With my fantasy football draft a little over a month away, it's time to start preparing. In the next few weeks I have to browse through all kinds of scouting reports, depth charts, columns and player rankings to develop a strategy for my draft. I'm participating in two leagues competetively this year: one is a newly starting keeper league and the other I join as an expansion team.
My expansion team is off to a good start so far. We were assigned expansion draft picks to take place before the regular draft (after each team kept 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 WR/RB, 1 TE, 1 DEF, 1 K). However, we were able to trade these picks and I was blown away at the trades I was able to make. First off, its a 12 team league with 4 expansion teams. I wasn't anticipating landing any decent players because if the other owners were competent the top 12 QBs, WRs and TEs would all be unavailable to me as well as the top 24 RBs. My goal with trading my top picks, if I was going to, was to land players I had ranked anywhere above the 12th (or 24th) ranked player on my rankings list.
I was able to land two players I have ranked as being first round picks in re-draft leagues: Ronnie Brown and Maurice Jones-Drew. That was simply too good to pass up. If I had the 16th pick and this was our first season, I'd be elated taking Brown and Drew in rounds 1 and 2. I also landed Lee Evans at WR for another expansion pick. I'm not a huge Evans fan but he's significantly better than anybody else I would have gotten at WR. I then traded a late pick for Jason Campbell (essentially hedging my bets in case the league goes QB happy in the draft...I wanted to make sure I had an okay option). However, I then landed Matt Leinart for another expansion pick, so Campbell is probably kicked to the curb (although I'd have traded the pick I sent in the Leinart deal along with the pick I sent for Campbell as a package for Leinart). I've also got Heath Miller for a very late and inconsequential pick, so I like how my team is shaking out. I'm crossing my fingers that a few under the radar guys I like fall to me in the draft for depth, but I don't mind my starting line-up so far.
Anyways, much like with baseball, I'm going to take a position by position approach to fantasy football drafts. While I'm not going to say there are hard and fast rules I stand firmly behind when it comes to draft strategies, there are definitely some trends that I take into deep consideration.
First up is the quarterback position. While it is the marquee position in real football, it takes a back seat to running back in fantasy football. There's also one rule you need to take in consideration when ranking your quarterbacks: a good NFL quarterback is not necessarily a good fantasy quarterback. Conversely, a bad NFL quarterback is not necessarily a bad fantasy quarterback (see Jon Kitna or a couple years ago's Brett Favre).
The big question every year is what to do with Peyton Manning. Is he a first round pick? When should you take him? Truth be told, I don't concern myself too much with this debate because in all of my experiences, someone reaches early for Peyton Manning. If I have an early pick in the first round, I'm always going RB. If I have a late pick (say 7 or 8) when I'd maybe have to consider Manning, someone has already picked him. The major issue with taking Manning is that usually it's at the end of the first round. This means you don't get your 2nd running back until the late 20th pick, which often leaves slim pickings. Although, I'd take Manning early second round, if you want my opinion.
So now that we've got that cleared, what about the rest of the field? Where do they rank? Well, to make this easier, I like to rank each position into tiers. That way, when you're drafting, you know when to grab a position. Lots of good tier 2 WRs on the board and only one tier 2 QB left? Take the QB! So without further adieu....
Tier 1
1.) Peyton Manning - Obviously. Highly skilled, very consistent and in a great system. HAS to be the top QB taken.
2.) Carson Palmer - Palmer is the one guy that might overtake Manning. Still, you can't take him ahead of Manning.
Tier 2
3.) Donovan McNabb - Higher than most people have him. Appears to be recovering well from injury and was actually the top fantasy QB pre-injury last year.
4.) Tom Brady - Finally added some good WRs. Still, I don't think he'll see a huge boost in his numbers because New England has always been a pass friendly offense that has thrived without premiere talent.
5.) Marc Bulger - Three great receivers to throw to and a good TE. Oh...and Steven Jackson catching passes out of the backfield.
6.) Drew Brees - I have Brees lower than most because I'm simply not buying into Marques Colston or the rest of New Orleans receiving corps. That and I think the running game vultures more TD scores this year.
