Baseball Draft Results

I just finished up a draft on ESPN employing a bit of a different strategy this time around. I focused heavily on hitting early on and then, in a twist, I picked some closers early. My strategy this draft was to focus on picking pitchers with high strike out rates and a great potential for low ERA and WHIP. Of course I should also be very good in saves. Of course, many of my pitchers are injury prone, so I may struggle in wins, but could be VERY good in 3 categories and very solid in K's.

Just so you know, I had the 8th pick in the draft.

1.) Chase Utley (2B) - I love Utley this year, simply because he is so much better than the rest of the position. The drop-off is so steep Utley not only has a tier to himself, there may also be an empty tier between him and Brian Roberts, who is usually the second 2B off the board.

2.) David Ortiz (DH) - Big Papi! Ryan Howard goes 10 picks ahead of him, yet Papi should have identical (or better) numbers.

3.) Jason Bay (OF) - Had lots more value when he was stealing, but happy to get 35 HRs and 10-20 SBs.

4.) Jimmy Rollins (SS) - Utley and Rollins give me two studs at very shallow positions. Rollins added power last year and is trying to add more SB this year. Love this guy.

5.) Vernon Wells (OF) - Similar player to Bay. Could see a dip in average, but I think last year was quite legit.

6.) B.J. Ryan (RP) - High K, reliable pitcher with great rate stats. Should get lots of K's pitching for a good Jays team.

7.) Billy Wagner (RP) - Another very high K reliever with solid rate stats. I really like the Mets team to win lots this year, which means plenty of saves.

8.) Daisuke Matsuzaka (SP) - I usually don't buy into the hype, but I'm starting to buy into the hype on this guy. Besides, I'm not even reaching for him in the 8th round.

9.) Felix Hernandez (SP) - I think last year was just a small step back. The kid has bigtime talent and should really put things together this year.

10.) Rich Harden (SP) - Appears to be healthy and dominating spring hitting. Could be one of only pitchers to push Santana for Cy Young this year.

11.) Mike Piazza (C) - Perhaps a reach, but I simply love this guy too much DHing for the Athletics.

12.) Chris Ray (RP) - Another great, young, underappreciated reliever with great rate stats. Should rack up more saves behind a better Baltimore team this year.

13.) Todd Helton (1B) - I don't expect the Helton of old, but would be happy with .300 and 25 HRs. Of course, he still has potential for a big year.

14.) J.D. Drew (OF) - Only reason this guy slips here is because of his injury pronedness. I think its a bit overexaggerated and I love his potential in that Red Sox line-up.

15.) Eric Gagne (RP) - A gamble. If it explodes...meh...I didn't pass on anyone intriguing on the board. If it works....fits my strategy well.

16.) Mike Mussina (SP) - Ridiculously consistent. Should get me some wins and strike out enough to be useful.

17.) Dave Roberts (OF) - Noticed I needed some more speed and JD Drew insurance, so I drafted a underrated speedster

18.) Hank Blalcok (3B) - Noticed I still needed a 3B. I expect this kid to bounce back nicely.

19.) Javier Vazquez (SP) - Looking for high K pitchers....should also see wins. Could have poor ERA, though.

20.) BJ Upton (3B) - Blalock insurance and more speed. The last roster spot should be for drafting risky high reward players since you'll likely use this spot to cycle in players during the season.

Undervalued or Bloated Corpse?

Undervalued: Rich Harden (SP) - Always a bit of an injury risk, Harden has been pitching lights out this spring and is probably the only pitcher in baseball that can keep pace with Johan Santana when healthy. This guy has been slipping to the mid-teen rounds in 10 team leagues and should provide an insane amount of value.

Bloated Corpse: Chien-Ming Wang (SP) - Wang simply does not strike out batters. Sure he gets you wins playing for the Yankees, but expect that ERA and WHIP to climb. Not worth the early round picks (or any pick in shallow leagues) that he has been selected at.

Undervalued: Dave Roberts (OF) - 40 steals, a .280 average, little power, going undrafted in virtually every 10 team draft I've been in. That's alot of steals for absolutely free.

Bloated Corpse: Juan Pierre (OF) - 40 steals, a .280 average, little power. Getting drafted between the 6th and 10th rounds. Pass on Pierre and his name value and go with the unappreciated Roberts.

Undervalued: Jimmy Rollins (SS) - I really shouldn't put him on this list, but the kid did sock 25 homers and steal 30+ bases. And he's been focusing on stealing more bases. Should be the second (maybe third) shortstop off the board.

Bloated Corpse: Michael Young (SS) - Young has a nice batting average, yes, but he doesn't have significant power or speed and is getting drafted ahead of speedsters like Jimmy Rollins or Hanley Ramirez.

Pick-Up or Avoid?

Each week (hopefully) during the baseball season, I'm going to look at three players to avoid in fantasy baseball and three players that are being undervalued.

Pick-up

C - Mike Piazza: Piazza is often getting drafted in the middle to late teen rounds, behind catchers like Kenji Johjima, Jorge Posada and Michael Barrett. This should NOT be the case. Piazza had a solid season in a terrible hitter's park with the wear and tear of an old guy playing catcher all season. This year he's moving to Oakland where he will be the designated hitter, which should significantly reduce the wear and tear on his body. A .290 average with 25-30 HR's should not be out of the question. In my opinion, he should be the fourth catcher off the board, behind Mauer, McCann and Victor Martinez.

