I've been working on a recent idea that would allow you to select each and every pick (most importantly...the early round picks) based on some very simple mathematics. It essentially works like this: fantasy football tends to go with 6 positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, Def) and half the battle is usually trying to figure out which position you should draft each round. Pretty much every so-called expert will tell you to go RB in the first round and either RB or WR in round 2. It's also pretty much universally touted that Peyton Manning should not go in the first round. But how can we quantify that this is the correct strategy? Or better yet, is it even possible that we can?
My method is not purely mathematics. It involves two key things:
1.) Assigning a predicted points total to each player. This is essentially totally up to you and how you feel a player will produce over the entire season. A good start would be to look at three year averages and then add or deduct production based on age, team changes, personnel changes, injury proneness, etc. What you essentially want is to have an assigned points total (using your league's scoring rules) for each player.
2.) Having a list of each players Average Draft Position (ADP). The ADP is calculated by compiling data on a large number of fantasy football drafts each year. What it essentially does is tell us where each player in the draft is going on average.
So how do you use these to calculate which pick you should take? It's really simple math, actually. When it comes to your turn to pick, take a look at the top player at each position. Let's say you have the first overall pick. You have LaDanian Tomlinson pegged for 375 points, Peyton Manning for 300 points, Chad Johnson for 200 points, Antonio Gates for 130 points, Chicago DEF for 200 points and Adam Vinatieri for 150 points.
What you want to do next is go to your ADP and take a look at what would normally still be available with the last pick in the 2nd round (assuming this is a snake draft, that would be your next pick). You then compile a quick list of the top player in your points projections at each position that should still be available according to the ADP. Using the most current data, those players would be Carson Palmer, Clinton Portis, Marvin Harrison, Antonio Gates, Chicago DEF and Adam Vinatieri.
The next step is to take the projected points from the top player at each position in Round 1 and subtract from that your projected points for the top player at each position in Round 2. Let's say, for example, we project Carson Palmer for 280 points, Marvin Harrison for 178 points, and Clinton Portis for 175 points. According to our method we'd get the following point differentials at each position:
QB - 300-280 = 20 points
RB - 375-175 = 200 points
WR - 200-178 = 22 points
TE - 130-130 = 0 points
DEF - 200-200 = 0 points
K - 150-150 = 0 points
You would then select the top player at the position that represents the biggest points differential. With the first overall pick you would be a complete idiot not to draft the top RB on the board (LaDanian Tomlinson). However, as we move through the first round you'll see that points differential begin to equalize to the point that perhaps WR or QB becomes the best position for you to pick.
What this method does is that it helps quantify position scarcity. You'll find that you don't need a top WR in Round 2 because there are so many equally good WRs available in Round 3. It also helps prevent us from reaching at a position. There is nothing worse than grabbing a top TE, DEF, or K too early. Our method shows us that you'd give away 200 points to the rest of the league if you took Antonio Gates with the first pick.
My method is not bullet proof (but then again, no method is). Alot of this method's success depends on your ability to project player's point totals, which is always a hard thing to do. My advice would be to take projected totals from a few respected sources and use an average (while adjusting for injury prone players, etc.) It also might lose some of its potential when people start reaching for various players and the ADP might be totally different than the players that are actually being drafted. But if we use averages across the board, this method should be pretty successful in the long run.
Saturday, June 30, 2007
Thursday, June 28, 2007
On My Mind....
At least the hockey hall of fame voters can get it right. After baseball's hall of fame voters shunned Mark McGwire for ALLEGED steroid use (all while totally neglecting the fact that steroid use was never AGAINST THE RULES OF BASEBALL), it's promising to see a group of voters use logic and common sense instead of using some sort of arbitrary, sentimental reasoning. I mention all of this because there was alot of rumbling about how two good players (Igor Larionov and Glenn Anderson) deserved to get voted in. The problem, of course, is that only four get in. And this year's crop of eligible players included Mark Messier, so really, that only left 3 spots. Most people also considered Ron Francis a slam dunk to get in and I'm not going to argue with that statement. But after that is when things started getting dicey.
Also eligible were two defencemen, Al MacInnis and Scott Stevens, who happened to be two of the best defencemen of the 90's. MacInnis was the premiere offensive defenceman of that decade while Scott Stevens was the premiere defensive defenceman. When I read the list of eligibile players, I included both of these guys as slam dunk, first ballot hall of fame types (and rightfully so). So why, then, were so many sports writers pushing for one of Larionov or Anderson? Does Larionov belong in the Hall? If we take into consideration his international and pre-NHL career, then yes, as he would have been amongst the top scorers in the league every year had Russians been playing in the NHL while he was in his prime.
But what about Glenn Anderson? He was a good, solid player on a great team. But this isn't the Hall of Very Good. Or the Hall of Decent Players on Great Teams. Or even the Hall of Wayne Gretzky Coattail Riders. This is the Hall of Fame. To put things into perspective, should Bernie Williams or Jorge Posada be Hall of Famers? Probably not. They're great players that played on one of the best teams of all time. But they just weren't good enough to be considered elite. (Though Posada may have a chance if he puts together a couple more seasons like this one.) So why should we let Glenn Anderson in? If we let him in, we have to start considering players like Mark Recchi or Rod Brind'Amour. Recchi and Brind'Amour are good players, no doubt, but they just aren't worthy of the Hall of Fame.
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How bad is Isaiah Thomas' General Managerial skills? Considering the mess he left behind in Toronto and the mess he is currently creating in New York, I'd say pretty bad. Yet he was such a poor GM of the Raptors that the team is STILL paying the price. This year the Raptors were left with no draft picks. Their 2nd round pick went to Portland as a result of a trade that Isaiah Thomas made in 1997. 1997!!!!!!! That was 10 years ago! TEN! How the hell does any ownership group allow their general manager to trade a draft pick for a draft 10 years down the road? Who thought this was a good idea?
