I've seen a lot of crap go down throughout the years while playing fantasy sports, but never have I felt so wronged as I did last night.
I got home from work last night and logged onto one of my league's site in order to prepare for the draft in which I had the second pick. I had been informed by my buddy that the commish had went and made significant changes in the scoring system. This is the first failure that happened yesterday.
I don't care what kind of league you're in and what kind of wonky scoring system you have, as a commissioner you cannot go and change it one day before the draft, especially without running this by the rest of the league. For instance, I had spent a solid hour or two adjusting my rankings to the original scoring system, which did not have points per reception and did not reward passing touchdowns very much. My buddy had spent a good few hours putting together rankings for the IDP players because the scoring system did not include tackles, which tends to be pretty standard in most leagues with IDP. The commish decided to add tackles, making my buddy's rankings useless. So, by changing the scoring system the night before the draft, the commissioner has made our previous work obsolete and pretty much useles. Furthermore, this only leaves us with 24 hours to come up with new rankings and if I had any sort of event on that night I would have been screwed.
While the changing of the scoring rules can most likely be chalked up to inexperience, mismanagement and lack of organization, the other event that occurred last night cannot be. Several weeks ago the commissioner drew names out of a hat. I was fortunate enough to get the second pick. I prepared for my draft expecting to take Steven Jackson at two (unless LaDanian Tomlinson fell to me) and had actually devised a strategy with how to address my next 5 picks.
Then, THE NIGHT BEFORE THE DRAFT, the commissioner decides to RE-DRAW the draft order. That is completely ludicrous, unjustifiable and bush league. His reasoning was that some of the other owner's questioned the "legitimacy" of the previous draft orders. Yeah.....the owners that had crappy picks questioned the legitimacy of the draft order....because these guys don't have anything to gain from changing the draft order.
I've played in a lot of leagues that had rules that I didn't necessarily like but I accepted those rules and built my teams with knowledge of the rules. However, NEVER EVER has anything as bad as this ever taken place. To post an official draft order and then renege on it and come up with a new one? That, my friends, is bush league all the way. Considering that I was to actually pay money to compete I decided to exercise my only option and threaten to quit the league if the draft order changed in any way shape or form from the original draft order. There was no league vote and nobody even consulted with me to get my opinion before this went down. When I was told that the draft order was changing I promptly withdrew my team as that was the only option I had left.
I could really care less that I left them short-handed on such short notice but if crap like that is allowed to go down in a league, its clearly a league I want no part in. It was pretty bush league.....at best.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Sunday, August 26, 2007
When Things Go Right!
Today we held one of the three football drafts that I actually care about, in which I'm a expansion team in an established keeper league (the others being an ESPN money leauge and another keeper league that is starting up this year). Coming into the season I didn't have high expectations due to the structure of doling out expansion picks (all expansion teams got a bunch of draft picks AFTER everyone declared all their keepers, which was the same number of keepers in years past). However, I was able to turn those picks into a rather serviceable roster coming into the draft, trading for the following players:
QB - Matt Leinart
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew
RB - Ronnie Brown
WR - Lee Evans
TE - Heath Miller
My first pick in the draft was the 17th pick, followed by the 41st, so I didn't have much expectations for the quality of players I'd get. I was hoping to land a LenDale White type back at 17 and maybe an okay receiver at 41. After that I was planning on drafting high upside players that might develop into something for next season, when we expand the number of keepers (which is currently set as the starting line-up, no bench....next year we're adding bench players).
The draft started off with a very poor decision on behalf of the team with the first pick. They decided to trade the 1st overall pick (ie. Adrian Peterson/Marshawn Lynch/Calvin Johnson) AND Marques Colston for the 3rd and 6th overall picks. Normally when you trade down you're supposed to PICK UP talent instead of give it up (Colston). To make matters worse, he used the 3rd pick on Calvin Johnson (who I think he would have taken at 1) and at 6 he took......the Bills defense?????? Wow.
And it was picks like the Bills defense at 6 that led to the shocking availability of Julius Jones at 17. I was pretty excited about landing a solid running back here. Ecstatic, actually. And this was after I almost traded Matt Leinart to move up and take DeAngelo Williams. At the time that seemed like a good idea, but I'm glad the other team decided not to pull the trigger.