Avoid

RP - Fransisco Rodriguez: If you read my draft strategy, you shouldn't even be worrying about drafting an elite closer early. But if you don't want my advice and insist on taking a closer, please pass on this guy. While he does have the potential to be the top closer at the end of the year, have you ever seen this guy throw a baseball? His mechanics are absolutely vicious and when watching him, it seems like something's about to pop after every pitch. It's only a matter of time before he's out for the season after throwing a heater.

Pick-Up

3B - Hank Blalock: This guy is going undrafted in numerous ten team leagues. That's just wrong. Sure he had a rough season last year, but there is simply too much talent here for the struggles to continue. Blalock is capable of batting .290 with 30 HRs, especially playing in the home run haven ballpark in Arlington. Hold off on drafting a 3B and scoop this guy up.

Avoid

1B - Ryan Howard: Sure, he is likely to blast 40-50 HRs next season, but expect that average to come down significantly. He's also likely to get walked alot more this year, ala Barry Bonds a few years ago. Don't get me wrong...the guy will have plenty of value....but he won't be worth the top 5 pick its going to take to get him.

Pick-up

RP - Todd Jones: This guy is a closer for one of the best (and fairly young) teams in baseball. The Tigers should continue to win many a game this year and Jones will be there to pick up plenty of garbage saves. Jones is slipping because people fear Joel Zumaya will take over the closer's role, but don't forget that Jones pitched horribly last season and held onto the job. Besides, the Tigers seem to realize that using their best pitcher in high leverage situations is more important than padding their saves stats, so expect Jones to continue racking up saves.

Avoid

C - Ivan Rodriguez: This guy has been getting by on reputation for several seasons now. He's still going to get you 15 HRs with a .280 average and a handful of steals, but he's still going way too early in drafts...ahead of Piazza or Ramon Hernandez, which are far more likely to maintain their production ahead of Rodriguez.

2007 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Part 4

Relief Pitchers

Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera
Fransisco Rodriguez
Billy Wagner
B.J. Ryan
Huston Street
Brad Lidge
Trevor Hoffman

Bobby Jenks
J.J. Putz
Chris Ray
Tom Gordon
Brian Fuentes
Takashi Saito
Fransisco Cordero
Chad Cordero

Eric Gagne
Todd Jones
Joe Borowski
Jason Isringhausen
Bob Wickman
Armando Benitez
Jose Valverde
Octavio Dotel
Salomon Torres

Ryan Dempster
Jonathan Paplebon
Mike Timlin
Taylor Tankersley
Joel Pineiro
Joel Zumaya
Kerry Wood
Rafael Soriano
Mike Gonzalez
Seth McClung
Akinori Otsuka
Scot Shields
Jonathan Broxton
Matt Capps
Jorge Julio

David Weathers
Dan Wheeler
Fernando Rodney
Mike MacDougal
Adam Wainwright
Braden Looper
Bob Howry
Derrick Turnbow
Todd Coffey
LaTroy Hawkins
Scott Linebrink

These rankings are based mainly on saves. A player like Paplebon is clearly more valuable than most players on this list since he’ll likely be starting instead of closing, which reduces his save potential.

The first tier is composed of the elite closers. The guys that shouldn’t lose their jobs unless they get injured. These guys help keep the ERA and WHIP down and for the most part, they contribute enough in strike outs.

The second tier is composed of the remaining “solid” closers. Guys that should be their team’s clear-cut closer. These guys tend to have some issues…ERA, WHIP, strike outs or simply not having enough experience as a “proven closer” that they might be on a shorter leash.

The third tier is composed of guys that should come out of spring as the closer, but could also lose their job if they struggle early. It also has some guys that should be the clear closer, but their team might not win enough games to pad their stat totals.

The fourth tier is all about pitchers that are in very cloudy closer situations and still have a chance to break camp as the closer. I’ve also got players (like Otsuka) that are next in line for saves behind some rather fragile players.

The fifth tier is mainly a list of players to keep an eye on. These guys could all be closing somewhere by the end of the year.

So where, exactly, do you draft your closer? Most of the time, drafts have closer runs in which the elite closers will tend to go in a two or three round gap, followed by another run of the mid tier closers a few rounds later. However, closer is the most volatile position from year to year so my theory is to NEVER draft closers early. Don’t get too caught up in drafting during a closer run…look for other value that is getting overlooked at this point!!

Usually you can pick up some decent closers really late in the draft. Guys like Brian Fuentes, Todd Jones, Jose Valverde, Joe Borowski, and Bob Wickman are all VERY unsexy picks, but they should all rack up decent save totals and are lasting far too late in drafts. I’m talking 17th round in 10 team leagues late.

Not to mention other closers like Dotel and Torres are actually going undrafted in many drafts. Since these guys will still get you saves, and that’s really the only reason to draft a closer, you simply don’t need to draft closers early.

The other thing about closers is that usually 3 or 4 guys come out of “nowhere” to pick up a bunch of saves. That’s why I have the last two tiers here. Keep an eye on these guys and the guys closing ahead of them. Some of these guys will pick up 20-30 saves by the end of the year.

