Thursday, September 27, 2007

Thoughts on Fantasy Hockey

Fantasy hockey (roto-style fantasy hockey, anyways....straight points leagues are for little ninnies who still get tucked in my their mothers) is the last fantasy sport that is relatively unbesmirched by the so-called "experts," which is why I love it so much.

Fantasy baseball and football are so well covered and with such depth by rather popular media sources that any Tom, Dick or Harry (because we all know that all Toms, Dicks and Harrys are dumbasses) can pick up a football pool guide, spend about 45 minutes reading a site like Rotoworld and have just as good a draft as the Brad that spent a couple of hours researching, ranking players, making up a fancy spreadsheet and devising a formula. A simple formula, but a formula nonetheless.

Hockey? Well, you get TSN running a 4 team mock draft with 7 player rosters, which is about as in depth as reviewing an album based on its front cover. No, fantasy hockey is the last sport where the dumbasses still congregate at the bottom of the standings each season and the cream always rises to the top. There is a reason I've finished top 2 the last three seasons!

There are no sleepers in football or baseball. The moment a player gets labeled a sleeper, I can guarantee you somebody is going to draft him way too early. Think Vincent Jackson from the Chargers going 4 rounds ahead of Deion Branch this year. But a hockey sleeper is still a sleeper. Now that I've finished my two most important drafts, I'm willing to divulge my hockey "sleepers" and "busts".

Sleepers

Petr Sykora - The guy SHOULDN'T be a sleeper but he still gets no respect in drafts. He's only playing on a line with Sidney Crosby this year. And it wasn't that long ago that Sykora was a 70-80 point player in Jersey.

Manny Legace - The Blues made significant improvements defensively when Andy Murray took over head coaching duties and look for that to continue into this season. Legace has always been a "good enough" goalie and he makes an excellent number three or even number two in deeper leagues. Much better than Manny Fernandez.

Shane O'Brien - Although he gets you some great PIM numbers, he's not your average one-dimensional goon. He is capable of putting up 30-35 points as well...not bad from a d-man. His value also got a boost with the recent injury to Dan Boyle....in that he's likely going to get some time on a powerplay with Lecavalier, St. Louis and Richards.

David Legwand - Look, this guy was having a pretty good season last year playing on Nashville's top line before they acquired Peter Forsberg. He was still able to produce in a reduced role. Legwand should be back up on the top line and will produce on a Nashville team that won't be near as bad as anybody is predicting.

Chris Mason - Speaking of Nashville, what about their goalie. Mason is getting drafted well after the second tier of goalies, even though he clearly belongs in that group. The back-up this year, Dan Ellis, is not much of a threat to steal starts so expect a ton of games from Mason, who was arguably better than Vokoun last year.

Mark Streit - Offensively minded d-man who has moved up to play forward frequently with Montreal. Streit's not going to help you in many other categories, but he's not being drafted in most leagues and is very capable of 40+ points.

Nik Antropov - The ultimate sleeper. Most people simply hate this guy for reasons that are completely unjustified. The only knock you can make on Antropov is that he is injury prone. There is absolutely no denying his talent and if he stays healthy, look for a big year from him on the Sundin/Blake line. This guy is either going to be undrafted in your league or available for next to nothing.....he's the Rex Grossman of fantasy hockey...only with talent.

Keep an eye on:

Jaroslav Hlinka - Czech league scoring leader last year is good friends with Milan Hejduk (which is why Colorado signed him). He's had a great camp playing on a line with Stastny and Hensick in camp and if he stays on this line when Hejduk returns he could have a very good season.

Nathan Paetsch - Hard-nosed d-man in Buffalo has the skill set required to QB the powerplay. It's still not determined who will get the gig, but if Paetsch does he should be a good all around d-man.

Ryan Callahan - This kid is likely stuck on the third line in New York but he is capable of significant production in every single category if the opportunity becomes available on one of the scoring lines.

Busts: These guys aren't so much "busts" as they are guys to avoid because you'll have to draft them far too early if you want them

Carey Price - First off, it is extremely unlikely that Price takes over the number one job in Montreal. Secondly, Montreal was a brutal defensive team last year that didn't bring in much personnel to change that. So even if Price steals the top job, he's going to have a below average GAA and save percentage. Do yourself a favor and wait a round or two later and take Legace.

Andy McDonald - Kunitz isn't nearly as good a player as the stat sheet said last year and losing Selanne as a linemate is really going to hurt. The way Bertuzzi/Getzlaf/Ryan played, it would not be surprising if they become the top line before too long. You can easily pass on McDonald and grab a David Legwand later on.

Andrei Markov - Funny thing that I own him in a league! He just slipped ridiculously far. The thing with Markov is that he no longer has Sheldon Souray's booming shot to set up for power play one timers, which is where he made his bread and butter. He's going to be a decent option, he's just slipped down a tier or two from last year.

Erik Cole - Very injury prone and even when he is healthy, he never produces as well as you think he does. Do yourself a favor and avoid the headache by passing on this guy in your draft.

Dominik Hasek - Why waste a decent pick on a guy likely to miss 30-40 games when you can pick up somebody like Chris Mason with a similar pick?

Manny Fernandez - Avoid like the plague. Fernandez looked done last year and he was playing in a very goalie friendly system. Boston is not...so...goalie friendly. I refused to draft him even though I needed a third goalie and he was the last sure starter left. I waited until the last round and took Marc Denis...that's how much I'd avoid this guy.

Rick Nash - Unless you're simply looking for goals, look elsewhere. Nash is a big name that really only produces in two categories: shots on goal and goals. His +/- will hurt you and he doesn't get too many assists, which brings down his powerplay points totals. I'd much rather have an Alexander Frolov or Paul Kariya to fill my left wing slot.

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