As the draft moved along, the guy beside me owned 3 of the next 4 picks and he mumbled something about wanting a back-up TE. There were 3 players that were surprisingly still on the board that I really wanted so I offered him up Heath Miller and my 41st pick for the 34th and 37th picks. Since I was at my roster limit for RB's, I took WR Mark Clayton (it was between him and Chris Chambers) at 34 and then at 37 I took my back-up QB, Jason Campbell. I was going to take a TE next at 57 since I traded my only one except Chris Chambers, who I had ranked as a Tier 1 WR of the available talent pool coming into this draft, was still on the board so I took the best player instead of the biggest need.
I then watched with an agonizing pain as teams drafted before my next pick at 66. My top TE was still on the board and eventually Tony Scheffler slipped to me at 66. I then took my top ranked available defense coming into the draft at 89 when I grabbed the Washington Redskins. Due to roster requirements I had to take a back-up TE (Visanthe Shiancoe), a back-up defense (New York Jets) and two kickers (Ryan Longwell and Billy Cundiff) to round out the draft. I like all those guys as late round roster fill-ins, especially my kickers, which both play indoors. So, after its all said and done, my final roster looks like this:
QB - Matt Leinart
QB - Jason Campbell
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew
RB - Ronnie Brown
RB - Julius Jones
WR - Lee Evans
WR - Mark Clayton
WR - Chris Chambers
TE - Tony Scheffler
TE - Visanthe Shiancoe
D/ST - Washington Redskins
D/ST - New York Jets
K - Ryan Longwell
K - Billy Cundiff
Not a championship team but it might get me to the playoffs and at that point anything can happen. I also like the future potential of this team, especially at RB and QB. I ended up ecstatic with how well this team looks considering my low expectations for the roster (which should have been deserved, had it not been for some weird picks by other teams).
Next up is my keeper draft on Tuesday and I'll be sure to post the results here. I have the second overall pick and am going Steven Jackson unless Tomlinson gets passed by for some reason.
Friday, August 17, 2007
A Money League Draft!
Through somehow (I think its because ESPN botched fantasy baseball at the start and this was part of their way of saying sorry) I was given one free fantasy football team eligible to join a prize eligible league on ESPN. The other night I thought that I was sufficiently prepared to do the live online draft and decided to give it a whirl. Lucky for me, I won the first pick overall, so I should have a pretty legit chance at winning the league.
Here are my picks along with a brief synopsis:
1.) LaDainian Tomlinson (RB) - Owning LT2 the last several years is comparable to owning Gretzky in fantasy hockey during his prime. LT2 is going first overall in any league in which an idiot doesn't have the first pick.
2.) Brandon Jacobs (RB) - This draft was VERY RB heavy at the top (as it should be) and Jacobs was the best back left on the board. People berated me for taking a "back-up" (which Jacobs is not) this early, despite the fact the only other RBs I really had to choose from were Edgerrin James or Deuce McAllister.
3.) Chad Johnson (WR) - With Manning and Palmer already off the board, I took the best WR available to me.
4.) Roy Williams (WR) - I have Williams as a top 5 receiver this year and was very pleased to take him with the last pick in the 4th round.
5.) Cadillac Williams (RB) - Hoping for a bounce back season out of Cadillac. Like his potential upside for my flex spot.
6.) Jerious Norwood (RB) - Warrick Dunn is old, small and recovering from back surgery. Expect Norwood to emerge as the go-to option in a run heavy Falcons offense (because as if they'd let Joey Harrington air it out!).
7.) Adrian Peterson (RB) - Could gamble on a monster rookie season from Peterson with the quantity of solid backs already on my roster.
8.) Tony Romo (QB) - Was REALLY hoping to go Kitna-Branch with my back-to-back picks in 8 and 9 but both went a few picks ahead of me. Decided to settle on Romo at QB since he has so many weapons on offense.
9.) Laveraneus Coles (WR) - While I wouldn't want to rely on Coles as a starter (injury concerns), he should make a decent bye week option and emergency fill in.