But let's not entirely blame Thomas for this year. Also on the hook is another pretty lousy GM, Glen Grunwald. He traded the Raptors first round pick in this year's draft in 2002 (FIVE years ago! What the hell???) in order to acquire Lamond Murray (yeah....THAT Lamond Murray....(I don't know who he is, either, but he's ranked 76 in NBA 2K1, so what a great deal!)). How does any ownership group allow their GM to mortgage their distant future so badly? And for such minimal return!?! You can't blame the GMs for these trades....they're jobs are year to year for the most part so they really don't feel the reprecussions of gambling away the future for present successes.
My advice to any sports franchise out there is to find a great GM and offer him a LONG term, secure contract. Seriously. The Oakland Athletics just did this with Billy Beane and its a brilliant idea. Beane just signed a 7 year contract. What this means is that Beane is happy, as he is guaranteed a sizeable income for the next 7 years. But Oakland should also be happy. Not only did they secure the services of one of the brightest front office minds in all of sports, but they can also rest easy knowing Beane isn't going to do anything stupid and mortgage the future for immediate success. In order for Beane to produce over the length of his contract (and let's assume he'll want to get resigned to another contract in 7 years), he has to make decisions right now that will ensure that his baseball team is still able to compete into the future. Ie. We won't be seeing Billy Beane trade away long term assets for minimal present value.
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I love reading hockey articles this time of the year. The hyperbole used to describe player's skills is hilarious. I've read that if Washington were to sign Mike Comrie this offseason, they'd immediately become cup contenders. Seriously? Mike Comrie is the key to turning a team into a contender? Has anybody watched this guy play the last, oh....5 years? It's funny following along with this year's UFA crop. Players like Briere, Drury, Gomez, and Souray are considered the cream of the crop. Mark my words....each one of those players will end up signing contracts that their team will soon regret. Especially Drury. Why is this guy considered the best player available? He's a solid two way forward, no doubt, but he's simply a younger version of Mike Peca with maybe a touch more offensive upside. And don't even get me started on Souray. I truly hope Montreal resigns him to a long term contract (I say this as a Boston Bruin fan.)
Also eligible were two defencemen, Al MacInnis and Scott Stevens, who happened to be two of the best defencemen of the 90's. MacInnis was the premiere offensive defenceman of that decade while Scott Stevens was the premiere defensive defenceman. When I read the list of eligibile players, I included both of these guys as slam dunk, first ballot hall of fame types (and rightfully so). So why, then, were so many sports writers pushing for one of Larionov or Anderson? Does Larionov belong in the Hall? If we take into consideration his international and pre-NHL career, then yes, as he would have been amongst the top scorers in the league every year had Russians been playing in the NHL while he was in his prime.
But what about Glenn Anderson? He was a good, solid player on a great team. But this isn't the Hall of Very Good. Or the Hall of Decent Players on Great Teams. Or even the Hall of Wayne Gretzky Coattail Riders. This is the Hall of Fame. To put things into perspective, should Bernie Williams or Jorge Posada be Hall of Famers? Probably not. They're great players that played on one of the best teams of all time. But they just weren't good enough to be considered elite. (Though Posada may have a chance if he puts together a couple more seasons like this one.) So why should we let Glenn Anderson in? If we let him in, we have to start considering players like Mark Recchi or Rod Brind'Amour. Recchi and Brind'Amour are good players, no doubt, but they just aren't worthy of the Hall of Fame.
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How bad is Isaiah Thomas' General Managerial skills? Considering the mess he left behind in Toronto and the mess he is currently creating in New York, I'd say pretty bad. Yet he was such a poor GM of the Raptors that the team is STILL paying the price. This year the Raptors were left with no draft picks. Their 2nd round pick went to Portland as a result of a trade that Isaiah Thomas made in 1997. 1997!!!!!!! That was 10 years ago! TEN! How the hell does any ownership group allow their general manager to trade a draft pick for a draft 10 years down the road? Who thought this was a good idea?
But let's not entirely blame Thomas for this year. Also on the hook is another pretty lousy GM, Glen Grunwald. He traded the Raptors first round pick in this year's draft in 2002 (FIVE years ago! What the hell???) in order to acquire Lamond Murray (yeah....THAT Lamond Murray....(I don't know who he is, either, but he's ranked 76 in NBA 2K1, so what a great deal!)). How does any ownership group allow their GM to mortgage their distant future so badly? And for such minimal return!?! You can't blame the GMs for these trades....they're jobs are year to year for the most part so they really don't feel the reprecussions of gambling away the future for present successes.
My advice to any sports franchise out there is to find a great GM and offer him a LONG term, secure contract. Seriously. The Oakland Athletics just did this with Billy Beane and its a brilliant idea. Beane just signed a 7 year contract. What this means is that Beane is happy, as he is guaranteed a sizeable income for the next 7 years. But Oakland should also be happy. Not only did they secure the services of one of the brightest front office minds in all of sports, but they can also rest easy knowing Beane isn't going to do anything stupid and mortgage the future for immediate success. In order for Beane to produce over the length of his contract (and let's assume he'll want to get resigned to another contract in 7 years), he has to make decisions right now that will ensure that his baseball team is still able to compete into the future. Ie. We won't be seeing Billy Beane trade away long term assets for minimal present value.
