 points aren't out of the question. Another great late-round value pick if you ask me.
Nineteenth Round: Kris Letang (D) - This was an educated sleeper pick. I knew Whitney was out for a few months and it looked like Gonchar was going to miss a bit of time. With Gonchar now out for 4-6 months, Letang is an absolute steal here. He'll be quarterbacking a power play unit that includes Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and with that might actually be my third or fourth best d-man.
Twentieth Round: Drew Stafford (RW) - Never a bad idea to stock up on solid right wings this year and Stafford should be in line for about 50 or so points, with potential for more if he makes a leap this year.
Twenty-first Round: Ty Conklin (G) - Osgood's owner dropped the ball by letting Conklin go undrafted to this point. With Ward and Turco being pretty consistent and healthy in the past, I put off drafting a third goalie. Conklin was a player I was quietly targetting because Osgood always seems to battle injuries and/or struggle with play and it would not be out of the question for Conklin to pick up quite a few starts. And when those starts are for Detroit, Conklin could become a top 15 goalie.
Twenty-second Round: Josh Harding (G) - Funny thing....I was also quietly targetting Harding because there is a good chance he could get alot of starts this year and Minnesota is a nice team for your goalie to be starting for. It also so happens that the Osgood owner in our league owned Backstrom as his other goalie....so now both of his handcuffs (and arguably the two most important ones in the league this year) are on my roster. This was a great pick based solely on bargaining power on a future trade, let alone Harding's potential.
Twenty-third Round: Fabian Brunnstrom (LW) - I really liked my team for the most part and I also liked my depth so I decided to take a chance on the highest upside player left. I don't anticipate much from him, but you never know and my roster is set up such that I can afford to drop him for someone else if need be. (Which I ended up doing after someone dropped Chris Higgins).
Recap
Centre - Thornton, Crosby, Sundin, Bergeron, O'Sullivan
Easily the best in the league. And if Sundin returns....WOW! The nice thing is we have two forward slots and a UTIL slot, so Bergeron will be in the starting line-up along with Sundin, if he returns.
Left Wing - Morrow, Elias, Huselius, Higgins
Not an elite group, but also not too bad and there is some depth here. I really like Morrow and am hoping Elias or Huselius has another big season left in them.
Right Wing - Selanne, Horton, Gionta, Stafford
Selanne is just about as good as any RW not taken in the first round and I really like Horton's prospects this year. If Gionta can regain his form this is another very strong unit.
Defense - Green, Markov, McCabe, Meszaros, Liles, Letang
This isn't a really flashy unit, but I think it might end up being one of the top units in our league. I really like Green and Markov as top of the line guys and I'm left with four very good options to plug into the last two slots. This gives me lots of match-up options each week and will also cushion the blow of any potential injuries.
Goaltender - Turco, Ward, Conklin, Harding
Turco is one of my favorite goalies this year because of the strong Dallas team in front of him, but having Ward here still bugs me. Turco/Price had the potential to be the best goalie tandem in the league, whereas Turco/Ward is merely average. Oh well....I still really like this team and think that my incredible depth will pay off nicely down the road.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Keeper League Goalie Ranks
The NHL is going to be starting up soon, so its time to think fantasy again. These rankings are for roto style keeper leagues with a limited number of keepers (not one year pools or dynasty leagues). For one year leagues, just bump up the veteran players a bit and bump down the youngsters and prospects. For dynasty leagues you could probably bump up the youngsters and bump up top prospects, since it makes way more sense to own Tuukka Rask than it does to own Ty Conklin (unless you're an Osgood owner).
Tier 1
Henrik Lundqvist
Roberto Luongo
Young? Yes. Talented? Yes. These are the top two goalies you want to have in any keeper league. They're pretty much neck and neck, Luongo being the more talented one but Lundqvist being on a better team, in a better situation. I would have Luongo number one if I thought the Canucks organization was headed in a better direction.