10.) Chris Chambers (WR) - Chambers still has big time potential and I couldn't pass on adding so much depth to my receiving corps.
11.) Jake Delhomme (QB) - I like Delhomme if Smith stays healthy. He also gives me a decent option to consider when Romo has a tough match-up or bye.
12.) Mark Clayton (WR) - Another wide receiver that slipped that I couldn't pass up on. Picked after such receivers as Matt Jones, Mike Furrey, Isaac Bruce and DJ Hackett.
13.) Tony Scheffler (TE) - I hadn't planned on grabbing a TE yet but for whatever reason this draft was going TE crazy. 6 teams had back-up TEs drafted by this point. 6! In a 10 team league!!! I acted quick and grabbed the last serviceable TE I had on my draft board before I was left with Visanthe Shiancoe.
14.) LenDale White (RB) - The Scheffler pick cost me Tatum Bell, who I was drooling over at this point. Unfortunately he went a few picks before me and I settled on Keith Tkachuk of running backs (what..with the showing up at training camp fat and out of shape all the time).
15.) Dolphins D/ST - Forced to take a defense and kicker, I settled on a Miami defense that should be okay.
16.) Jason Hanson (K) - On a high powered offense and in a dome. Not bad for the last kicker drafted.
In a humourous moment, one owner declared his genius loudly and boldly with "The Sleeper Pick of The Draft!" and then proceeded to take Priest Holmes, who isn't even going to play football again. This was followed up two picks later with someone trying to outdo the other guy with "No, THIS is the Sleeper Pick of the Draft!" and proceeded to select Duante Culpepper, who, even if healthy, still plays for the Oakland Raiders. The next pick was Brandon Marshall and I quietly thought about how ironic that the true sleeper pick of the draft was made with absolutely no fanfare.
Here are my picks along with a brief synopsis:
1.) LaDainian Tomlinson (RB) - Owning LT2 the last several years is comparable to owning Gretzky in fantasy hockey during his prime. LT2 is going first overall in any league in which an idiot doesn't have the first pick.
2.) Brandon Jacobs (RB) - This draft was VERY RB heavy at the top (as it should be) and Jacobs was the best back left on the board. People berated me for taking a "back-up" (which Jacobs is not) this early, despite the fact the only other RBs I really had to choose from were Edgerrin James or Deuce McAllister.
3.) Chad Johnson (WR) - With Manning and Palmer already off the board, I took the best WR available to me.
4.) Roy Williams (WR) - I have Williams as a top 5 receiver this year and was very pleased to take him with the last pick in the 4th round.
5.) Cadillac Williams (RB) - Hoping for a bounce back season out of Cadillac. Like his potential upside for my flex spot.
6.) Jerious Norwood (RB) - Warrick Dunn is old, small and recovering from back surgery. Expect Norwood to emerge as the go-to option in a run heavy Falcons offense (because as if they'd let Joey Harrington air it out!).
7.) Adrian Peterson (RB) - Could gamble on a monster rookie season from Peterson with the quantity of solid backs already on my roster.
8.) Tony Romo (QB) - Was REALLY hoping to go Kitna-Branch with my back-to-back picks in 8 and 9 but both went a few picks ahead of me. Decided to settle on Romo at QB since he has so many weapons on offense.
9.) Laveraneus Coles (WR) - While I wouldn't want to rely on Coles as a starter (injury concerns), he should make a decent bye week option and emergency fill in.
10.) Chris Chambers (WR) - Chambers still has big time potential and I couldn't pass on adding so much depth to my receiving corps.
11.) Jake Delhomme (QB) - I like Delhomme if Smith stays healthy. He also gives me a decent option to consider when Romo has a tough match-up or bye.
12.) Mark Clayton (WR) - Another wide receiver that slipped that I couldn't pass up on. Picked after such receivers as Matt Jones, Mike Furrey, Isaac Bruce and DJ Hackett.
13.) Tony Scheffler (TE) - I hadn't planned on grabbing a TE yet but for whatever reason this draft was going TE crazy. 6 teams had back-up TEs drafted by this point. 6! In a 10 team league!!! I acted quick and grabbed the last serviceable TE I had on my draft board before I was left with Visanthe Shiancoe.