2007 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Part 3

Starting Pitchers

Johan Santana

Chris Carpenter
Jake Peavy
Carlos Zambrano
Roy Oswalt
Roy Halladay
John Smoltz
Brandon Webb

Rich Harden
Ben Sheets
Jeremy Bonderman
John Smoltz
Aaron Harang
John Lackey
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jason Schmidt

Felix Hernandez
Brett Myers
Dan Haren
Erik Bedard
Scott Kazmir
C.C. Sabathia
Chris Young
Jered Weaver
Cole Hamels
Jonathan Paplebon
Josh Beckett
Randy Johnson
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Justin Verlander
Mike Mussina

Dontrelle Willis
Bronson Arroyo
Ervin Santana
John Patterson
AJ Burnett
Andy Pettitte
Javier Vazquez
Kevin Millwood
Brad Penny
Chris Capuano
Curt Schilling

Greg Maddux
Jon Garland
Kelvim Escobar
Jose Contreras
Dave Bush
Doug Davis
Bartolo Colon
Freddy Garcia
Tim Hudson
Matt Garza
Tom Gorzelanny
Anthony Reyes
Ian Snell
Scott Olsen
Jeff Francis

Chien-Ming Wang
Tom Glavine
Zach Duke
Joe Blanton
Ted Lilly
Vicente Padilla
Matt Morris
Josh Johnson
Derek Lowe
Mark Buehrle
Carl Pavano
Daniel Cabrera
Oliver Perez

Randy Wolf
Matt Clement
Rich Hill
Cliff Lee
Noah Lowry
Livan Hernandez
Jeff Weaver
Kenny Rogers
Philip Hughes

From what I’ve seen, starting pitching has been going later in the draft than it should be. Johan Santana makes a pretty solid case for being the number one overall pick ahead of Pujols. Don’t hesitate him to pick him at two. If he slips at all to you in the first round (especially the middle) feel blessed that you picked up the best pitcher in baseball without requiring an early pick.

After that, players like Carpenter, Peavy and Zambrano usually get scooped up in the third round. If you miss on Santana, do not hesitate to grab a second tier pitcher in the third or early fourth round. The second tier is filled with good, solid pitchers that aren’t too big of an injury risk (except Zambrano).

The third tier is loaded with question marks. Harden, Sheets and Schmidt would easily be in the second tier (Harden potentially in the top tier with Santana) if it weren’t for injury concerns. Harden has been slipping into the double digit rounds….if Harden is on the board in 10, pick him up. It’s well worth the risk. Matsuzaka is another question mark…he could have second tier talent, but is it worth the risk. He’s been going in round 5 territory, so it’s really up to you. I recently drafted him in the 9th round.

The third tier contains age concerns: either too young and I’m concerned that last year was a bit above their heads, or else too old and a decline should be expected. Still, Chris Young, Josh Beckett and Mike Mussina have been going far too late in drafts, so snagging one of these three late is never a bad idea. The rest seem to be going in about the right spots. Also, Randy Johnson has been going late….if you’ve totally neglected pitching into the ‘teen rounds, there are worse ideas than taking Johnson and hoping he regains his stride.

Tier four contains a lot of pitchers that could either put together a solid, all-star caliber season, or else see their ERA balloon into the mid 5.00s. John Patterson could be a stud if he at all stays healthy, but don’t count on it. After that, it’s kind of a crapshoot. Either unproven young pitchers (Garza, Gorzelanny, Snell, Hughes), pitchers that don’t strike out enough hitters (Wang, Maddux, Glavine), or else pitchers that are simply overrated (Lilly, Garland, Rogers).

Some of the better sleepers I like are Peavy, Harden, Schmidt, Bedard, Beckett, Mussina, Patterson, Garza and Gorzelanny. All have the ability to have quality to excellent seasons and all are seemingly undervalued in most drafts.

There are also some pitchers I’d avoid: Zambrano, Sabathia, Kazmir, Zito, Willis, Colon and Wang. I think there is either too much injury risk for the cost, I expect a big drop-off, or else the talent simply isn’t there.

Drafting pitching basically comes down to luck of the draw, as its often predictable. I usually try and grab at least one pitcher from the top couple of tiers in the first 4-5 rounds. I then usually take a couple mid-level pitchers in the middle rounds and then fill out my rotation/bench nearer the end of the draft. This can change, though, depending on how much value everyone else places on pitching. I had one draft where I nabbed Santana in the first round and then Carpenter was available at the end of round 3, so I picked him. Peavy fell to the end of round 5 and, although I had lots of pitching already, I really couldn’t pass on having the top three pitchers on my list. I then added Harden in round 15! That’s some great pitching!

Conversely, the draft I did today saw pitching flying off the board, so I actually waited and filled my rotation with some Ben Sheets and Jason Schmidt types in the middle rounds, all while stacking my line-up.

2007 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Part 2

Outfield

Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Beltran
Carl Crawford
Vladimir Guerrero
Lance Berkman
Manny Ramirez

Grady Sizemore
Jason Bay
Matt Holliday
Bobby Abreu
Carlos Lee
Vernon Wells
Ichiro Suzuki

Andruw Jones
Jermaine Dye
Gary Sheffield
Hideki Matsui
Johnny Damon
Corey Patterson
Adam Dunn
Nick Swisher

JD Drew
Chone Figgins
Rocco Baldelli
Alex Rios
Magglio Ordonez
Torii Hunter
Delmon Young
Nick Markakis
Pat Burrell
Michael Cuddyer
Aubrey Huff

Juan Pierre
Jeff Francouer
Willy Tavares
Barry Bonds
Raul Ibanez
Mike Cameron
Eric Byrnes
Brad Hawpe
Ryan Freel
Moises Alou
Dave Roberts

Coco Crisp
Chris Duffy
Austin Kearns
Josh Willingham
Jim Edmonds
Juan Rivera
Carlos Quentin
Craig Monroe
Brian Giles
Jeremy Hermida
Aaron Rowand
Chris Young
Scott Podsednik

Curtis Granderson
Brad Wilkerson
Jacque Jones
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Jay Gibbons
Shane Victorino

Your draft strategy for your outfielders should depend largely on what you plan on doing with your middle infielders. If you decide to load up on some power with guys like Glaus (if SS eligible), Utley, Tejada, etc., you may want to look to add some speed. If you grab a few speedsters at 2B and SS (which is what I recommend), then load up on power in the outfield spots, as there is plenty of it.

