We here at Visions of Joe Thornton have one piece of wisdom to impart on the masses: don't get too wrapped up in bold and trendy predictions from the so called experts. Magazines and websites usually go out of their way to make these bold predictions so that the next year they can gloat about how they were "correct about Maurice Jones-Drew." What they fail to tell you is that a couple years ago they were dead wrong about J.J. Arrington. Or they were wrong about Roddy White last year. And so on and so on.
So when we set up the rankings here, we take a much more conservative approach. Remember, every player that starts getting pegged as a trendy sleeper quickly becomes overrated and almost ALWAYS gets drafted to early. Don't be that guy. A true sleeper is a guy that is not getting any attention as a "sleeper" and thus will likely fly way under the radar. Same goes for players labelled as potential busts. Sure, there is some concern in drafting Larry Johnson, but are you really going to take Frank Gore ahead of him? Last year people started getting way too overcritical of LaDanian Tomlinson and the guy slipped to the 2nd-4th picks of a lot of drafts.
But I'll save my true sleepers column for another day. Today we're going to look at perhaps the hardest position to rank: WR. There is so much variance in WR from year to year that it's really hard to say with any certainty who's the top WR to target. Or even the top 10. But I'm going to try. The key to these rankings is the tiers....within a tier I don't think there is much difference between the top guy and the bottom guy...it's essentially a crapshoot.
Tier 1
1.) Steve Smith - When healthy this guy is unstoppable. A bit of a risk but also has the 2nd highest upside of any receiver this year.
2.) Marvin Harrison - The opposite of Smith. Probably the safest bet at the position. You know what you're getting with him, with perhaps a small decline.
3.) Chad Johnson - Frustrating to own last year (weeks of no production followed by a few massive weeks). I think Johnson becomes a bit more consistent game to game this year.
4.) Terrell Owens - Although he's a risky pick, Owens' upside makes him worth the gamble here.
5.) Reggie Wayne - Another very safe pick at receiver. Perhaps the least upside of this group but you know what you're getting, which is always a good thing in fantasy.
6.) Larry Fitzgerald - I had to talk myself out of NOT putting Fitzgerald at one. He has the most talent and upside but lacks the system and QB for this year.
7.) Roy Williams - The addition of Calvin Johnson helps, not hinders, Roy Williams this year. Johnson will draw some multiple coverages opening up more field for Williams.
8.) Torry Holt - My top receiver last year, Holt drops a bit after it looked like age took a bite out of his production.
Tier 2
9.) T.J. Houshmandzadeh - The Housh is a pretty consistent option but lacks the serious upside of the above guys with Chad Johnson ahead of him on the roster.
10.) Anquan Boldin - Only thing wrong with Boldin last year was the lack of TD's, which is a high variance statistic for WR. Strong yardage totals is more an indicator of his talent.
11.) Lee Evans - J.P. Losman started resembling an NFL QB last year and Evans exploded. Long regarded as one of the most talented young receivers in the league, Evans looks to have found his groove.
12.) Donald Driver - Brett Favre is going to air the ball out alot. Driver is not penalized by the INTs and stands to rack up lots of yardage.
13.) Andre Johnson - Would possibly be higher if I had more confidence in Matt Schaub as a starting QB.
14.) Javon Walker - He looks to have recovered well from knee problems and should be a fine option this year.
15.) Randy Moss - Trendy pick this year but there is no reason to believe he'll approach the numbers he did with the Vikings. He'll be better than last year though, for sure.
16.) Marques Colston - I'm just not very high on Colston. That being said, anybody posting those kinds of numbers as a rookie has to be put into the second tier. Will likely get drafted ahead of many better receivers.
Tier 3
17.) Deion Branch - I love Branch this year...especially considering where he's going in fantasy drafts. The top receiver in a pass happy offense with a good QB and great co-ordinator.
18.) Plaxico Burress - Good downfield threat playing with a strong armed QB.
19.) Darrell Jackson - Solid possession type receiver but moving to a less receiver friendly team. Has been getting drafted way too early IMO.
20.) Laveraneus Coles - Weak armed QB really deflates value of this talented receiver.
21.) Santana Moss - Look for a bounce back now that Brunell isn't underthrowing him all the time.
22.) Reggie Brown - The Eagles play in a pass friendly system and Brown is the most talented receiver.
23.) Calvin Johnson - Possesses Tier 1 upside but I don't think we'll see it this year. Great player to take a flyer on if the price is right.
24.) Hines Ward - Continues to decline but is still a durable and reliable receiving option.
25.) Mark Clayton - Underrated receiver that would really benefit if he ever got the opportunity to play with a QB that didn't completely suck.
26.) Braylon Edwards - Cleveland should have a better offense this year and Edwards should post decent numbers. Have him as a fringe tier 3/4 player and am giving him the benefit of the doubt putting him here.
Tier 4
27.) Terry Glenn - Just keeps producing...long after you thought he was completely done. One of the least sexiest (yet solid) picks you could make at WR this year.
28.) Donte Stallworth - Excellent talent and high ceiling but he can't seem to stay healthy.
29.) Chris Chambers - Possesses the talent to be in a higher tier but isn't playing on a great offense for wide receivers.
30.) Jericho Cotchery - A solid option as a WR2/3 on your team.
31.) Jerry Porter - Ridiculous upside but also risky. Makes a great end of the draft gamble.
32.) Bernard Berrian - Seems to be a relatively talented receiver but is hampered by Rex Grossman's level of suckitude.
33.) Vincent Jackson - One of those trendy sleepers probably being overvalued. Top receiver in San Diego and should be good for at least 800 yards and 5-7 TDs.
34.) Greg Jennings - Packers WRs are fantasy gold as long as Brett Favre is still around slinging the ball long, far and recklessly.