14.) LenDale White (RB) - The Scheffler pick cost me Tatum Bell, who I was drooling over at this point. Unfortunately he went a few picks before me and I settled on Keith Tkachuk of running backs (what..with the showing up at training camp fat and out of shape all the time).
15.) Dolphins D/ST - Forced to take a defense and kicker, I settled on a Miami defense that should be okay.
16.) Jason Hanson (K) - On a high powered offense and in a dome. Not bad for the last kicker drafted.
In a humourous moment, one owner declared his genius loudly and boldly with "The Sleeper Pick of The Draft!" and then proceeded to take Priest Holmes, who isn't even going to play football again. This was followed up two picks later with someone trying to outdo the other guy with "No, THIS is the Sleeper Pick of the Draft!" and proceeded to select Duante Culpepper, who, even if healthy, still plays for the Oakland Raiders. The next pick was Brandon Marshall and I quietly thought about how ironic that the true sleeper pick of the draft was made with absolutely no fanfare.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
BHu's Fantasy Hockey Preview
For both baseball and football I have completed an in depth look at each position and given my fantasy rankings according to my tiering system. I have also added input on how to best approach and prepare for drafts based on both average draft position as well as my experiences participating in a number of drafts for both sports.
I will NOT be doing the same for hockey. I focus most of my fantasy sports efforts into hockey, and thus my rankings for hockey are much better than for the other sports. But I also participate in 2 uber competitive leagues against friends and I can in no way, shape or form divulge my trade secrets and jeopardize the integrity of my fantasy efforts.
I will only say this: in the keeper league we're starting up, I've won the rights to the first pick and am not considering anybody other than Sidney Crosby with this pick.
Any little scrap of info can only help my competition, which is also being VERY secretive. I can't even find out who Bowler is picking at number three and we always talk in depth fantasy hockey strategy.
If you're lucky, I MIGHT post my rankings after both of my important drafts have taken place.
I will NOT be doing the same for hockey. I focus most of my fantasy sports efforts into hockey, and thus my rankings for hockey are much better than for the other sports. But I also participate in 2 uber competitive leagues against friends and I can in no way, shape or form divulge my trade secrets and jeopardize the integrity of my fantasy efforts.
I will only say this: in the keeper league we're starting up, I've won the rights to the first pick and am not considering anybody other than Sidney Crosby with this pick.
Any little scrap of info can only help my competition, which is also being VERY secretive. I can't even find out who Bowler is picking at number three and we always talk in depth fantasy hockey strategy.
If you're lucky, I MIGHT post my rankings after both of my important drafts have taken place.
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Seriously...Why Am I Not a GM?
I realize that professional sports isn't exactly a shining beacon that attracts the most intellectually minded people, but you'd think that there would at least be some level of common sense. Now, poor decisions are always going to be made in sports, where passion and favoritism always rule over logic and good business practices, but there have been two recent baseball transactions that defy any sort of explanation.
1.) The Pittsburgh Pirates trade some guy (doesn't matter who...could've been my grandma for all I care) to San Fransisco Giants for Matt Morris and his entire contract - When Matt Morris signed his contract with the Giants, the more intelligent baseball fans out there immediately saw this is a unnecessarily risky deal. The money is in and around the $9 million a year range for a one time decent pitcher (ie. pitched in some all star games) coming off the kind of surgery that causes most pitchers to decline. And decline Morris did this year. While his ERA and win totals don't look horrible, his peripheral stats (the ones that measure true performance value) are very scary. Now, if the Yankees or someone were looking for a fifth starter for the stretch run, sure, this sort of trade would make sense. But the Pirates?
Let's see...first off they are a small market team with limited financial resources. The last thing they need to be doing is tying up their budget with an overpaid, aging, declining pitcher. Second, they are nowhere near close to make any sort of playoff push so they don't need his veteran presence and moxie (if you believe in such a thing). Finally, and probably worst of all, this takes the ball out of the hands of some of the Pirates talented young pitchers. Guys like Snell, Gorzelanny, Duke, Maholm and Van Benschoten all have fairly high upsides and are all ready for the show (except may Van Benschoten). So why bring in a guy that is overpaid and sucks just to push these youngsters to the bullpen or triple A? It just doesn't make sense, yet it provides pretty clear evidence as to why the Pirates are forever a last place team: their organization doesn't get it!