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I love reading hockey articles this time of the year. The hyperbole used to describe player's skills is hilarious. I've read that if Washington were to sign Mike Comrie this offseason, they'd immediately become cup contenders. Seriously? Mike Comrie is the key to turning a team into a contender? Has anybody watched this guy play the last, oh....5 years? It's funny following along with this year's UFA crop. Players like Briere, Drury, Gomez, and Souray are considered the cream of the crop. Mark my words....each one of those players will end up signing contracts that their team will soon regret. Especially Drury. Why is this guy considered the best player available? He's a solid two way forward, no doubt, but he's simply a younger version of Mike Peca with maybe a touch more offensive upside. And don't even get me started on Souray. I truly hope Montreal resigns him to a long term contract (I say this as a Boston Bruin fan.)
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Read Your League Rules!
I'm a geek and a nerd. I participate in mock football drafts over at Mock Draft Central. I recently participated in a 10 team draft and upon looking at the rules I noticed a bit of a quirk. Instead of the regular QB TD being worth 4 or 5 points and the RB/WR/TE TDs being worth 6 points each, QB TDs were worth 10 points and RB/WR/TE TDs were worth 8 points. I don't know why, but this scoring system suddenly puts a much greater emphasis on the QB spot. I picked up the 3rd pick in the draft and the first pick was LT2, the second was Steven Jackson and it gets to me at three. Without hesitation, and for the first time I ever, I select Peyton Manning. And of course out come the boo birds. "What a horrible pick!" "Wow....what a noob!" and "I just don't understand how anybody could pass on Larry Johnson or Frank Gore for a QB." When the draft was over and done with and we voted on each team's draft, I got horrible marks and my Peyton Manning pick was voted as the worst pick of my draft.
Too bad this wasn't a real league. The thing people forget is to read their league rules. If it's not a standard, public league....read your freaking scoring rules. Sometimes a sneaky commish will put in all sorts of bonus points on defence, creating an inflated value on defence. Other times, there might be an inflated or deflated value on QB. Same as with kickers...sometimes length of field goals can create huge bonus points. Other times kick and punt returns give you points, adding value to a player like Maurice Jones-Drew or Devin Hester. Any sort of different rule can drastically change how you rank players....sometimes making those fancy player rankings you find in a magazine almost useless. Such was this league.
The reason why RB is such a premiere postion in fantasy football is, besides from the frequency of injuries causing everyone to carry as much depth as possible, is that most scoring systems favor the back. Most points systems give more points per RB TD than QB TD. Many points system award points per reception, making pass catching RBs extremely valuable. The fact is, RBs touch the ball more than WRs, so they tend to score more and consistently gain 80-100 yards. And since the RB TD is worth more than the QB TD, there is a greater emphasis on getting premiere running backs. But back to my league.....my league rewards QB TDs MORE than RB TDs. It doesn't reward RBs for receptions or touches in anyway. In fact, it even had a bit better reward for passing yardage than most standard leagues. After looking at the rules, I quickly decided I was drafting the top QB on the board in the first round, no matter what my pick. It was just too good not to. So I went with the safest, most consistent, and simply dominating QB available in Peyton Manning. It was clear the rest of those competing in the draft did not read the rules, as the 2nd QB taken wasn't picked until the 4th round (Carson Palmer.....extremely good value...though likely by fluke). Did I draft Manning too early? No...as he probably doesn't fall to me in the 2nd round. Regardless, Manning should be ranked the top player according to these rules, Carson Palmer 2nd and then probably LT2. Tom Brady and Marc Bulger should be legitimate 1st/2nd round picks in this format.
That's my fantasy rant for the day.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Fantasy Football Draft in June, 2
A lazy Sunday evening with questionable weather looming meant another fantasy football draft to partake in. I wanted to get two done early to get an early feel of how things might shake out. My draft strategy (which I'll probably go into more depth in a bit) usually revolves around addressing RB and WR early, although that can change a bit, as was demonstrated in this draft. I was crapping my pants early, after things didn't seem to be going my way, but made up for it quite a bit in the later part of this draft. This was a standard 10 team league on Yahoo in which I had the 7th pick to start.
Round 1: RB Joseph Addai (IND) - I had a tough decision here between Addai and Alexander. I like Alexander's ceiling better, but Addai is simply a much safer bet both healthwise and system wise, so I went with the surer thing.
Round 2: RB Ronnie Brown (MIA) - Would have went with Reggie Bush here in a PPR league but like Brown better here. The second round was surprisingly WR heavy. This pick gives me two good starting RBs, which is NEVER a bad thing.
Round 3: QB Carson Palmer (CIN) - None of the top tier WRs I was targetting fell to this pick and I just didn't think any of the WRs left were far enough from the pack to take one here. Instead, I went with a healthy Carson Palmer, who I think has the weapons around him to have a better season than Peyton Manning. A truly elite tier QB, which could not be said of the remaining WRs.
Round 4: TE Antonio Gates (SD) - This is a bit of a reach, yes, but I simply didn't like the WRs in round three and any fringe guys I was considering then were picked up before it got back to my pick. So I decided to pick the best possible TE (by a fairly wide margin) on the board.
Round 5: RB Edgerrin James (ARI) - I thought that I'd HAVE to go WR here but James in round 5 was too good to pass up. I also figured that with the run of WRs this early, some of the guys I'd consider at this pick would probably slip a round or two further.
Round 6: WR Reggie Brown (PHI) - A solid receiver who is effective in the red zone. Should have better numbers if Donovan McNabb can stay healthy. Not pretty or trendy, but effective. This is also the part of the draft that I HAD to pick some WRs.
Round 7: WR Chris Chambers (MIA) - Had a major down season last year but let's be honest...the guy was trying to catch balls from Daunte Culpepper (the 2006 edition, not 2004) and Joey Harrington. Might not be a superstar, but should get his yards.