Soriano is the clear cut top outfielder due to his speed and power combo. Other similar players that will be Carl Crawford (more speed, less power), Grady Sizemore (Soriano-lite but with more runs and a better batting average), Bobby Abreu (who I think has a great season), and Jason Bay (though he’s not running as much.)

I’d highly recommend waiting a couple rounds before addressing the outfield (unless someone falls much further than you believe they should). Manny Ramirez has been falling as far as the end of the third round in some drafts and that should not be. When was the last time he didn’t hit .300/35HR/100 RBI? Also, watch for Abreu, who has been falling pretty far done the draft despite the fact he’ll probably be hitting third for the Yankees. Big season in store for him.

If you’re looking for some speedsters, look at Ichiro (likely overvalued), Juan Pierre (definitely overvalued), Corey Patterson (with some power), Chone Figgins, Willy Tavares, Ryan Freel, Chris Duffy, Brian Roberts, or Scott Podsednik. With the exception of Ichiro and Patterson, these guys should give you lots of speed, but little else.

If you’re after power, take a look at Adam Dunn, Nick Swisher, Jeff Francouer or Pat Burrell. Just don’t expect much batting average.

If you’re looking for some bargains, consider Aubrey Huff, JD Drew, Nick Markakis, Moises Alou and rookie Chris Young. All these guys have some question marks, but they all have the ability to have very good years and are going very late in drafts. Drew, in particular, is intriguing, considering the ballpark and line-up he will be in.

Don’t overpay for Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Carlos Lee, Barry Bonds, Jermaine Dye, Rocco Baldelli, Raul Ibanez, Brian Giles, Ken Griffey, Jr., or Scott Podsednik. These players are all going to early in many drafts considering the majore question marks or general lack of production. Watch Bonds, though, as he has slipped very late in several drafts and he makes a great pick as a later round 4th outfielder/utility.


DH

Travis Hafner
Jim Thome
Frank Thomas

Mike Sweeney

If your league doesn’t have a DH or Utility spot, the only player worth drafting on this list is Hafner, who might become 1B eligible as the season wears on.

If it does have a Utility spot, tremendous value can be had with the first three players on this list. Hafner could arguably go in the first round, but is likely going to last until the mid to end of round 2, which is too far for this stud. Sure he only plays the one roster spot, but there are about 2 or 3 players you might play over him there, and they probably aren’t on your team. Pick him up if he’s in Round 2!

Jim Thome is also slipping way too far, usually the 7th or 8th round. Pick up your .280 average and 40 HRs in the 7th and be very pleased.

Frank Thomas is slipping really late in drafts, which is understandable considering the health risk. However, if you get him late enough, the reward far outweighs the risk. He went in the last round of a recent draft and there is no way you’re going to find a 40 HR hitter after round 15, so consider picking him up.

Don’t bother with Mike Sweeney. Even if he’s healthy, which is a big if, he’s but a shadow of his former useful self.

2007 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy

With fantasy baseball starting up, I've decided to write my first strategy guide. I've taken part in about 5 live drafts now and have picked up on some trends as to where players are going, which positions are deep and shallow, and who, in my opinion, is being underratted or overvalued.

I will be looking at each position individually and ranking the players as to how I'd value them in a regular mixed 5X5 roto league. To further help you out, I've placed the players into different tiers....players in the same tier should be relatively similar in value while the tier below will see a fairly decent drop in value. After my rankings, I'll then discuss some of the draft strategies you may want to implement for each position. We'll start with the infield: catchers, first base, second base, third base and shortstop.

Catchers

Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Victor Martinez
Mike Piazza

Kenji Johjima
Ramon Hernandez
Jorge Posada
Ivan Rodriguez
Russell Martin
Jason Varitek

Michael Barrett
AJ Pierzynski
Johnny Estrada

David Ross
Ronny Paulino
Bengie Molina
Rod Barajas
Javy Lopez

Miguel Olivo
Gregg Zaun
Josh Bard
Gerald Laird
Jason Kendall

There’s a pretty big gap between the top tier of catchers and the rest, so if you want a good catcher, you’ll want one of those. Mauer seems to be coming off the board in the 3rd or 4th round, with V-Mart and McCann in the 5th to 8th rounds. My suggestion is that if you want an elite catcher, pick one of those guys up in that area. If you miss out on them, your next best bet is probably Piazza (who is DHing in Oakland), who seems to be going much later in drafts and has been a pretty good value. If you miss Piazza, your best bet is simply holding off on a catcher, as the rest of the bunch is pretty replaceable. Depending on your league size, the Rod Barajases of the world will likely go undrafted and he’s likely to have similar production to Ivan Rodriguez, who is getting drafted way too early based on his name.

My own personal strategy has been to try and land one of the big three because, aside from Piazza, they are the only ones likely to produce significantly better than the rest of the pack. Mauer and Martinez have been going far too early for my tastes but McCann in the 7th round seems like good value and I’ve picked him every draft so far simply because it was too good of value not to pick him. I think the ideal situation, though, is wait for Piazza around Round 13. If you miss him, forget about catcher until the end of the draft.