Tier 2
Carey Price
Marc Andre Fleury
Martin Brodeur
Evgeni Nabokov
Marty Turco
J.S. Giguere
Miikka Kiprusoff
Price could very easily slide into the first tier after this season (even number one overall) but he stays in Tier 2 until he's proven himself a second time around. Fleury is up this high because he is young and he's going to have a hard time not getting wins over the next 5-10 years. Brodeur is probably the top goalie for one year pools but only has a few years left, limiting his value in keeper leagues. Nabokov, Turco, Giguere and Kiprusoff are all top level goalies in or around their primes playing on pretty good teams.
Tier 3
Ryan Miller
Niklas Backstrom
Cam Ward
Ilya Bryzgalov
Chris Osgood
Kari Lehtonen
Martin Biron
Jose Theodore
Rick DiPietro
Pascal Leclaire
Cristobal Huet
Miller and Lehtonen are probably the most talented of this group. Lehtonen would be much higher if he didn't play on such a bad team. Backstrom's value, to me, is dependent on him remaining with the Wild and their defensive system. Ward is still quite young, but I don't think he'll ever become an elite goaltender. Osgood is getting old, but will have one or two very good seasons in him in Detroit. Bryzgalov, Biron and Theodore are solid veterans playing on decent (or fast improving) teams. DiPietro and Leclaire are talented youngsters, but both have dealt with a lot of injury problems. Huet always seems to be threatened by a platoon situation wherever he goes and its no different this year in Chicago.
Tier 4
Manny Legace
Martin Gerber
Peter Budaj
Vesa Toskala
Dan Ellis
Tim Thomas
Tomas Vokoun
Ty Conklin
Josh Harding
Jonathan Bernier
Mathieu Garon
Nikolai Khabibulin
Mike Smith
Olaf Kolzig
Chris Mason
Erik Ersberg
Manny Fernandez
Legace and Mason will probably form some sort of platoon, along with Kolzig and Smith. The Senators never seem to happy with Gerber, while Budaj got in the doghouse last year in Colorado and still hasn't entirely gotten out. Toskala is a talented goalie...but he plays with the pathetic Maple Leafs. Ellis is riding on one hot stretch from last year and not much else. Tim Thomas has every factor working against him in keeping his job but he has earned it so far. Conklin would be huge if Osgood got hurt. Harding could still wrestle the job away from Backstrom, which would be a plum gig. Bernier is probably the top goalie prospect and will continue climbing this list. Ersberg is probably going to start for the Kings, but his stats won't be too pretty and he'll have a short leash. Expect Boston to give Fernandez another shot to start at some point.
Tier 5
Anterro Niittymaki
Jaroslav Halak
Andrew Raycroft
Pekka Rinne
Dwayne Roloson
Tuukka Rask
Jimmy Howard
Jason LaBarbera
Michael Leighton
Ondrej Pavelec
Semen Varlamov
Alex Auld
Niittymaki and Halak would be more than serviceable options if the guys in front of them got injured or if they were traded. Raycroft used to be a pretty solid goalie and could revive his career in Colorado, ala Jose Theodore, especially since Budaj has struggled. Rinne could overtake Ellis sooner than later. Roloson is now a back-up, but a decent one likely to play more than others. Tuukka Rask is a top prospect but behind two solid NHLers right now. Howard is another prospect that could step into a very plum gig in a year or two. LaBarbera could end up the starter in LA, while Leighton was probably the best goalie in the AHL last year. Pavelec and Varlamov are top prospects that probably won't have a starting spot open for them for a couple more years. Auld could always force a goalie controversy in Ottawa....where there always seems to be a goalie controversy.
Tier 1
Henrik Lundqvist
Roberto Luongo
Young? Yes. Talented? Yes. These are the top two goalies you want to have in any keeper league. They're pretty much neck and neck, Luongo being the more talented one but Lundqvist being on a better team, in a better situation. I would have Luongo number one if I thought the Canucks organization was headed in a better direction.