7.) Jon Kitna - Remember what I said about bad NFL QBs still being good fantasy QBs? Kitna plays in a Mike Martz offense with two explosive receivers and a sure handed third option.
Tier 3
8.) Matt Hasselbeck - I think Hasselbeck still has a year or two of productive football left in him. Seattle has always been a good passing offense under him.
9.) Tony Romo - Sure, he might be overrated, but he is still throwing to some excellent receivers that can make things happen.
10.) Matt Leinart - A highly polished young QB that has two of the most explosive receivers in the NFL to throw to. Only concern is the O-Line.
11.) Jay Cutler - Another highly polished young QB, Cutler has a better line in front of him but lacks the big time receivers.
12.) Eli Manning - It's easy to hate on Manning. For non-Giants fans its his last name. For Giants fans its his ill-timed interceptions. Still, he's a talented arm and should produce.
Tier 4
13.) Vince Young - Much of his value last season was tied up in his rushing TDs. Those aren't always replicated and I'm not sure the receivers in Tennessee are going to do him many favors.
14.) Philip Rivers - A good young QB that just lacks the weapons to be ranked higher.
15.) Michael Vick - I'll admit that I may have been wrong with Vick...he may be an underrated fantasy QB. Still, I have him here because of potential legal and injury issues.
16.) Jake Delhomme - Delhomme was a different QB without Steve Smith. Fortunately, Steve Smith is healthy again.
17.) Brett Favre - Favre can still be a useful fantasy option when the match-up is right, as the gunslinger INT's he throws don't penalize you as much.
18.) Alex Smith - Smith finally has some decent weapons to use with Gore, Jackson and Davis.
19.) Ben Roehtlisberger - Perhaps overrated (by a lot, IMO), Roethlisberger can still be a serviceable option as a back-up QB.
Tier 5
20.) J.P. Losman - Made some decent strides last year into becoming a potential option. Could still use a good 2nd receiver.
21.) Jason Campbell - This might be too low, but it's just too hard to put him any higher based on sample size. Could have bottom Tier 3 upside potential considering the offensive weapons that surround him.
22.) Rex Grossman - Would be higher, as he does have potential for big weeks, but his inconsistency killed fantasy teams last year.
23.) Chad Pennington - Pennington was never an elite QB option and age and injury concerns will continue pushing him further down the rankings each year.
24.) Byron Leftwich - Should be starting in Jacksonville. I think he's more talented than most people give him credit for but lacks any reliable receiving options.
25.) Matt Schaub - Should post some okay totals throwing to Andre Johnson. Still not sold on him and Houston has never been known for its O-Line.
26.) Trent Green - Just last year Green was viewed as a serviceable option as a starting fantasy QB. He's a fantasy back-up now, but could put up some solid games.
Tier 6
27.) Steve McNair - Face it...McNair is done. Even if he had some great receivers I'd still avoid him at this point in his career.
28.) Damon Huard - Was alright as a sub last year. Would be higher if the Chiefs didn't seem so committed to making Brodie Croyle the starter.
29.) Jeff Garcia - Last year was the anamoly. Garcia has been done for a few years and I don't expect much of resurgence, if any.
30.) Tarvaris Jackson - Didn't look too good last year in spot duty and I was absolutely shocked the Vikings never even tried to upgrade at this position. His upside could put him much higher than this, but I'm not about to take the risk to find out.
31.) Charlie Frye/Derek Anderson - This appears to be a dead even race for the starting QB job in Cleveland and whomever wins should be serviceable, but consistent playing time will be hard to come by.
32.) JaMarcus Russell/Josh McCown - Even if you could predict who the starting QB for Oakland would be, would you really want to start him?
Tier 7 - The Rest
Brodie Croyle
Chris Simms
David Garrard
Duante Culpepper
Brady Quinn
A.J. Feely
Aaron Rodgers
Cleo Lemon
Brooks Bollinger
So when do you draft a QB? That depends, really. My motto tends to be grab two RBs early and then draft the best talent available.
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