First Basemen

Albert Pujols
David Ortiz
Ryan Howard
Lance Berkman

Mark Teixeira
Justin Morneau
Paul Konerko
Carlos Delgado
Derek Lee

Prince Fielder
Jason Giambi
Gary Sheffield
Nick Swisher
Todd Helton
Richie Sexson

Adam LaRoche
Michael Cuddyer
Nomar Garciaparra
Lyle Overbay
Jeff Kent

Adrian Gonzalez
Conor Jackson
Ryan Shealy

Since first basemen produce the gaudiest numbers, they usually fly off the board early. Don’t reach for a first baseman. The position is so deep that players like LaRoche are in the 4th tier despite hitting 32 HR last year. My strategy has been that unless someone has dropped a lot further than they should, to hold off on a first baseman. Needless to say, I’ve drafted a lot of Jason Giambi/Adam LaRoche/Todd Helton types. Obviously not the sexiest of picks, but there isn’t a huge gap in talent.

Pujols has been the consensus first overall pick but I don’t think it’s that clear cut between him and Johan Santana. I think Howard has been going too early….I think he comes back down to earth next season and Big Papi isn’t as far behind as you’d think. Berkman is clearly underrated, slipping to the end of the 2nd round at times. Keep an eye on Prince Fielder…he’s been slipping very late into some drafts and should have a fine season.

Second Basemen

Chase Utley

Brian Roberts
Chone Figgins
Rickie Weeks
Howie Kendrick
Jeff Kent
Robinson Cano

Josh Barfield
Brandon Phillips
Dan Uggla
Ian Kinsler
Julio Lugo
Tadahito Iguchi
Marcus Giles
Ryan Freel

Rich Aurilia
Jorge Cantu
Wilson Betemit
Orlando Hudson
Freddy Sanchez
Ray Durham
Luis Castillo
Placido Polanco

Chase Utley is easily the class of this year’s second basemen. He’s so far ahead of the rest of the field that if he is still available in the second round, you HAVE to take him. After that, this position is filled with health risks, unproven youth and mediocrity. It’s easily the scarcest position, which is why Utley has incredible value if he falls to round 2. Landing a Chone Figgins or Ryan Freel isn’t a bad idea, as they’re speedsters and there aren’t many players on this list with their speed potential. Not too many have a tremendous amount of power, either. My plan has been to take Utley at the end of round 1 or if he falls to the 2nd and if I miss him, wait and try to grab a Howie Kendrik, Rickie Weeks or Josh Barfield type later in the draft.

I think Cano, Sanchez and Uggla will struggle to match their numbers from last year and Sanchez and Cano’s value is mostly tied to batting average. I’ve found that if you miss on Utley, don’t panic to fill the position, as usually a decent option slips pretty late.

3B

Alex Rodriguez
David Wright
Miguel Cabrera
Aramis Ramirez
Garrett Atkins

Ryan Zimmerman
Chipper Jones
Troy Glaus
Scott Rolen
Hank Blalock
Bill Hall
Eric Chavez

Joe Crede
Morgan Ensberg
Adrian Beltre
Mark Teahan
Chad Tracy

Alex Gordon
Edwin Encarnacion
Melvin Mora
Aubrey Huff
Shea Hillenbrand
Ryan Braun

Brandon Inge
Mike Lowell
Wilson Betemit
Pedro Feliz

Third base is ridiculously deep this year and it’s pretty hard to justify spending an early pick on a third baseman. Considering that players like Chavez and Blalock have been going as the 10th to 12th third basemen, there is no need to reach for any third baseman early. My strategy after doing a few drafts is to wait until the very end to grab a third baseman, usually Chavez or Blalock, who should both bounce back and have the ability for top 5 type production.

Despite what anyone says, Alex Rodriguez is still the best third baseman available, with his combination of power, speed and batting average. Miguel Cabrera will tend to be overrated in most drafts, as he simply does not have the elite power of Rodriguez or Aramis Ramirez, and he does not have the speed of David Wright. But once again, unless there is a third baseman you really want, or one of the top tier guys slips too far, you can usually wait until later in the draft to address this need.

Keep an eye on Alex Gordon. He's a very good and polished young hitter and if he sticks in the majors and succeeds, 20-25 HRs and 15-20 SB aren't out of the question.

SS

Jose Reyes
Derek Jeter
Jimmy Rollins

Miguel Tejada
Hanley Ramirez
Rafael Furcal
Troy Glaus
Bill Hall
Michael Young
Carlos Guillen
Julio Lugo

Felipe Lopez
Edgar Renteria
Jhonny Peralta
Bobby Crosby
Orlando Cabrera
Omar Vizquel

Stephen Drew
Troy Tulowitzki
Rich Aurillia
Wilson Betemit

Shortstop is surprisingly deep. Check to see if Troy Glaus is shortstop eligible in your league….that’s a lot of HR from this position. My personal preference is to use this position for steals, as there are several great candidates to choose from. Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez and Rafael Furcal all top my most wanted list, in that order. Each player has some pop, excellent speed and shouldn’t kill you in batting average. I tend to avoid Jeter because I think his steals will drop, he doesn’t have tremendous pop, and his batting average should come down quite a bit this year.

Don’t underestimate Julio Lugo. He has decent speed and pop and should do well in the Red Sox line-up. He has been slipping a little too late in most drafts. Also, watch for both Bobby Crosby and Jhonny Peralta to bounce back this year. Both players have usually been going undrafted, but each has the ability to hit for a good average and hit 20-25 home runs. They lack speed, though. I also think Michael Young and Carlos Guillen are overrated in fantasy. Guillen, mostly because he’s a health risk and Young because he has no speed and doesn’t have overwhelming power. He has been going far too early in most drafts.

NewsFlash: Big Trade Deadline Deal!