Round 8: WR Calvin Johnson (DET) - Not addressing your WR position early means you have to take a chance on the one possible home run hitter still left on the board. I never like rookie WRs, but Johnson is the most talented rookie WR since Randy Moss, so I don't mind this pick in 8, which seems about right.
Round 9: RB Marshawn Lynch (BUF) - Lynch in round 9? I saw him there and thought....can I pass on him here? Far too much value to not draft him here. For whatever reason, teams were going crazy drafting defences and kickers before "all the good ones were picked" while this is where I started picking up ALOT of good value and creating significant depth.
Round 10: WR Vincent Jackson (SD) - All I do is read good stuff on this guy. I was actually thinking of taking him in 8 instead of Johnson, but decided to take the guy with the higher ceiling if taking a guy based on potential. Jackson gives me another decent option and depth at WR.
Round 11: WR Donte Stallworth (NE) - Another good deep threat. When he was healthy with Philly last year he had some monster games. Talent is not the issue here, it's health. A nice option as a 5th receiver that I can use when healthy and when the match-up is right.
Round 12: QB Jay Cutler (DEN) - I ignored a back-up QB since Palmer seems healthy and is a major stud, so I was surprised to still see Cutler sitting here. I don't buy into the Cutler hype quite as much as others but I'll gladly take him in 12 as a back-up QB.
Round 13: RB Ladell Betts (WAS) - Another player that I couldn't pass up despite not really needing a 5th RB on the roster. If (when?) Portis blows out his shoulder again, Betts should prove to be a very valuable player....possibly providing the same value as a 2nd/3rd round RB.
Round 14: DEF Jacksonville - Considering a back-up defence was drafted before players like Jay Cutler, I was VERY surprised to see a defence of Jacksonville's calibre hanging around in the second last round.
Round 15: K Aaron Barrett (KC) - Kicker was pretty combed over and I decided to take a flyer on the rookie Chiefs kicker. If he doesn't nail down the job I'll just pick another kicker off the scrap heap....we are talking about kickers here, after all.
I was crapping my pants at the start of the draft as I continued to see WRs getting picked and noticing the zero receivers I had on my roster. My RB depth and talent is ridiculous and I have the top TE and possibly top QB in the game, so I'm very comfortable there. My only weakness is at WR, but I ended up getting 5 decent options to cycle through in Brown, Chambers, Johnson, Jackson and Stallworth. This gives me the opportunity to play the hot hand, adjust for injuries and play match-ups in order to get solid production from the receiver position. The real strength of this team, though, is depth. It's going to take ALOT of injuries to take a serious dent of out of this squad's competitiveness.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
First Fantasy Football Draft Results of the Year!
I was sick today from work with nothing to do this afternoon, so I partook in a football draft. I ended up getting the last pick (1o team league) which is nice in one way, guaranteeing yourself two good running backs, but bad in that your next pick isn't for a long time and you usually miss out on a top end WR/QB in round 3. The starting roster is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF. Let's look at my results.
Round 1 - RB Ronnie Brown (Mia) - I gotta keep believing in my boy Brown. I was highly disappointed to see Fast Willie Parker go the pick before this, hoping Parker would continue the slide. Brown is the man in Miami and should get plenty of touches to go with his great natural talent. Since I had back to back picks, don't read too much into the fact that I picked Brown before....
Round 2 - RB Joseph Addai (Ind) - The Colts are going to score lots of TDs. Addai is going to get alot of those TDs, especially considering he no longer has to worry about Dominic Rhodes vulturing them away. Landing the starting RB in the most explosive offence in the league is NEVER a bad idea.
Round 3 - WR Anquan Boldin (Ari) - This guy has put up a couple of solid seasons now and I'm looking for him to improve being a year more comfortable with Leinart and Larry Fitzgerald (who almost slipped to this pick....dang!) continuing to draw the majority of double teams. Was also going to go with Carson Palmer here, as I think he'll be HUGE this year, but alas, he was taken the pick before this.
Round 4 - WR Roy Williams (Det) - Another back to back pick of the same position. I've been big on Williams for awhile now and I'm encouraged by the fact that opposing defences will now have to focus not only on Williams, but new fellow deep play threat Calvin Johnson.
Round 5 - RB Cadillac Williams (TB) - I'm a huge supporter of RB depth and liked Cadillac as a value pick here. I think he rebounds from last year and comes closer to his rookie season numbers. Just missed out on Brandon Jacobs with this pick.
Round 6 - WR Deion Branch (Sea) - We start 3 WR so I took the most talented WR available. Branch plays in a great system for WRs and he is now the top dog on the food chain in Seattle, so I look for him to perform at least as well as the Lee Evans' of this world. Remember, last year he missed training camp because of a contract dispute with New England.
Round 7 - QB Matt Hasselbeck (Sea) - Injury last season brought his numbers down but this guy has been a consistent top 5 QB for a few years now and I don't see any reason why that should change.
Round 8 - TE Alge Crumpler (Atl) - With rounds 7 and 8 I was hoping to address QB and TE with some highly talented yet seemingly underrated players. I did just that with Crumpler, who in my opinion is easily the 2nd best TE to own in fantasy football behind Antonio Gates.
Round 9 - RB LaMont Jordan (Oak) - I still believe Jordan has the talent and considering the lack of RB depth in Oakland, he'll get his touches. This pick set me up at the RB position with 4 talented starters.
Round 10 - WR Greg Jennings (GB) - WR depth was thin here, so I picked a talented youngster in a great system. Brett Favre's picks don't have a huge effect on his receivers, and considering his gun-slinging, force it in their ways, his top two WR (Driver and Jennings) will get there yardage and TDs.
