Hot Of The Presses....Sort Of

Well, I'm probably too late getting this out, but here is what I wanted to post several days ago:

PICK UP JASON FRASOR!

If Frasor is on your wire, pick him up. He's the closer in Toronto with BJ Ryan gone the next 4-6 weeks and thus has plenty of value. Frasor is a good pitcher and has been pretty solid during his first couple of appearances. If you need saves, and who doesn't, then pick this guy up.

ADAM LIND'S VALUE SKYROCKETS!

Adam Lind can rake. The only reason he didn't make the Blue Jays roster is his glove is weak and the Jays are paying Frank Thomas $10 million a year to DH. Fortunately for Lind, the Jays don't have a decent fourth outfielder in the organization and Reed Johnson is getting ready to undergo surgery. This means Lind is going to be starting for the next several weeks to possibly a few months. If you need outfield help, Lind is your man.

BRETT MYERS IS FLYING OFF OF ROSTERS!

After a couple of bad starts, Brett Myers is popping up on all sorts of waiver wires. If you're in a 10 team mixed league or deeper, scoop him up immediately. Myers is too good and you can't let a few bad outings discourage you this much.

Fantasy Notebook: Draft Strategy Review and the Early Going

We're three weeks into the season and already fantasy owners are tripping over themselves out of fear and panic, making irrational decisions to trade away struggling studs, pick up flavour of the months, and drop early strugglers. This is THE most important time of the year to watch the transaction wire to see what's going on. It's also that same time of year to offer up absurdly lopsided trades in your favour to a potential panicking Alfonso Soriano, Lance Berkman or B.J. Ryan owner. This is the fantasy notebook and in it, we'll evaluate the draft strategies I outlined before the season, look at some interesting players and maybe even talk about the worst haircut in baseball.

Strategy Review

1.) Don't Draft a Closer Early - Brad Lidge is no longer closing. BJ Ryan is giving all sorts of fantasy owners buyer's remorse. And Todd Jones (whom I recommended) has 5 saves and a 0.00 ERA. Salomon Torres has 5 saves. Dan Wheeler, Joakim Soria, Al Reyes and Henry Owens went from virtual unknowns to suddenly being thrust into the closer role. Not drafting closers early is the best idea you can have during a draft, assuming you keep a good eye on the waiver wire and a fantasy news site. Every year there emerges a handful of Jeff Zimmermans, Brian Fuenteses, J.J. Putzes and Takashi Saitos. Pitchers nobody had really even heard of that for one reason or another found themselves in a closer's role. And there is always the chance Jose Mesa magically appears on some teams roster. Hey...you're only looking for saves from these guys!!

As we move forward, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the bullpen situations in Cincinatti, Florida, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh. Players like Taylor Tankersly, Bill Bray, Rafael Soriano and Matt Capps could all be closing by the end of the year.

2.) Draft a top 4 catcher or wait until the end of the draft - McCann, Mauer, Martinez and Piazza have all been hitting as advertised. Luckily, if you missed on one of these, you waited until the end of the draft and took a flyer on Russell Martin. I loved this guy last year and I didn't even realize he had a bit of speed. He could get 15 steals, which is free speed from a speedless position, while maintaining similar numbers to a Pudge Rodriguez in other categories. I'm moving him to just behind Piazza in my rankings and if he's cheaply available in your league, pick him up.

3.) Adam LaRoche - I mentioned there wasn't much reason to reach for a 1B early (of course, that doesn't mean you pass on the Lance Berkman's or Mark Teixeira's in the world) because guys like Adam LaRoche could be had cheap. Well, LaRoche is hitting something like 0.085 with no home runs. Still, I'm sticking with him and he makes a tremendous buy low candidate for anyone looking for 1B help. As a matter of fact, he might even be on your waiver wire right now. If you're currently rolling with Conor Jackson or Nomar Garciaparra at 1B, take a flyer on LaRoche, as he should turn things around.

4.) Young Second Basemen - If you didn't pick Chase Utley in the first two rounds, you're pretty much in a crap shoot with second basemen. Luckily, if you went by my rankings, you may have taken a flyer on Ian Kinsler. The guy has been an underappreciated prospect coming up and the guy is currently mashing, playing in a great hitter's park. If he's on your wire, pick him up. I also really like Howie Kendrick and both of these youngsters will be top 5 second basemen by the end of the year.

5.) Dave Roberts vs. Juan Pierre - Just to point out...these guys are currently posting nearly identical stats. The difference? Juan Pierre was being drafted in the first 10 rounds, while Roberts was going undrafted. If you need speed, check the waiver wire for this guy.

6.) My Fave Pitchers - I somehow got slightly sucked into changing my pitcher rankings a bit after being influenced by some other people's opinions when I clearly should have stuck with my guns. I loved Jake Peavy, Felix Hernandez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, and John Lackey at the start of the year. In fact, these players appear on the majority of my drafted teams. All of them are pitching up to, or exceeding, my expectations of them this year. Hopefully you picked these guys, too.

Don't Panic

Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, B.J. Ryan, Brian Roberts, Kenji Johjima, Richie Sexson, Lyle Overbay, Brett Myers and Chad Cordero. What do these players have in common? They were all players I've added to my roster after someone prematurely dumped them from their roster. You have to remember that the season is still young and many players are still getting rid of some rust. All of these players are extremely valuable and were all drafted quite high, so its odd that their owner did not show much patience with them.