Tier 2
Carey Price
Marc Andre Fleury
Martin Brodeur
Evgeni Nabokov
Marty Turco
J.S. Giguere
Miikka Kiprusoff
Price could very easily slide into the first tier after this season (even number one overall) but he stays in Tier 2 until he's proven himself a second time around. Fleury is up this high because he is young and he's going to have a hard time not getting wins over the next 5-10 years. Brodeur is probably the top goalie for one year pools but only has a few years left, limiting his value in keeper leagues. Nabokov, Turco, Giguere and Kiprusoff are all top level goalies in or around their primes playing on pretty good teams.
Tier 3
Ryan Miller
Niklas Backstrom
Cam Ward
Ilya Bryzgalov
Chris Osgood
Kari Lehtonen
Martin Biron
Jose Theodore
Rick DiPietro
Pascal Leclaire
Cristobal Huet
Miller and Lehtonen are probably the most talented of this group. Lehtonen would be much higher if he didn't play on such a bad team. Backstrom's value, to me, is dependent on him remaining with the Wild and their defensive system. Ward is still quite young, but I don't think he'll ever become an elite goaltender. Osgood is getting old, but will have one or two very good seasons in him in Detroit. Bryzgalov, Biron and Theodore are solid veterans playing on decent (or fast improving) teams. DiPietro and Leclaire are talented youngsters, but both have dealt with a lot of injury problems. Huet always seems to be threatened by a platoon situation wherever he goes and its no different this year in Chicago.
Tier 4
Manny Legace
Martin Gerber
Peter Budaj
Vesa Toskala
Dan Ellis
Tim Thomas
Tomas Vokoun
Ty Conklin
Josh Harding
Jonathan Bernier
Mathieu Garon
Nikolai Khabibulin
Mike Smith
Olaf Kolzig
Chris Mason
Erik Ersberg
Manny Fernandez
Legace and Mason will probably form some sort of platoon, along with Kolzig and Smith. The Senators never seem to happy with Gerber, while Budaj got in the doghouse last year in Colorado and still hasn't entirely gotten out. Toskala is a talented goalie...but he plays with the pathetic Maple Leafs. Ellis is riding on one hot stretch from last year and not much else. Tim Thomas has every factor working against him in keeping his job but he has earned it so far. Conklin would be huge if Osgood got hurt. Harding could still wrestle the job away from Backstrom, which would be a plum gig. Bernier is probably the top goalie prospect and will continue climbing this list. Ersberg is probably going to start for the Kings, but his stats won't be too pretty and he'll have a short leash. Expect Boston to give Fernandez another shot to start at some point.
Tier 5
Anterro Niittymaki
Jaroslav Halak
Andrew Raycroft
Pekka Rinne
Dwayne Roloson
Tuukka Rask
Jimmy Howard
Jason LaBarbera
Michael Leighton
Ondrej Pavelec
Semen Varlamov
Alex Auld
Niittymaki and Halak would be more than serviceable options if the guys in front of them got injured or if they were traded. Raycroft used to be a pretty solid goalie and could revive his career in Colorado, ala Jose Theodore, especially since Budaj has struggled. Rinne could overtake Ellis sooner than later. Roloson is now a back-up, but a decent one likely to play more than others. Tuukka Rask is a top prospect but behind two solid NHLers right now. Howard is another prospect that could step into a very plum gig in a year or two. LaBarbera could end up the starter in LA, while Leighton was probably the best goalie in the AHL last year. Pavelec and Varlamov are top prospects that probably won't have a starting spot open for them for a couple more years. Auld could always force a goalie controversy in Ottawa....where there always seems to be a goalie controversy.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Update
Leinart very well may have killed any chance of a trade happening by being a vortex of suck last night.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Football Team Update
My fantasy football league draft is tomorrow and I've just spent the past week or two totally overhauling my roster.