Round 11 - QB Eli Manning (NYG) - Not a huge Eli fan and I do think he's overrated, but I thought it was good value at this point in the draft. None of the receivers inspired me and I was set at RB, so I added a heatlhy, sure starting QB that can sling it. Just missed on Vince Young, who slipped to this round, surprisingly.
Round 12 - WR Drew Bennett (STL) - Not much WR talent left at this point and I think Bennett can pass Bruce on the depth chart this year. Bennett is also a good red zone target and with Marc Bulger slining it, he should have decent potential. Strangely, I was berated by some guys for making these two picks, despite the fact players like LJ Smith, Devery Henderson, and Mushin Muhammed were drafted AHEAD of these guys.
Round 13 - K Neil Rackers (Ari) - Was a stud two years ago and was not so great last year. It was the third last round...I needed a kicker....he was as good a bet as anybody.
Round 14 - TE Tony Scheffler (Den) - Could miss time but there wasn't much else available I liked. Great low risk, high reward pick at this point.
Round 15 - DEF Carolina (CAR) - This is why you don't draft a defense early. The Panthers still have a world of talent on the defensive side of the ball and were the last defense picked...with the last pick in the draft.
Scouring the Wire
Anybody can tell you some superstar players to buy low on, but what happens if you're not looking to make a trade? What happens when you're simply trying to fill in some holes off the waiver wire? Have no fear, as today I'm going to look at players owned in less than half of most standard public leagues and go position by position. Without further adieu...
Catcher
Catcher is the shallowest position and is usually the hardest to address off the waiver wire, though it can be done. For starters, John Buck is widely available and has excellent power for a catcher. He won't help in batting average a whole lot and RBIs and runs are hard to come by in KC, though. If you're looking for the latter, Johnny Estrada or A.J. Pierzynski could be more your style, playing in better line-ups. And watch out for Jarrod Saltalamacchia...the kid has been raking and could force Atlanta to give him more time at 1B when McCann gets healthy.
First Base
The position of sluggers. Usually lots of decent depth here, though the gap between the elite and the has beens is often large. Still, you could do worse than target a guy like Casey Kotchman, who should provide a great batting average and moderate power, ala Lyle Overbay. Adam LaRoche is slowly starting to hit the ball a little better, though I've never liked him as a great source of batting average. And finally, Dmitri Young has started hitting a hot bat as well...however, if you're considering him as an option, you're probably not winning your league. A sleeper to continue watching is Ryan Garko in Cleveland. That line-up is potent from top to bottom and he should get plenty of runs and RBI chances.
Second Base
Kaz Matsui and Brendan Harris are very uninspiring options at second base, but both have been raking. Matsui should provide you with some decent speed and Harris with some power. I'd still rather prefer the following two options: Josh Barfield is also in that Cleveland line-up and has really started hitting well after a horrible start. Look for moderate power and speed with a decent average the rest of the way out. The other option to consider is Dustin Pedroia in Boston. He's not going to give you much speed or power, but he should have a decent average and he has been batting nearer the top of that line-up lately, which should mean bunches of runs.
Third Base
I remember an article in SI about 10 years ago that talked about the lack of depth at 3B in baseball. Well...no more. The position is so deep that solid fantasy option such as Mark Teahen, Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen and Chad Tracy are all available. Each has his flaws, though Chavez has been hitting well. Tracy is coming back from injury and could provide value, though I probably prefer Teahen of all the options. A bit of a sleeper is Edwin Encarnacion...the kid can smoke the ball when he wants to and has been playing much better since an ill-advised (on the Reds behalf) demotion to Triple A.
Shortstop
The drop off in shortstop value is steep. You basically NEED a top 10 guy to compete. If you're desperate you're left with options such as Brendan Harris, Dustin Pedroia, Felipe Lopez, Bobby Crosby or Stephen Drew. Pedroia is probably the safest option, while Drew has the highest ceiling and plays in a pretty good offense. Hopefully you have your top 10 guy.
Outfield
Outfield is deep. You can usually get by without having elite outfielders if you focus on outfielders with specialized talents (a power guy, a speed guy, etc.). So what are we left with if we need to address this problem? Well, Mark Teahen, J.D. Drew and Pat Burrell come to mind immediately. All three have the ability to hit a baseball well. Drew and Burrell have struggled, but if either heats up for any length of time, watch out. If its speed your after, Corey Hart is your man. He's seeing more and more time at the top of the Brewers order and is simply producing. Another name to keep an eye on is Reggie Willits in Anaheim, though he may not see enough playing time with healthy bodies returning. As for some young guys to keep an eye on: Matt Kemp was recently brought back and he could produce decent power numbers if he gets playing time. I also like Chris Young (Ari) as a power speed combination, but I think next year will be his coming out party.
Starting Pitching
Chances are, any decent starting pitcher is owned in your league. Depending on how you're fairing and the format of your league, you may want to consider cycling through starters to increase your strike-outs, saves and wins, will likely forfeiting ERA and WHIP. Anyways, here's some players to consider.
Joe Blanton - not a huge strike-out guy, but has decent ERA and WHIP.
Mike Mussina - Could start pitching better as the Yankees turn things around.
Gil Meche - Nothing fancy, but has been more effective than predicted.
Ervin Santana - Great K potential, really struggling on the road. Could have a solid second half.
Daniel Cabrera - Frustrating to own but puts up lots of K's.
Javier Vazquez - Underrated...decent K's and his WHIP is lower than I expected.
Mark Buerhle - Overrated in fantasy, but still rosterable in some leagues.
Josh Johnson - Coming back from DL, looked decent in rehab.
Yovanni Gallardo - Brewers uber-prospect. Look for him to either shine or get lit up.
Closers
Chances are, not many closers are available on the wire, so instead we'll look at could-be-closers that should still have some value as a RP.