Pick-Ups

If any of these players are on your waiver wire, consider picking them up if it makes sense:

Ian Kinsler (2B) - He already has 5 home runs. Will hit for a good average and steal a bit. Oh, and he plays second base. And unlike Dan Uggla, he is SUPPOSED to be playing at this level.

Russell Martin (C) - A bit of power, a bit of speed, batting second in the Dodger line-up. What more do you want from a catcher.

Ian Snell (P) - Believe it or not, this guy is available in almost every single public league. Except for the ones where I could make room for him on my roster. He's legit.

Ty Wigginton (1B, 2B, 3B) - If Wigginton is 2B-eligible in your league, considering picking him up. He should finish behind only Chase Utley in power categories and Tampa is making sure he is in the line-up on a nightly basis. Not a guy you want to use at 1B or 3B, though.

Henry Owens (RP) - Should be the closer in Florida.

Dan Wheeler (RP) - New closer in Houston. Should be a decent second tier closer with an outside chance of becoming elite. Make room for him no matter what.

Brett Myers (SP) - He may end up on alot more waiver wires after today, but he's a very talented pitcher that should get things turned around.

Adam Lind (OF) - If you're desperate for OF help, Lind makes a great short term pick-up while Reed Johnson is on the DL. The only reason Lind isn't in the majors right now is because of his defence. The kid can flat out rake. With Johnson out, Lind will be playing regularly and providing a great average and decent pop.

Magglio Ordonez

Probably the worst hair in baseball.

2007 Baseball Predictions

It's the start of the baseball season tonight and nobody has had their spirits crushed yet (except for Nats, Pirates and Royals fans.....who all know they have nothing to play for this year...again.) Anyways, here are my predictions for the upcoming season, which you can pretty much take as guarantees, as I'm feeling THAT cocky.

AL East

1.) New York Yankees
2.) Boston Red Sox (Wild Card)
3.) Toronto Blue Jays
4.) Baltimore Orioles
5.) Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Every year people pick the Red Sox to finally overtake the Yankees and every year it never happens. While this COULD be the year, its really hard to argue with the Yankee line-up and the rotation shouldn't be as bad as some make it out to be. The Blue Jays should have a fine offence but their pitching (their soft spot last year) actually got worse, which is not good news. Baltimore should be much better this year with an emerging young rotation and some nice offensive players. Tampa has no pitching and, as such, has no chance.

AL Central

1.) Cleveland Indians
2.) Chicago White Sox
3.) Minnesota Twins
4.) Detroit Tigers
5.) Kansas City Royals

Yeah, I don't believe the Detroit Tigers were the real deal last year. I do love the Indians, though. One of the unluckiest teams in the league last year, they should see a nice bounce back this year, especially as their young core of players continue improving. The nice thing here is that Cleveland can afford to trade prospects at the deadline without hurting future successes. The Twins would be my favorite for second in the division if it weren't for pitchers like Ramon Ortiz being in their rotation. The Royals.....yeah.....

AL West

1.) Oakland Athletics
2.) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3.) Texas Rangers
4.) Seattle Mariners

Love me some Athletics. Harden's back (crosses fingers) and players like Chavez and Crosby should be significantly better this year. The Angels are most people's favorites but I just think their pitching lacks sufficient depth to overcome the injury pronedeness of several of their key pitchers. Texas is a sleeper if some of their pitching prospects make the leap...they have plenty of offense. The Mariners have been gutted and built on a flimsy base by the Bavasi regime and it's not pretty.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
(Sleeper): Grady Sizemore

AL CY Young: Johan Santana
(Sleeper): Rich Harden...if he stays healthy.

AL ROY: Alex Gordon (Royals)
(Sleeper): Brandon Wood (Angels)

World Series Representative: Cleveland Indians

NL East

1.) New York Mets
2.) Philadelphia Phillies (Wild Card)
3.) Atlanta Braves
4.) Florida Marlins
5.) Washington Nationals

The Mets have a stacked line-up but the pitching is somewhat questionable. Same with the Phillies, although their rotation is a bit better (though their line-up is less loaded). The Braves will continue slipping and I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish fourth. Look for the Marlins to regress, as I think a few of their key players last year were over their heads (Josh Johnson, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, etc.). The Nationals will likely be the worst team in baseball for the conceivable future.

NL Central

1.) Chicago Cubs
2.) St. Louis Cardinals
3.) Milwaukee Brewers
4.) Houston Astros
5.) Cincinnati Reds
6.) Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cubs should be vastly improved over last year and won't have Dusty Baker holding them back. The Cards pitching is in trouble and their line-up is not aging well right now. Love the Brewers and these guys could make a run if Sheets stays healthy and they take a chance of prospect Gallardo. The 'Stros have talent, but continue to sit it on the bench behind those without it. The Reds traded away many of their good young players for crappy middle relievers last year. The Pirates have a faint glimmer of hope with some intriguing young pitchers but the offense has too many holes.

NL West

1.) San Diego Padres
2.) Los Angeles Dodgers
3.) Arizona Diamondbacks
4.) San Fransico Giants
5.) Colorado Rockies

This is the hardest division to predict. I think it comes down to San Diego vs. Los Angeles, but Arizona and San Fransisco could creep into the picture, depending on how the team ages (San Fran is getting real old, Arizona is very young). That being said, Arizona, San Fran and Colorado could all finish in dead last. The one team I don't think can win it all is Colorado due to their pitching.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
(Sleeper): Prince Fielder

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
(Sleeper): Cole Hamels

NL ROY: Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres)
(Sleeper): Chris Iannetta (Rockies)

World Series Representative: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series Champion: Cleveland Indians