35.) Joey Galloway - Frustrating to own....big week one week then zero catches the next. Age is also becoming a big issue.
36.) Isaac Bruce - Aging Rams vet posted a solid year last year and looks to hold onto the number 2 job again this year.
37.) Mushin Muhammed - Had a solid season last year. Still has enough talent to be extremely valuable if Rex Grossman stops sucking.
38.) Santonio Holmes - Solid rookie season yardage wise and will likely take on a much bigger role. Could be poised for a breakout.
Tier 5
38.) D.J. Hackett - Hackett is expected to slide into the number two receiver spot in the pass happy Seattle offense.
39.) Joe Horn - The most reliable receiver on the Falcons this year.
40.) Drew Bennett - Will likely start the year as the third receiver in St. Louis but should see enough snaps to be a quasi-number two receiver in a great passing offense.
41.) Ronald Curry - Gifted receiver that would be higher if he had a reliable QB.
42.) Kevin Curtis - Should see a lot more playing time in Philly this year as the number two guy.
43.) Eddie Kennison - A very poor man's version of Marvin Harrisson....you basically now Kennison is good for about 800 yds receiving and 4-5 TDs.
44.) Brandon Marshall - A high upside pick that would be a bit higher if there weren't so many question marks.
45.) Brandon Jones - I hate endorsing a receiver with "someone in Tennessee has to catch passes from Vince Young" but, well, someone does, right?
46.) Derrick Mason - Never an explosive receiver, age is catching up to Mason quickly. Still the first guy McNair looks for, though.
47.) Mike Furrey - Value took a big hit with the acquisition of Calvin Johnson. Could still have reasonable value, though.
Tier 6
48.) Dwayne Bowe - Should win a starting job in KC and have a serviceable rookie season.
49.) Matt Jones - Probably the best receiving option in a lackluster Jags passing game.
50.) Marty Booker - A limited upside receiver that shouldn't have a problem getting about 700 yards and a few scores.
51.) Robert Meachem - A bit of an injury risk but likely slots in as the number two receiver in New Orleans if healthy.
52.) Anthony Gonzalez - Likely the third receiver for the Colts, which never hurts a rookie's value.
53.) Devery Henderson - If he wins a starting job in training camp he should likely be moved up a tier.
54.) Reggie Williams - Enigmatic former first rounder that is, sadly, option 1B in the Jags passing offence.
55.) Bobby Wade - Likely the Vikes number one receiver. Man it sucks to be a Vikes fan.
56.) Troy Williamson - Speedy receiver could improve in this, his third season (usually the year most young receivers take a big step forward).
57.) Ashley Lelie - Was once a promising young receiver that somehow developed an attitude problem. Could potentially turn it around.
58.) Sinorice Moss - If he forces Toomer to the bench he could have a breakout season.
59.) Dwayne Jarrett - The favorite to win the number two job in Carolina.
60.) Chris Henry - Will be suspended for the first half of the season but would be a decent pick-up or roster stash away for the fantasy playoffs.
61.) Rod Smith - Most likely done at this point in his career, could still pull down a few TDs as a reliable handed red zone target.
62.) Joe Jurevicius - The complement to Braylon Edwards in Cleveland.
63.) Michael Jenkins - Might have some value for the Falcons...maybe.
64.) Bryant Johnson - Gifted third receiver in Arizona.
65.) Eric Parker - Likely number two receiver in San Diego.
66.) Sidney Rice - Appears to be challenging Williamson for the number two job in Minnesota.
67.) Amani Toomer - Done. But the Giants keep trotting him out there.
68.) Craig Davis - Raw yet gifted athlete that could steal playing time for the Chargers.
69.) Nate Burleson - Gifted receiver that might get another shot in Seattle this year.
70.) Wes Welker - Versatile receiver that will likely return kicks and punts (if your league awards that sort of thing.)
71.) Antwan Randle El - Overrated as a fantasy player but one would think he's getting paid too much money not to be given a rather fair shake.
72.) Keenan McCardell - Just signed with the Texans and will likely be the number two receiver if things work out.
73.) Ernest Wilford - Could sneak into the Jacksonville starting WR equation.
74.) Patrick Crayton - Third receiver in an underrated offence. Could see more time if Terry Glenn succumbs to age or Terrell Owens goes all Terrell Owens this year.
75.) Michael Clayton - Showed a lot of talent in his rookie season so its just a matter of whether he can fall in favor of the coaching staff and/or whomever becomes Tampa's starting QB.
The rest (in no particular order)
Arnaz Battle (SF)
Terrance Copper (NO)
Kevin Walter (HOU)
Nate Washington (PIT)
Roddy White (ATL)
Drew Carter (CAR)
Hank Baskett (PHI)
Demetrius Williams (BAL)
Ted Ginn (MIA)
Maurice Stovall (TB)
Peerless Price (BUF)
Reche Caldwell (NE)
Sammie Parker (KC)
Brandon Lloyd (WAS)
Travis Taylor (OAK)
Jacoby Jones (HOU)
Dennis Northcutt (JAX)
When do you draft a wide receiver? Not in the first two rounds, I'll tell you that. There is FAR too much depth and the top of the WR pool to reach for a WR in the 2nd round. Grab your two RBs first and then consider a WR in rounds 3, 4, and/or 5. You need to grab a back-up running back or two in there and if the right QB is sitting around you could consider one in one of those rounds, too. In almost every draft some very serviceable WRs will slip and can be picked up. They might not have the lustre of a Reggie Wayne or Anquan Boldin, but guys like Deion Branch, Santana Moss, Terry Glenn and Mark Clayton can all be starting WRs on a championship team.
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