Kevin Lowe: Official Moron

We here at Visions of Joe Thornton strongly believe that a team's GM is highly responsible for the sustained success of any sports franchise. It is why we hold someone like Billy Beane in such high regard. Sure, he hasn't won the big one yet but nearly every year he puts his team in a position to have a shot, even when it seems the deck is stacked against him more than ever. It's also why we consider Dave Littlefield one of the worst GM's in baseball. His latest trade for Matt Morris was inexcusable, especially considering Littlefield is now on the hook for the $14.5 million owed Morris over the next year and a half. He gave Brian Sabean a get out of jail free card for one of the worst free agent signings at the time.

So where does Kevin Lowe fit in amongst all of this? Well, clearly he fits into the Dave Littlefield mold. I used to give Lowe the benefit of the doubt but with this off season I can no longer do that. Lowe simply does not have the patience or foresight to see how his decisions affect the long term prospects of the Oilers franchise. It all started with the Dwayne Roloson trade (probably before that but this is when I first started questioning the guy). He traded a first rounder and change for an aging, soon to be free agent, platoon goalie. It looked horrible at the time but Roloson did play lights out and helped carry the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Finals that year. If you make a mortgaging the future and end up with a shot like that, it's probably worth it.

Then came the Pronger fiasco. Sure, Pronger forced Lowe's hand somewhat, but Lowe also had the right to refuse to give in to Pronger's demands. It's hard to believe Lowe couldn't have got more for a top five defenceman signed to a very reasonable contract at the tail end of the prime of his career from somebody else. It wasn't Joe Thornton bad, obviously, but it was still a pretty weak return. And instead of investing the money saved by dealing Pronger, Lowe stood pat with a very weak defensive corps going into the season. Lowe also made the fatal mistake of overpaying Fernando Pisani because of a good two week stretch in the playoffs last year.

During last season, Lowe and the Oilers became increasingly frustrated with the play of Marc-Andre Bergeron. Lowe then made the egregious error of selling low on a talented young player, shipping Bergeron to the Islanders for a sort-of prospect that might spend his career in Europe. Bergeron found his groove in New York and played very well down the stretch last year. The Ryan Smyth trade was excusable....if Lowe wasn't going to resign him he had to trade him for something. The Oilers weren't making the playoffs, so keeping Smyth for the stretch accomplished nothing. Sure, the trade sent the Oilers into a downward spiral but I don't think the absence of Smyth's leadership was to blame (as the media played it out to be). Instead, it was more than likely due to a significant lack of talent. Look at the roster...it's not good.

This offseason has been one step forward, three steps back for Lowe and the Oilers. First off, they decided their main problem last year was a lack of offensive prowess on the blue line. So they decided to ship out any defenceman that knew how to play defence and brought in six players that, while offensively gifted, are quite irresponsible in their own end. I'm sure the near 40 year old Roloson is going to enjoy all the prime scoring opportunities from the opposition!

Lowe failed to address the real problems: consistent play in their own end from the defence and some forwards that can consistently find the back of the net. The forwards could have been partially addressed in house: Lupul had a down season but is still very young and very talented. Hemsky just needs a good sniper to pass to. Robbie Schremp is waiting in the wings (along with Robert Nilsson) and if the Oilers are so unconcerned about the lack of defensive play from their defense corps, why are they so concerned about Schremp and Nilsson's defensive shortcomings?

So what do the Oilers do? They panic. They flip one of their talented forwards (Lupul) along with their best defensive d-man (by far) in Jason Smith for the offensive minded d-man Joni Pitkanen and Geoff Sanderson (who has a fork protruding from his back). They brought back Dick Tarnstrom who can't play in his own end to save his life.

The one smart move they made was signing Thomas Vanek to a huge offer sheet. Vanek is an elite goal scorer that would have made a huge impact playing with Hemsky on the top line. Not only would Vanek have proven to be worth the money, he'd also be worth the first, second and third picks. Buffalo, of course did the right thing in matching the offer.

Apparently Lowe is flush with cash this summer and instead of recognizing that there is nobody on the market worth the money (and therefore saving his resources for next year instead of way overspending), Lowe decided all this money was burning a hole in his pocket. So he decided to send out another offer sheet to a restricted free agent. But instead of getting one to Zach Parise in New Jersey, a very talented young pivot that can play at both ends of the ice and potted 30 goals last year, he decided to go after Dustin Penner. Now, I like Penner, but the guy has had one decent NHL season after going undrafted out of college and getting cut by the Winkler Flyers of all teams. Three times! There's no denying he has talent and some potential. But there is no way he is worth that money. Some people want to look at it as a future investment (overpay now so he'll be getting underpaid at the end of the deal) but what happens if Penner has a Lupulesque season in Edmonton next year? The same things being said about Penner this year were being said about Lupul last year. Would the Oilers sour on Penner right away, too?

Further compounding the Oilers problem is the fact they give up the first, second and third round picks in the draft. This is not something to sneeze at. Those picks are extremely valuable and one good draft can really set up an organization with top end talent and good depth for years to come. It's the principle that Billy Beane goes by. And there is NO way Penner is worth all those picks.

So what did Kevin Lowe do this offseason? He limited the financial flexibility of a small town team for the next five years. He mortgaged a lot of long term assets to take a flyer on a still very raw and developing player. He turned his team from a punchless offence with poor defence to a team that has a punchless offence with horrible defence. And he pissed off a bunch of GMs while also significantly driving up the price of young players (which, you know, is something a small market team should not be doing at all because, if you look at the Billy Beane model, cheap, decent young players are the players his franchise model revolves around).

If there is a lesson to be learned by NHL franchises (and all sports in general) is that the higher ups should never make a GM feel pressured into having a winning season during any given season (unless they are a huge market team with nearly endless resources like the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.). What happens is that GM starts making panic moves and mortgaging the future just to win a few more games next year. One step forward.....three steps back.