Monday, July 2, 2007

A Weird Draft.....


I recently participated in an online, winner's league draft (in order to be allowed to join, you had to have won a league through the same website last year). As per usual, I ended up with the 10th pick (every draft except one I've been given that 10th pick...that other time I got the 7th pick! WOOO!)

As I prepared to decide between Laurence Maroney, Ronnie Brown, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush and/or Travis Henry, I started noticing a weird thing happening. Peyton Manning went at 2. Followed by Tom Brady at 3. I started thinking a Joseph Addai or Shaun Alexander might fall. Then, when they were both taken I noticed Frank Gore's name still on the board and with two picks before mine. Could it possibly....I mean....no.....Gore won't fall to me at 10. Then the 8th pick took Clinton Portis.

"I thought this was a winner's league," I contemplated to myself, "no way Gore slips past 9. Who could they even fathom picking ahead of Gore here....a reach on Reggie Bush or Carson Palmer or a WR?"

Then the 9th pick took the Chicago Bears defence. While I'd normally be stunned by such a terrible pick, I was too busy clicking on Frank Gore's name and then selecting draft, as if it were to good to be true and if I didn't act fast enough, I'd awake from some dream. This was only the start of a draft that used standard scoring, yet completely ignored the running back position. For example, one team didn't draft a RB until the 5th round and still ended up with Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones and Fred Taylor as his top 3 backs (not that you're going to win a championship with those three backs, but most drafts would see him with a backfield of Carnell Williams, Tatum Bell and Ladell Betts if he waits that long.) Let's take a look at my picks, which were ridiculously RB heavy.

1.) Frank Gore (RB) - Frank Gore has not fallen out of the top 5 in any draft I've participated in. In fact, the only thing that has prevented him from going top 4 is someone reaching on Peyton Manning. Needless to say, getting him at 10 is the equivalent of getting LaDanian Tomlinson at 3.

2.) Willie Parker (RB) - Since Gore was still around at 10, there was also a good chance another first round back was there at the 11th pick. I went with Willie Parker over Rudi Johnson just because I think Cincy is conjuring up some plan to soon replace Rudi. Kinda like they did just before Corey Dillon hit the wrong side of his prime.

3.) Ronnie Brown (RB) - Brown slipped to the end of the 3rd round and I just couldn't pass on him because, well, I have him as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick.

4.) T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR) - My "sleeper" from last year that exceeded even my expectations, The Housh was the best receiver left on the board and there were no good QBs left on the board. It was hard NOT taking Cedric Benson or Travis Henry with this pick, even though I already had 3 RBs.

5.) Travis Henry (RB) - I really had to resist taking Henry at the start of Round 4 so there was no way I was passing on him at the end of round 5. I now have 4 top of the top 15 players on my draft board, even if 4 of them are RBs. Never hurts to have that sort of depth and/or trading chips.

6.) Deion Branch (WR) - I think Branch is the most underrated receiver this year. He is the undisputed number one receiver in a very good passing offense (Seattle). I think people forget last year's numbers were down because he missed training camp and took awhile to adjust both physically and to a new system. Great value here.

7.) Chris Chambers (WR) - This guy still has talent and I think Miami has a much better passing offense this year. He was also the last receiver in my tier before we get to the aging and/or unproven group of receivers, which is really a huge crap shoot as to whether they will have value or not.

8.) Brandon Jacobs (RB) - I didn't want to pick another RB here but, well, Brandon Jacobs in the 8th round!?!?! Last year everyone was drooling over what this guy would do if given the starting job. Now, all of a sudden, everyone has soured on him. The fact remains that he's a starting RB on a serviceable offence and he will get his touches.

9.) Tony Romo (QB) - Considering how quickly starting QBs flew off the board in this draft, I was happy enough to get the serviceable Romo here. He should go well with my next pick to form a QB rotation I can play based on match-ups.

10.) Eli Manning (QB) - Sure, he may be overrated as a real QB, but I actually think he is underrated in fantasy. He plays in a decent offense that will likely pass alot more without Tiki in the mix. Gets his TDs and yardage which helps offset the real football killing INTs.

11.) L.J. Smith (TE) - I think this guy is being underrated, especially in PPR leagues if Donovan McNabb stays healthy. McNabb loves throwing to this guy and he usually ends up with more catches than the leading receiver in Philly.

12.) Randy McMichael (TE) - A bit of an off year last year, except this year he goes from the floundering, Harrington/Culpepper passing offence of the Dolphins and moves to the pass happy, Marc Bulger led passing offence. Look for a return to previous production levels.

13.) Joe Horn (WR) - Horn isn't getting younger but he does have reliable hands, something that cannot be said for the rest of the Falcons receiving corps. Look for him to get some looks in the red zone and pull down some TDs, at the least.

14.) Anthony Gonzalez (WR) - I took Horn from the aging receiver group and decided to take a chance on a young player on an explosive offence that could provide "Brandon Stokely from a couple years ago" type production.

15.) Jerious Norwood (RB) - Yes...ANOTHER RB. I think Warrick Dunn is finally...well....done. So I took a flyer on the solid Norwood with the last pick in the draft.

Why did I draft so many backs? Because an injury to a premiere back often kills your team. However, you can usually find some serviceable options at the other positions (especially WR) if you get struck by the injury bug. At the very worst, I can trade players like Travis Henry, Ronnie Brown and Brandon Jacobs if they start off well and get above value WRs or a stud QB.

The other thing you may notice from this draft is that I didn't draft a kicker or a defence. This is a strategy I'm applying more and more since I usually wait to the last two rounds to address these positions, anyways. It's still hard to distinguish which mid-level kickers are playing on the best offences (or even going to make their teams!) and it's also hard to gauge which defences are going to be the best this season. So instead of picking a Seattle defence and Josh Brown in the last two rounds, I'm picking some high upside players that could be huge at key positions (Norwood and Gonzalez) and then picking up a Matt Stover or Josh Scobee and a Buffalo or Atlanta defence right before the season starts. If Norwood and/or Gonzalez impress in the preseason and win prominent roles (or, say, Marvin Harrison gets injured), I'll keep these two players and drop Joe Horn and try and package Brandon Jacobs in a trade to create roster space for a defence and kicker. If they fail to impress, I can drop them and pick up my D and kicker.

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