With the trade deadline approaching on Thursday, I managed to pull off a deal for a much needed goaltender. Due to recent injury troubles to Dominik Hasek, I was feeling rather desperate to acquire a goalie and there was only one team that had a goalie to trade (besides my rival). I have no doubt I overpayed in this trade, but it all comes down to supply and demand.

In the trade I sent Alexander Frolov, Shea Weber and David Aebischer to Nasherov in exchange for Evgeni Nabokov, Mattias Ohlund and Anson Carter. It hurts giving up Frolov, as he has done very well for me, and I'm as big a Weber fan as there is, but I simply had to acquire a goalie or else be faced with the possibility of playing Aebischer or Sean Burke. Ohlund and Carter are merely insurance policies and will not likely see any time in my line-up.

What it amounts to is my hoping that Ladislav Nagy or Vaclav Prospal can replace the production of Alex Frolov in order to give me peace of mind at the goaltending position. Weber hurts, but not much, as he was part of a 3 man rotation that now becomes a 2 man rotation. But losing Frolov's goal scoring prowess definitely hurts.

One More Baseball Draft

A quick explanation for all the baseball drafts:

None of my friends play fantasy baseball. I love baseball. This forces me to join public leagues. Usually, most people stop caring a month into the season, so its super hard to find a fun league. My plan, each year, is to enlist in a bunch and hope that I get lucky enough to find a good one.

This was a bit different than my first two. Those were 12 team leagues on Yahoo and this is a 10 team league on ESPN. And a loss of my internet connection in the middle rounds totally screwed up my draft strategy.

Anyways, the round by round results (I had 3rd pick):

1.) SP - Johan Santana - The best starting pitcher in the majors. Hands down. It's equivalent to taking Martin Brodeur.
2.) OF - Jason Bay - Just missed out on Manny Ramirez, so I decided to go with a power/speed combo the rest of the draft. (Until I lost my internet connection.)
3.) SP - Chris Carpenter - The best starting pitcher in the National League the last two years. Gives me a POTENT 1-2 punch on the mound.
4.) OF - Bobby Abreu - Normally I like loading up on stud infielders before outfielders, but Abreu could hit 30 homers and steal 20 bases this year.
5.) SS - Rafael Furcal - The theme of this draft was JUST missing the players I coveted each round. Rollins and Hanley Ramirez went the two picks before I picked Abreu, and I really wanted one of those two. Furcal is an okay fallback option with good speed and okay power.
6.) C - Brian McCann - I now have McCann on all three of my teams. Liked this pick initially, but regretted it when nobody drafted a catcher after Victor Martinez until round 16.
7.) SP - John Smoltz - I've never drafted this pitcher heavy before, but can you really leave Smoltz on the board in this spot?
8.) 1B - Richie Sexson - This is where my internet connection crapped out and the autodraft took over for a few rounds. Had my eye on either JJ Putz at closer, Rickie Weeks at 2B (power/speed guy) or Corey Patterson (power/speed).
9.) 1B - Jason Giambi - Another autpick selection that didn't fit my philosophy. Would've loved to have gone with Putz and Weeks at these two spots.
10.) OF - Delmon Young - My internet kicked back in and Corey Patterson was drafted one pick before this. Grr. Settled for Young, who could easily knock out 30 homers and steal 20-25 bases. (Continuing the power/speed combo theme).
11.) RP - Bobby Jenks - I gambled with Young, hoping Brad Lidge would fall to this pick. Lidge went two picks before it got to me. Still, Jenks should get alot of saves on a good White Sox team.
12.) SP - Randy Johnson - A gamble, but one I could afford with my other three starters. There was nobody else on the board that inspired me that wouldn't fall until later.
13.) RP - Brian Fuentes - Good saves option this late in the draft. Never overpay for saves.
14.) 2B - Josh Barfield - Still needed a second baseman and Barfield has pop and some decent speed. Should benefit from leaving Petco Park, too.
15.) 3B - Alex Gordon - Maybe a reach, but this kid seems as surefire a prospect as ever. Nice power, nice speed, nice average. Only problem I foresee is less RBI and runs playing in the Royals line-up.
16.) OF/IF - Ryan Freel - A speedster who is great for the bench because of his ability to play in almost every position.
17.) RP - Todd Jones - He'd have to pitch REALLY bad to lose the closer's spot and Detroit should rack up lots of wins. Any damage he might do to WHIP and ERA should easily be offset by my starting pitching.
18.) SP - Rich Harden - Best. Pick. Ever. I couldn't believe my eyes that this guy was still there. Mark Prior went ahead of him, and he's MUCH more injury prone than Harden. Harden is the one pitcher that, if healthy, could keep pace with Johan Santana. Easily worth an 18th round flier. Seriously...I cannot believe I got this guy with this pick.
19.) 3B - Hank Blalock - Blalock seems hard to gauge this year. Some drafts he goes in the first 10-12 rounds, others he goes almost undrafted. Nice insurance in case Alex Gordon flames out in his rookie season.
20.) OF - Moises Alou - Should benefit from playing in a loaded Mets line-up. Some insurance in case Delmon Young struggles.

Had I picked up Weeks and Patterson or Putz in rounds 8 and 9, I would've LOVED this draft. I could've picked up Adam LaRoche in place of Barfield and been just as good at 1B and much improved at 2B. Oh well, it was all redeemed with Harden in the 18th. Harden's a better pitcher than Prior and a significantly lower injury risk.

Gearing Up For The Playoffs

One week left in the regular season of our hockey pool and I'm firmly entrenched in 2nd place heading towards the playoffs. I figure its time to look back at what my team accomplished during the season, as well as look forward to what my team needs to do to win a championship. We'll go position by position.