Rafael Soriano - Bob Wickman is old. Soriano has dirty, dirty stuff.
Joakim Soria - Pitched effectively when Dotel was out. Could return to closers role via Dotel trade or injury.
Jonathan Broxton - Next in line behind Saito.
Scot Shields - I'm surprised K-Rod still has his arm attached. Shields is next in line and might valuable as is.
Joel Zumaya - More long term thinking here. Todd Jones is a bad pitcher.
Eddie Guardado - Returning from DL. Will be a factor in a messy Reds bullpen.
Jorge Julio - Expect Fuentes to be traded by the deadline...may hand reigns over to overrated Julio.
Casey Janssen - With Accardo struggling, Janssen could see some time at closer.
Catcher
Catcher is the shallowest position and is usually the hardest to address off the waiver wire, though it can be done. For starters, John Buck is widely available and has excellent power for a catcher. He won't help in batting average a whole lot and RBIs and runs are hard to come by in KC, though. If you're looking for the latter, Johnny Estrada or A.J. Pierzynski could be more your style, playing in better line-ups. And watch out for Jarrod Saltalamacchia...the kid has been raking and could force Atlanta to give him more time at 1B when McCann gets healthy.
First Base
The position of sluggers. Usually lots of decent depth here, though the gap between the elite and the has beens is often large. Still, you could do worse than target a guy like Casey Kotchman, who should provide a great batting average and moderate power, ala Lyle Overbay. Adam LaRoche is slowly starting to hit the ball a little better, though I've never liked him as a great source of batting average. And finally, Dmitri Young has started hitting a hot bat as well...however, if you're considering him as an option, you're probably not winning your league. A sleeper to continue watching is Ryan Garko in Cleveland. That line-up is potent from top to bottom and he should get plenty of runs and RBI chances.
Second Base
Kaz Matsui and Brendan Harris are very uninspiring options at second base, but both have been raking. Matsui should provide you with some decent speed and Harris with some power. I'd still rather prefer the following two options: Josh Barfield is also in that Cleveland line-up and has really started hitting well after a horrible start. Look for moderate power and speed with a decent average the rest of the way out. The other option to consider is Dustin Pedroia in Boston. He's not going to give you much speed or power, but he should have a decent average and he has been batting nearer the top of that line-up lately, which should mean bunches of runs.
Third Base
I remember an article in SI about 10 years ago that talked about the lack of depth at 3B in baseball. Well...no more. The position is so deep that solid fantasy option such as Mark Teahen, Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen and Chad Tracy are all available. Each has his flaws, though Chavez has been hitting well. Tracy is coming back from injury and could provide value, though I probably prefer Teahen of all the options. A bit of a sleeper is Edwin Encarnacion...the kid can smoke the ball when he wants to and has been playing much better since an ill-advised (on the Reds behalf) demotion to Triple A.
Shortstop
The drop off in shortstop value is steep. You basically NEED a top 10 guy to compete. If you're desperate you're left with options such as Brendan Harris, Dustin Pedroia, Felipe Lopez, Bobby Crosby or Stephen Drew. Pedroia is probably the safest option, while Drew has the highest ceiling and plays in a pretty good offense. Hopefully you have your top 10 guy.
Outfield
Outfield is deep. You can usually get by without having elite outfielders if you focus on outfielders with specialized talents (a power guy, a speed guy, etc.). So what are we left with if we need to address this problem? Well, Mark Teahen, J.D. Drew and Pat Burrell come to mind immediately. All three have the ability to hit a baseball well. Drew and Burrell have struggled, but if either heats up for any length of time, watch out. If its speed your after, Corey Hart is your man. He's seeing more and more time at the top of the Brewers order and is simply producing. Another name to keep an eye on is Reggie Willits in Anaheim, though he may not see enough playing time with healthy bodies returning. As for some young guys to keep an eye on: Matt Kemp was recently brought back and he could produce decent power numbers if he gets playing time. I also like Chris Young (Ari) as a power speed combination, but I think next year will be his coming out party.
Starting Pitching
Chances are, any decent starting pitcher is owned in your league. Depending on how you're fairing and the format of your league, you may want to consider cycling through starters to increase your strike-outs, saves and wins, will likely forfeiting ERA and WHIP. Anyways, here's some players to consider.
Joe Blanton - not a huge strike-out guy, but has decent ERA and WHIP.
Mike Mussina - Could start pitching better as the Yankees turn things around.
Gil Meche - Nothing fancy, but has been more effective than predicted.
Ervin Santana - Great K potential, really struggling on the road. Could have a solid second half.
Daniel Cabrera - Frustrating to own but puts up lots of K's.
Javier Vazquez - Underrated...decent K's and his WHIP is lower than I expected.
Mark Buerhle - Overrated in fantasy, but still rosterable in some leagues.
Josh Johnson - Coming back from DL, looked decent in rehab.
Yovanni Gallardo - Brewers uber-prospect. Look for him to either shine or get lit up.
Closers
Chances are, not many closers are available on the wire, so instead we'll look at could-be-closers that should still have some value as a RP.
Rafael Soriano - Bob Wickman is old. Soriano has dirty, dirty stuff.
Joakim Soria - Pitched effectively when Dotel was out. Could return to closers role via Dotel trade or injury.
Jonathan Broxton - Next in line behind Saito.
Scot Shields - I'm surprised K-Rod still has his arm attached. Shields is next in line and might valuable as is.
Joel Zumaya - More long term thinking here. Todd Jones is a bad pitcher.
Eddie Guardado - Returning from DL. Will be a factor in a messy Reds bullpen.
Jorge Julio - Expect Fuentes to be traded by the deadline...may hand reigns over to overrated Julio.
Casey Janssen - With Accardo struggling, Janssen could see some time at closer.