After our league's keeper deadline, my roster looked like this:
QB - Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart
RB - Ronnie Brown, Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor
WR - Lee Evans, Dwayne Bowe
TE - Tony Scheffler
K - Lawrence Tynes
D/ST - Washington Redskins
It's definitely not a loaded team, but I was an expansion team last year and its surprisingly decent considering the expansion draft pool consisted of rookies and players not good enough to be in the starting line-ups of a 12 team league.
Coming into this season my initial goal was to continue building around a fairly young core with the hopes of getting into the playoffs and having the kind of team that could get hot and make a run. I definitely didn't view myself as a prime contender, but thought I had enough that I could maybe get lucky.
Unfortunately the offseason happened. Jason Campbell was forced to learn a new offense. Leinart's job is somewhat shaky. Ronnie Brown is taking longer to recover from ACL surgery and was passed by Ricky Williams on the depth chart. My dumb kicker got injured. KC and Buffalo lost key components to their O-line. It was starting to look like a lost season.
My plan was never to contend this year. I wanted to be able to compete, but never expected to contend. So when it looked less likely that I would even contend, I decided to make some moves. I decided to use this season to try and accelerate the rebuilding process by moving some of my most valuable chips.
I started by dealing Mojo and my 6th and 22nd overall picks in the draft for picks 2, 9 and Jerricho Cotchery. Mojo is a good back, but its becoming apparent he's never going to be a workhorse. If he does, I fear he might be rather injury prone. However, he also has quite a bit of value right now. In exchange I received the 2nd pick, which I plan on using on Rashard Mendenhall, who has a high ceiling and plays on a run oriented offense. Cotchery is a nice throw in because he's really starting to come into his own and he now has a QB that really likes slinging the ball downfield. At the time of the trade I fully intended to use the 9th pick to take Chris Johnson from Tennesse...who I really liked. One problem: Johnson tore up the preseason and started getting hyped up and moving up draft boards.
Realizing Johnson simply wasn't falling to me at 9 anymore (especially since the guy at 7 has LenDale White), I tried moving up in the draft. I wasn't having much luck trying to package Fred Taylor and the 9th pick. Then I caught a break. A contending team was having severe bye week issues and was desperate to get his hands on a decent receiver that had a different bye week. So I moved Dwayne Bowe for the 6th pick in the draft and the team's first rounder next year. Jackpot!
My next move is to try and land a WR for Fred Taylor and or Matt Leinart. Due to the roster rules of the league, I'd have to drop Taylor to draft Chris Johnson. So if I can move Taylor for a WR, not only do I get something for Taylor, but I also pick up another roster piece without using a draft pick. And since I also kept the 9th pick, I'm looking at the possibility of drafting Aaron Rodgers if I can move Leinart. Is Rodgers a sure thing? Heck no. But he is set up to succeed in Green Bay and has a very nice ceiling there.
And that's really what these moves were all about: trying to acquire impact players for the future. Mendenhall could easily become a top 5 back. Johnson looks like a receiving beast and home run threat out of the backfield. Cotchery could very easily become a TJ Houshmandzadeh like presence at WR. Aaron Rodgers could definitely put up some big seasons with the receiving depth and O-Line in Green Bay. Will my team win this year? Probably not. But I'm building for a year or two down the road. Which is why I'm holding on to Ronnie Brown. Brown was a top 5 back last year before his injury and will likely take a year to get back to full health. Brown, Mendenhall and Johnson has the potential to be a championship backfield in a couple of years. And that's what its all about: championships.
After our league's keeper deadline, my roster looked like this:
QB - Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart
RB - Ronnie Brown, Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor
WR - Lee Evans, Dwayne Bowe
TE - Tony Scheffler
K - Lawrence Tynes
D/ST - Washington Redskins
It's definitely not a loaded team, but I was an expansion team last year and its surprisingly decent considering the expansion draft pool consisted of rookies and players not good enough to be in the starting line-ups of a 12 team league.