Centres - (Thornton, Lecavalier, Horcoff, Prospal) - Considering I spent the entire season with Joe Thornton and Vincent Lecavalier as my two centres, this has easily been my most productive and most consistent position by far. Both players are top 5 centres, with Lecavalier probably the best one not named Sidney Crosby. These two guys are going to have to continue carrying the load in the playoffs. I'm not worried about this position at all, as both players are superstars that have stayed healthy throughout their careers. If something were to happen, Sean Horcoff has begun playing well of late and Vaclav Prospal has starting playing on a line with Lecavalier and St. Louis, which should see a nice increase in production.

Wings - (Kovalchuk, Alfredsson, Frolov, Hejduk, Nagy, Prospal, Radulov, Perry) - We start four wingers each week, one LW, one RW and two other wingers. Alfredsson and Kovalchuk are firmly locked into RW and LW, though Kovalchuk has been playing rather poorly lately. It would be nice to see him get some chemistry with Tkachuk and pick it up for the playoff run. Fortunately, Kovalchuk's disappointing season is somewhat offset by Frolov's breakout year. I picked him up as a throw-in in a trade earlier this year and it paid off nicely. I'm also quite pleased with Milan Hejduk, who has really picked up his game recently. If Kovalchuk turns it around quickly, this should also be a very strong part of my line-up. My depth here is also decent, with Nagy and Prospal being decent options. Perry has become a non-issue (though I did get some great production out of him earlier in the year when I needed it) and Radulov just isn't getting enough ice time in Nashville.

Defence - (Pronger, Phaneuf, Liles, Weber, Bieksa) - Another strength to my team is on defence. Pronger and Phaneuf are stud defenseman, putting up points, +/- and penalty minutes in bunches. Since we play 3 d-men per week, I've been cycling Liles, Weber and Bieksa based on match-ups. Liles plays when I'm looking for more points, Weber when I want some +/-, and Bieksa when some more penalty minutes are required. A VERY solid group here and very deep which is perfect for the playoff run.

Goaltending - (Hasek, Lehtonen, Aebischer, Nittyymaki, Auld (IR), Burke) - At various times my goaltending has been a huge strength and a terrible weakness. Right now, it's a terrible weakness. Lehtonen has started to tire down the stretch, and Hasek has been sitting alot more to rest for the playoffs. Aebischer has been losing playing time to Halak and Montreal, and playing like crap when he has gotten chances. Nittyymaki lost any value he may have had when the Flyers traded for Martin Biron and Alex Auld just plain sucks. Luckily, Auld is injured right now, which allowed me to put him on IR and pick up Sean Burke, who has at least been getting playing time in Los Angeles. Right now my hope is for Hasek to regain his health (I have a first round bye, so I basically have two weeks before I need him) and Lehtonen to get back on track. At the start of the season, these were the two hottest goalies in the league, so hopefully they can end the season that way. If not, I might be sunk.

It's going to be a tough playoffs this year. Hog Wild is in first and his team is incredibly talented, very deep and has solid goaltending. He's clearly the team to beat. Another team I've become quite concerned about is Oakville Squires. They recently picked up Alex Ovechkin to pair with Teemu Selanne on the wing, and he also had Bill Guerin and Keith Tkachuk riding his bench all year. Both players were traded away to rather good situations and should see a huge spike in production. Keith Tron's Revenge has another very deep team, those his goaltending could be an issue and he's currently battling some injuries.

The other two teams that will likely make the playoffs are less talented, but each have a pair of players that have consistently put up huge weeks down the stretch that have single handedly won them big weeks. Derka Derka has Crosby/Recchi, though his goaltending is quite weak. Nasherov has the Zetterberg/Datsyuk combo with Brodeur in net, but he simply does not have enough depth in his line-up to make a long playoff run.

We'll have to see how it goes. I made the finals last year, losing to Hog Wild, while I won the season before that, defeating Keith Tron's Revenge in the finals. I really like my forwards and defence, I'm just crossing my fingers that my goalie situation somehow resolves itself in the next two weeks.

Another Baseball Draft

I did another baseball draft tonight and got the unfortunate luck of getting the last pick overall. It's the worst pick possible, since you miss out on the surefire studs, and then you have to wait 22 picks in between your two picks, which means you have to choose carefully because alot of players you'd like to draft can get picked in those 22 picks.

Here's how I fared round-by-round (which I think wasn't too bad):