Saturday, June 9, 2007
Fantasy Sports Ethics
One of the most frustrating things in fantasy sports is the trade process. Not so much trying to consumate a deal...rather....the hoopla of getting your trade proposal accepted by what can often be passenger seat GM's telling people how to run their teams. This is a MAJOR problem in public leagues where a trade is often vetoed (through the process of league vote) if there is even a whiff of one team getting the better end of the deal.
A recent example was a trade proposal I received in one league from the 3rd place team (I was 2nd at the time). We were both active and competing and there is no money on the line, so neither of us are looking to collude together and take advantage of anyone. The offer proposed to me was his Alfonso Soriano, Travis Hafner and Rich Harden for my Vladimir Guerrero, Chris Young and Al Reyes. I don't ask why people want certain players unless I'm offering a counter-offer, so I accepted the trade since I was significantly improving my offense and dealing from my deep relief pitching. The trade was rejected. Yes, I was receiving the better end of this trade on paper, but there are some things to look at: Soriano and Hafner were both struggling at the time of the trade. Rich Harden is ALWAYS on the DL. And Al Reyes has been a lights out closer this year. My trading partner had ONE relief pitcher on his roster (12 team league). He NEEDS a relief pitcher in order to have any shot of winning and he knows he has to pay the price.
I wasn't going to give up on this deal yet. Since Hafner is only DH eligible, I offered him a sweeter deal that involved my sending him Jim Thome, who is also only DH eligible. I sent Guerrero, Thome and Reyes for Soriano, Hafner and Oliver Perez. I don't think you can honestly look at this trade and say that it should be rejected in any league. Not even a day later, the trade was vetoed. The moment after it was vetoed, I received 3 trade offers for Vladimir Guerrero...all of them offering me MUCH lower than market value. It was at this point I realized the bush leaguedness of the owners in this league and I sent each one of them an e-mail telling them which sexual act they may perform on themselves. I then dropped my entire roster to the waiver wire and have not addressed the league since.
So when should we veto trades? I've been a commissioner in both hockey and football pools and my theory is: very rarely, if at all. This especially holds true in leagues that has a cash entry and prize. I've long stood firm in the belief that once someone has paid their entry fee, they have the right to run their team as badly as they want to. It's not anyone elses job to babysit them or protect them. We're not allowed to veto someone's horrible all-in call in a poker tournament, so why would we allow it in a fantasy league?
The way we've run trades when I've been commissioner is that all trades go through me. If a trade is accepted, I get an e-mail and I process it. I take a quick look at the talent being swapped and if its not blatantly ridiculous, I allow it, even if one team is getting the short end of the stuck. I've only vetoed one trade...it involved three legitimate superstar players being traded for a back-up goalie and two second line wingers. Between two friends. One at the top of the standings, the other at the bottom.
It is of my opinion that the only time a trade should ever be vetoed is if there is pretty clear evidence of collusion. That might be a GM in last place giving up and trading his best players to his friend for trash. Or it might be a one-sided deal between friends in some sort of move to help one friend win the league and the other friend getting a cut of the prize money.
The one complaint is that a bad GM that gives up his players for below value is creating an unfair advantage for his trading partner. However, the rest of the league has nobody to blame but themselves. Negotiating trades is a skill. Some people can simply negotiate a better deal than others. And its a skill relevant to fantasy sports, so why should someone be punished by not allowing them to use this skill? The other point is that actively negotiating and proposing trades is part of the routine of a good fantasy GM. If you're not working the lines of communication to get trades going, you have no right to complain about someone who is.
In all my years, I've never had a problem with allowing unfair trades. No major issues have ever arised. Have teams significantly improved and finished higher than they would have? Of course...that's the whole point of making a trade. I've also seen the opposite happen, where the guy thought to be getting screwed, actually comes out way ahead.
A recent example was a trade proposal I received in one league from the 3rd place team (I was 2nd at the time). We were both active and competing and there is no money on the line, so neither of us are looking to collude together and take advantage of anyone. The offer proposed to me was his Alfonso Soriano, Travis Hafner and Rich Harden for my Vladimir Guerrero, Chris Young and Al Reyes. I don't ask why people want certain players unless I'm offering a counter-offer, so I accepted the trade since I was significantly improving my offense and dealing from my deep relief pitching. The trade was rejected. Yes, I was receiving the better end of this trade on paper, but there are some things to look at: Soriano and Hafner were both struggling at the time of the trade. Rich Harden is ALWAYS on the DL. And Al Reyes has been a lights out closer this year. My trading partner had ONE relief pitcher on his roster (12 team league). He NEEDS a relief pitcher in order to have any shot of winning and he knows he has to pay the price.
I wasn't going to give up on this deal yet. Since Hafner is only DH eligible, I offered him a sweeter deal that involved my sending him Jim Thome, who is also only DH eligible. I sent Guerrero, Thome and Reyes for Soriano, Hafner and Oliver Perez. I don't think you can honestly look at this trade and say that it should be rejected in any league. Not even a day later, the trade was vetoed. The moment after it was vetoed, I received 3 trade offers for Vladimir Guerrero...all of them offering me MUCH lower than market value. It was at this point I realized the bush leaguedness of the owners in this league and I sent each one of them an e-mail telling them which sexual act they may perform on themselves. I then dropped my entire roster to the waiver wire and have not addressed the league since.
So when should we veto trades? I've been a commissioner in both hockey and football pools and my theory is: very rarely, if at all. This especially holds true in leagues that has a cash entry and prize. I've long stood firm in the belief that once someone has paid their entry fee, they have the right to run their team as badly as they want to. It's not anyone elses job to babysit them or protect them. We're not allowed to veto someone's horrible all-in call in a poker tournament, so why would we allow it in a fantasy league?