Coming into this season my initial goal was to continue building around a fairly young core with the hopes of getting into the playoffs and having the kind of team that could get hot and make a run. I definitely didn't view myself as a prime contender, but thought I had enough that I could maybe get lucky.
Unfortunately the offseason happened. Jason Campbell was forced to learn a new offense. Leinart's job is somewhat shaky. Ronnie Brown is taking longer to recover from ACL surgery and was passed by Ricky Williams on the depth chart. My dumb kicker got injured. KC and Buffalo lost key components to their O-line. It was starting to look like a lost season.
My plan was never to contend this year. I wanted to be able to compete, but never expected to contend. So when it looked less likely that I would even contend, I decided to make some moves. I decided to use this season to try and accelerate the rebuilding process by moving some of my most valuable chips.
I started by dealing Mojo and my 6th and 22nd overall picks in the draft for picks 2, 9 and Jerricho Cotchery. Mojo is a good back, but its becoming apparent he's never going to be a workhorse. If he does, I fear he might be rather injury prone. However, he also has quite a bit of value right now. In exchange I received the 2nd pick, which I plan on using on Rashard Mendenhall, who has a high ceiling and plays on a run oriented offense. Cotchery is a nice throw in because he's really starting to come into his own and he now has a QB that really likes slinging the ball downfield. At the time of the trade I fully intended to use the 9th pick to take Chris Johnson from Tennesse...who I really liked. One problem: Johnson tore up the preseason and started getting hyped up and moving up draft boards.
Realizing Johnson simply wasn't falling to me at 9 anymore (especially since the guy at 7 has LenDale White), I tried moving up in the draft. I wasn't having much luck trying to package Fred Taylor and the 9th pick. Then I caught a break. A contending team was having severe bye week issues and was desperate to get his hands on a decent receiver that had a different bye week. So I moved Dwayne Bowe for the 6th pick in the draft and the team's first rounder next year. Jackpot!
My next move is to try and land a WR for Fred Taylor and or Matt Leinart. Due to the roster rules of the league, I'd have to drop Taylor to draft Chris Johnson. So if I can move Taylor for a WR, not only do I get something for Taylor, but I also pick up another roster piece without using a draft pick. And since I also kept the 9th pick, I'm looking at the possibility of drafting Aaron Rodgers if I can move Leinart. Is Rodgers a sure thing? Heck no. But he is set up to succeed in Green Bay and has a very nice ceiling there.
And that's really what these moves were all about: trying to acquire impact players for the future. Mendenhall could easily become a top 5 back. Johnson looks like a receiving beast and home run threat out of the backfield. Cotchery could very easily become a TJ Houshmandzadeh like presence at WR. Aaron Rodgers could definitely put up some big seasons with the receiving depth and O-Line in Green Bay. Will my team win this year? Probably not. But I'm building for a year or two down the road. Which is why I'm holding on to Ronnie Brown. Brown was a top 5 back last year before his injury and will likely take a year to get back to full health. Brown, Mendenhall and Johnson has the potential to be a championship backfield in a couple of years. And that's what its all about: championships.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Starting Pitching Strategy
Yeah, posting this now doesn't really help much, but I thought it would be useful to post the strategy I've used for drafting pitching the last few years in my fantasy leagues.
First off, I very rarely, if ever, draft pitching early. I load up almost exclusively on hitting and then sift through the bargain bin to piece together my pitching staff. And each year there is always a handful of excellent pitching options that go way to late in the draft, if they don't get drafted at all. It seems that even to this day, people get too hung up on win loss records and suspiciously low ERA's without looking at the statistics that do a better job of measuring a pitcher's talent.
Determining a pitcher's true talent means looking at strike-out ratios, ground ball to flyball ratios and the ability to not give up home runs and walks. The last two will help lower WHIP and ERA, which should lead to more wins, while the first one leads to strike outs. And since strike outs are a category, we should be looking at high strike out pitchers with decent command that can keep the ball in the park.