1.) 2B - Chase Utley - Utley has power, average and some speed and plays one of the scarcest positions. Surprised he fell this far, actually.
2.) OF - Carlos Beltran - Lots of power and hopefully lots of speed. Had this guy in my top 6 and was very happy to select him.
3.) SP - Jake Peavy - Still put up excellent numbers last year for having a disappointing season. A true number one.
4.) SP - Roy Halladay - Wasn't going to load up at SP, but Halladay in the fourth was too good to pass on.
5.) C - Brian McCann - Another player at a scarce position that should provide excellent power and average.
6.) SS - Troy Glaus - When I found out Glaus was eligible at SS, I scooped him up. A lot of power for a middle infielder and all the speedy SS were off the board (thanks to my Halladay pick in the 4th).
7.) OF - Corey Patterson - With power at SS, I added the speedy Corey Patterson in 7. Probably should've been drafted higher than this.
8.) DH/UTIL - Jim Thome - Hopefully he becomes 1B eligible, which would make this pick incredibly awesome. 40 homers in the 8th round? Very nice.
9.) RP - Brad Lidge - All the premiere closers were gone, so I picked up Lidge, who used to be too good not to bounce back.
10.) SP - Jason Schmidt - An injury risk, but if he stays healthy he'll be a top 10 pitcher in Dodger Stadium. Big if.
11.) RP - Brian Fuentes - Was shocked to see him available. Couldn't pass on that many saves.
12.) 3B - Hank Blalock - A perfectly good reason not to draft a 3B early: Hank Blalock in the 12th, with Chavez, Beltre and Encarnacion still available. (Alex Gordon wasn't even drafted!)
13.) 1B - Adam LaRoche - Nothing wrong with adding 30-35 homers in the 13th round, eh?
14.) OF - JD Drew - Yes, he'll likely get injured at some point. But Drew hitting in Fenway? Could have a MONSTER season.
15.) SP - John Patterson - An injury risk, but when healthy he's shown flashes of brilliance. Needed pitching depth and all other options were very uninspiring.
16.) RP - Octavio Dotel - Saves, hopefully. May be few and far between in KC.
17.) OF - Willy Tavares - Some speed to put into the line-up when Drew is injured.
18.) INF - Nick Punto - Mulitple position eligibility with good speed makes for a nice bench player. (Freel went 5 picks before this, which would've been huge.)
19.) SP - Greg Maddux - You never know....San Diego is a big pitcher's park, so he could have a season like he had in Los Angeles at the end of the year.
20.) SP - Zach Duke - A trendy pick last year that struggled. Should improve with more experience and be solid, not spectactular, option.
21.) SP - Matt Garza - A very high upside prospect worth taking a flyer on with the last pick of the draft.

Overall, a pretty solid draft. I took a few more risks on a few picks, which is what I had to do with such a late pick. My pitching could be dominant if it stays healthy, solid relief pitching, and a very balanced offence. Lots of power from Beltran, Utley, LaRoche, Thome, Glaus, Drew and McCann, while still having enough speed with Utley, Beltran, Patterson, and even Tavares and Punto in spot duty.

Assplosion Adds TE

In a move that was completed several weeks ago, Assplosion was able to add another piece to their starting line-up with the acquisition of TE Heath Miller from Reds. The trade, which saw Assplosion send the 73rd overall pick in the expansion draft, fills another empty spot in the starting line-up.

"We think Miller is a solid enough TE and we're pretty sure that there wouldn't be any better options available in the draft, so we pulled the trigger on this deal. We payed a little more than we initially wanted to, but there was a good chance the few decent remaining TE's wouldn't have fallen to us any later than this pick."

Miller, a first round pick in 2005, had 34 receptions for 393 yards and 5 TD in a somewhat disappointing season last year. Coming out of college, Miller was believed to be an explosive receiving threat, but he has yet to bust out in Pittsburgh's conservative, run first offense.

"He started off all right last year when Charlie Batch was filling in at QB, but then the Steelers decided to downgrade to Roethlisberger and Miller's value dropped. Hopefully their QB can play a bit better this year and look to Miller for more passes."

With the acquisiton, Assplosion only has two spots left in their starting line-up at the kicker and defense positions. Assplosion GM Brad Hunt has gone on record saying that he will not trade any more picks to fill these needs and will look to address them in the draft.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Review

I just completed my fantasy baseball draft for this year. It was a live draft done over Yahoo and I'm pretty happy with my results:

Round-by-round analysis

1.) 3B - Alex Rodriguez - Still one of the most talented players in the game. Plucking him with the 6th overall pick was a no-brainer.
2.) SP - Chris Carpenter - The best pitcher in the NL the last two years. Solid in all categories.
3.) SS - Hanley Ramirez - A bit of a reach, but he'll get me steals and a nice average.
4.) SP - Jake Peavy - Perhaps the most talented pitcher in the NL if he stays healthy.
5.) C - Brian McCann - Another small stretch. Catcher is the scarcest position to get highly valuable guys and McCann fits the bill perfectly.
6.) SP - John Lackey - Underrated, high strike-out pitcher on a good team. Love this pick.
7.) RP - Huston Street - Probably should've picked Putz here, but still a decent closer at the end of a closer run.
8.) OF - Delmon Young - Hoped to get him later, but noticed a hardcore Devil Rays fan drafting T-Bay players like the plague, so I picked him up a couple rounds earlier.
9.) 1B - Jason Giambi - Simply couldn't pass on this much power at this point in the draft.
10.) SP - Justin Verlander - I don't like this pick, in retrospect. Should've gone with Harden or Bedard here. (I thought Harden was already taken.)
11.) OF - Nick Swisher - How does this much power last this late in the draft. A no-brainer.
12.) 2B - Ian Kinsler - High ceiling player at a scarce position. Should give 15-20 home runs and steals.
13.) OF - Willy Taveras - A bit of an accident, but he and Ramirez should have me set for steals.
14.) RP - Todd Jones - Not a sexy pick, but if he closes, will get saves.
15.) RP - Takashi Saito - Probably shouldn't have lasted this long in the draft, so I picked him up.
16.) 1B - Prince Fielder - Couldn't believe this guy was still around. Picked him up to slot into my utility spot and back-up a somewhat frail Giambi.
17.) SP - AJ Burnett - If healthy, a steal at this spot. If not, no big loss.
18.) OF - Barry Bonds - Barry Bonds this late? This is a pick that could win me the league, or else cost me nothing, so how could I say no.
19.) 2B - Luis Castillo - Back-up middle infielder with speed. I like this pick this late.
20.) SP - Mark Buehrle - Not a high K pitcher, but could be solid if he puts things back together.
21.) OF - Jeremy Hermida - Could he make the leap this year? It was him or Frank Thomas.....