The way we've run trades when I've been commissioner is that all trades go through me. If a trade is accepted, I get an e-mail and I process it. I take a quick look at the talent being swapped and if its not blatantly ridiculous, I allow it, even if one team is getting the short end of the stuck. I've only vetoed one trade...it involved three legitimate superstar players being traded for a back-up goalie and two second line wingers. Between two friends. One at the top of the standings, the other at the bottom.
It is of my opinion that the only time a trade should ever be vetoed is if there is pretty clear evidence of collusion. That might be a GM in last place giving up and trading his best players to his friend for trash. Or it might be a one-sided deal between friends in some sort of move to help one friend win the league and the other friend getting a cut of the prize money.
The one complaint is that a bad GM that gives up his players for below value is creating an unfair advantage for his trading partner. However, the rest of the league has nobody to blame but themselves. Negotiating trades is a skill. Some people can simply negotiate a better deal than others. And its a skill relevant to fantasy sports, so why should someone be punished by not allowing them to use this skill? The other point is that actively negotiating and proposing trades is part of the routine of a good fantasy GM. If you're not working the lines of communication to get trades going, you have no right to complain about someone who is.
In all my years, I've never had a problem with allowing unfair trades. No major issues have ever arised. Have teams significantly improved and finished higher than they would have? Of course...that's the whole point of making a trade. I've also seen the opposite happen, where the guy thought to be getting screwed, actually comes out way ahead.
Fantasy All Stars
We're taking a quick look at the top fantasy performers at each position so far to create two fantasy all star squads (one AL and one NL). (Hitters stats are listed as AVG/HR/RBI and pitchers are W-L/ERA/K)
American League
C - Victor Martinez (Indians) - .318/12/52
1B - Mark Teixeira (Rangares) - .302/12/41
2B - B.J. Upton (Devil Rays) - .320/9/31 13 SB
3B - Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) - .301/22/56 6 SB
SS - Derek Jeter (Yankees) - .332/4/31 5 SB
OF - Grady Sizemore (Indians) - .276/10/31 18 SB
OF - Torii Hunter (Twins) - .306/13/48 9 SB
OF - Vladimir Guerrero (Angels) - .348/12/53 1 SB
DH - David Ortiz (Red Sox) - .337/11/42
SP - Dan Haren (Athletics) - 6-2/1.70/70
SP - Josh Beckett (Red Sox) - 9-0/2.87/67
SP - John Lackey (Angels) - 9-4/2.60/67
SP - Johan Santana (Twins) - 6-5/3.30/91
CP - J.J. Putz (Mariners) - 0-0/1.32/27 16 Saves
CP - Al Reyes (Devil Rays) - 1-0/2.02/32 15 Saves
National League
C - Russell Martin (Dodgers) - .302/7/40 9 SB
1B- Prince Fielder (Brewers) - .298/22/49
2B - Chase Utley (Phillies) - .303/11/48 3 SB
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Marlins) - .323/12/43
SS - Jose Reyes (Mets) - .310/2/26 31 SB
OF - Matt Holliday (Rockies) - .355/10/46 3 SB
OF - Carlos Lee (Astros) - .308/11/52 4 SB
OF - Alfonso Soriano (Cubs) - .326/10/21 8 SB
SP - Jake Peavy (Padres) - 7-1/1.97/95
SP - Cole Hamels (Phillies) - 8-2/3.57/96
SP - Rich Hill (Cubs) - 5-4/2.71/74
SP - Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks) - 6-3/3.13/82
CP - Fransisco Cordero (Brewers) - 0-0/0.36/35 22 Saves
CP - Billy Wagner (Mets) - 0-0/1.65/36 14 Saves
American League
C - Victor Martinez (Indians) - .318/12/52
1B - Mark Teixeira (Rangares) - .302/12/41
2B - B.J. Upton (Devil Rays) - .320/9/31 13 SB
3B - Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) - .301/22/56 6 SB
SS - Derek Jeter (Yankees) - .332/4/31 5 SB
OF - Grady Sizemore (Indians) - .276/10/31 18 SB
OF - Torii Hunter (Twins) - .306/13/48 9 SB
OF - Vladimir Guerrero (Angels) - .348/12/53 1 SB
DH - David Ortiz (Red Sox) - .337/11/42
SP - Dan Haren (Athletics) - 6-2/1.70/70
SP - Josh Beckett (Red Sox) - 9-0/2.87/67
SP - John Lackey (Angels) - 9-4/2.60/67
SP - Johan Santana (Twins) - 6-5/3.30/91
CP - J.J. Putz (Mariners) - 0-0/1.32/27 16 Saves
CP - Al Reyes (Devil Rays) - 1-0/2.02/32 15 Saves
National League
C - Russell Martin (Dodgers) - .302/7/40 9 SB
1B- Prince Fielder (Brewers) - .298/22/49
2B - Chase Utley (Phillies) - .303/11/48 3 SB
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Marlins) - .323/12/43
SS - Jose Reyes (Mets) - .310/2/26 31 SB
OF - Matt Holliday (Rockies) - .355/10/46 3 SB
OF - Carlos Lee (Astros) - .308/11/52 4 SB
OF - Alfonso Soriano (Cubs) - .326/10/21 8 SB
SP - Jake Peavy (Padres) - 7-1/1.97/95
SP - Cole Hamels (Phillies) - 8-2/3.57/96
SP - Rich Hill (Cubs) - 5-4/2.71/74
SP - Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks) - 6-3/3.13/82
CP - Fransisco Cordero (Brewers) - 0-0/0.36/35 22 Saves
CP - Billy Wagner (Mets) - 0-0/1.65/36 14 Saves
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