If you really want to simplify this thing for yourself, just get a list of each pitcher's K/9 (strike outs per 9 innings). The higher the K/9, the more you should be targeting that pitcher. If you factor in the other peripherals, you can weed out a few more pitchers and you should be left with a list of guys to target.
At the start of the year I basically divided my list of targeted pitchers into two. The first one was guys that were known studs that were likely to be drafted quite high and thus, I wasn't specifically targeting them unless they slipped. This list has some pretty obvious names and looked as follows:
Johan Santana
Jake Peavy
Erik Bedard
Cole Hamels
Josh Beckett
Scott Kazmir
Justin Verlander
Carlos Zambrano
Felix Hernandez
Chris Young
John Lackey
Brandon Webb
John Smoltz
Dan Haren
All those guys are pretty safe bets to post big years if they remain healthy. Of course staying healthy for any pitcher is difficult so its hard to invest an early pick in them. And to drive the point home Lackey, Smoltz, Young, Beckett, Bedard and Peavy have all spent time battling injuries this year. That's almost half the list.
My second list is comprised of guys that have similar peripheral stats as the guys above, but have question marks surrounding them. This causes them to fall late in the draft, but also means they can bring incredible value. This list looks like:
Aaron Harang - Should be on the list above but still doesn't get respect.
Tim Lincecum - Incredible talent, but young and "unproven" and there are durability concerns.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - Wasn't phenomenal last year so lot's of people soured on him in fantasy.
Francisco Liriano - Coming off Tommy John surgery.
Yovani Gallardo - Young and stats from last year look bad because of two horrible starts.
A.J. Burnett - Injury prone.
Ben Sheets - Unable to stay off the DL.
Brett Myers - Struggled at times last year.
Javier Vazquez - Still considered a bust from his days as a Yankee.
Rich Harden - The definition of injury prone.
James Shields - Some people think last year was a fluke.
Rich Hill - Fluke?
Oliver Perez - Seems to be a head case.
Ian Snell - Pitches for the Pirates.
Chad Billingsley - Young and unproven.
Clay Buchholz - See Chad Billingsley.
Ervin Santana - Bad year last year.
Zack Greinke - Pitches for the Royals, head case.
Randy Wolf - Coming off of surgery/mediocre season.
Joba Chamberlain - Started the season in the bullpen.
From the above list Harden, Billingsley, Sheets, Lincecum, Matsuzaka, Santana, Chamberlain, Greinke and Shields have all pitched rather well. I happen to own those players on most of the teams I drafted this year. Harang, Wolf, Vazquez and Burnett have been solid for the most part. The rest of the bunch has either succumbed to inury (Gallardo, Liriano) or lost effectiveness (Myers, Hill, Perez) or in the case of Buchholz, been the victim of the roster numbers crunch.
So for this list we have what is close to a 50% success rate as well. That's pretty similar to the list of well established top line starters. And players like Harden, Sheets, Lincecum, Matsuzaka and Chamberlain all have elite-level potential when healthy.
Taking a bunch of fliers on these types of pitchers works well in mixed leagues because if you lose a couple to the injury bug, there are usually serviceable options on the waiver wire. And in the case of elite pitchers like Harden and Sheets, even if they only stay healthy for the first few months, they still provide lots of strike outs and keep your WHIP and ERA nice and low. If they get injured again you can cut them and not worry about the high draft pick you wasted on them.
The strategy does not work quite so well in deep leagues or AL/NL only leagues. In those leagues, the waiver wire depth is far poorer and you want to focus on reliable pitchers that are most likely to last the season without any issues. That's when a guy like Roy Halladay becomes a lot more valuable.
First off, I very rarely, if ever, draft pitching early. I load up almost exclusively on hitting and then sift through the bargain bin to piece together my pitching staff. And each year there is always a handful of excellent pitching options that go way to late in the draft, if they don't get drafted at all. It seems that even to this day, people get too hung up on win loss records and suspiciously low ERA's without looking at the statistics that do a better job of measuring a pitcher's talent.
Determining a pitcher's true talent means looking at strike-out ratios, ground ball to flyball ratios and the ability to not give up home runs and walks. The last two will help lower WHIP and ERA, which should lead to more wins, while the first one leads to strike outs. And since strike outs are a category, we should be looking at high strike out pitchers with decent command that can keep the ball in the park.
If you really want to simplify this thing for yourself, just get a list of each pitcher's K/9 (strike outs per 9 innings). The higher the K/9, the more you should be targeting that pitcher. If you factor in the other peripherals, you can weed out a few more pitchers and you should be left with a list of guys to target.
At the start of the year I basically divided my list of targeted pitchers into two. The first one was guys that were known studs that were likely to be drafted quite high and thus, I wasn't specifically targeting them unless they slipped. This list has some pretty obvious names and looked as follows:
Johan Santana
Jake Peavy
Erik Bedard
Cole Hamels
Josh Beckett
Scott Kazmir
Justin Verlander
Carlos Zambrano
Felix Hernandez
Chris Young
John Lackey
Brandon Webb
John Smoltz
Dan Haren
All those guys are pretty safe bets to post big years if they remain healthy. Of course staying healthy for any pitcher is difficult so its hard to invest an early pick in them. And to drive the point home Lackey, Smoltz, Young, Beckett, Bedard and Peavy have all spent time battling injuries this year. That's almost half the list.
My second list is comprised of guys that have similar peripheral stats as the guys above, but have question marks surrounding them. This causes them to fall late in the draft, but also means they can bring incredible value. This list looks like:
Aaron Harang - Should be on the list above but still doesn't get respect.
Tim Lincecum - Incredible talent, but young and "unproven" and there are durability concerns.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - Wasn't phenomenal last year so lot's of people soured on him in fantasy.
Francisco Liriano - Coming off Tommy John surgery.
Yovani Gallardo - Young and stats from last year look bad because of two horrible starts.
A.J. Burnett - Injury prone.
Ben Sheets - Unable to stay off the DL.
Brett Myers - Struggled at times last year.
Javier Vazquez - Still considered a bust from his days as a Yankee.
Rich Harden - The definition of injury prone.
James Shields - Some people think last year was a fluke.
Rich Hill - Fluke?
Oliver Perez - Seems to be a head case.
Ian Snell - Pitches for the Pirates.
Chad Billingsley - Young and unproven.
Clay Buchholz - See Chad Billingsley.
Ervin Santana - Bad year last year.
Zack Greinke - Pitches for the Royals, head case.
Randy Wolf - Coming off of surgery/mediocre season.
Joba Chamberlain - Started the season in the bullpen.
From the above list Harden, Billingsley, Sheets, Lincecum, Matsuzaka, Santana, Chamberlain, Greinke and Shields have all pitched rather well. I happen to own those players on most of the teams I drafted this year. Harang, Wolf, Vazquez and Burnett have been solid for the most part. The rest of the bunch has either succumbed to inury (Gallardo, Liriano) or lost effectiveness (Myers, Hill, Perez) or in the case of Buchholz, been the victim of the roster numbers crunch.
So for this list we have what is close to a 50% success rate as well. That's pretty similar to the list of well established top line starters. And players like Harden, Sheets, Lincecum, Matsuzaka and Chamberlain all have elite-level potential when healthy.
Taking a bunch of fliers on these types of pitchers works well in mixed leagues because if you lose a couple to the injury bug, there are usually serviceable options on the waiver wire. And in the case of elite pitchers like Harden and Sheets, even if they only stay healthy for the first few months, they still provide lots of strike outs and keep your WHIP and ERA nice and low. If they get injured again you can cut them and not worry about the high draft pick you wasted on them.
The strategy does not work quite so well in deep leagues or AL/NL only leagues. In those leagues, the waiver wire depth is far poorer and you want to focus on reliable pitchers that are most likely to last the season without any issues. That's when a guy like Roy Halladay becomes a lot more valuable.
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