This trade just makes no sense. It's like a young guy that has a great wife, just graduated from med school with his Ph. D and he's sitting in a room when a stranger walks up to him and offers some heroin. The guy sits there for a moment, thinking about it, and then decides "Yeah...YEAH...I could really go for some heroin right about now. Heroin is exactly the thing that will not cause any problems to my potentially bright future."
2.) The Arizona Diamondbacks sign Eric Byrnes to a 3 year, $30 million deal - First off, Eric Byrnes is NOT a $10 million a year player. He is a league average player that has his value inflated by the media and fans because he is a fan favorite. And past attendance records prove one thing: people like winners more than they like fan favorites.
More importantly, though, is the fact that the Diamondbacks are now blocking some of their top young players in order to overpay an average outfielder with no upside for the next three years. Firmly entrenched in center field is Chris Young, who is looking more and more like an improved version of Mike Cameron (that's a good thing). Just joining the D-Backs is Justin Upton (BJ's more talented, younger brother) that is getting compared to Ken Griffey Jr. an awful lot. Arizona also has Carlos Quentin, a solid outfield that projects to be at least as good as Byrnes, but with a lot more potential. This deal does make more sense than the Pirates trading for Matt Morris because at least the Diamondbacks have the talent to compete next year, but still....why overpay a replaceable player that blocks the development of your top prospects? Furthermore, why not let Byrnes hit the free agent market? I can't see another team offering him that sort of money and if they do, so what! Let someone else pay for his declining skill set.
1.) The Pittsburgh Pirates trade some guy (doesn't matter who...could've been my grandma for all I care) to San Fransisco Giants for Matt Morris and his entire contract - When Matt Morris signed his contract with the Giants, the more intelligent baseball fans out there immediately saw this is a unnecessarily risky deal. The money is in and around the $9 million a year range for a one time decent pitcher (ie. pitched in some all star games) coming off the kind of surgery that causes most pitchers to decline. And decline Morris did this year. While his ERA and win totals don't look horrible, his peripheral stats (the ones that measure true performance value) are very scary. Now, if the Yankees or someone were looking for a fifth starter for the stretch run, sure, this sort of trade would make sense. But the Pirates?
Let's see...first off they are a small market team with limited financial resources. The last thing they need to be doing is tying up their budget with an overpaid, aging, declining pitcher. Second, they are nowhere near close to make any sort of playoff push so they don't need his veteran presence and moxie (if you believe in such a thing). Finally, and probably worst of all, this takes the ball out of the hands of some of the Pirates talented young pitchers. Guys like Snell, Gorzelanny, Duke, Maholm and Van Benschoten all have fairly high upsides and are all ready for the show (except may Van Benschoten). So why bring in a guy that is overpaid and sucks just to push these youngsters to the bullpen or triple A? It just doesn't make sense, yet it provides pretty clear evidence as to why the Pirates are forever a last place team: their organization doesn't get it!
This trade just makes no sense. It's like a young guy that has a great wife, just graduated from med school with his Ph. D and he's sitting in a room when a stranger walks up to him and offers some heroin. The guy sits there for a moment, thinking about it, and then decides "Yeah...YEAH...I could really go for some heroin right about now. Heroin is exactly the thing that will not cause any problems to my potentially bright future."
2.) The Arizona Diamondbacks sign Eric Byrnes to a 3 year, $30 million deal - First off, Eric Byrnes is NOT a $10 million a year player. He is a league average player that has his value inflated by the media and fans because he is a fan favorite. And past attendance records prove one thing: people like winners more than they like fan favorites.
More importantly, though, is the fact that the Diamondbacks are now blocking some of their top young players in order to overpay an average outfielder with no upside for the next three years. Firmly entrenched in center field is Chris Young, who is looking more and more like an improved version of Mike Cameron (that's a good thing). Just joining the D-Backs is Justin Upton (BJ's more talented, younger brother) that is getting compared to Ken Griffey Jr. an awful lot. Arizona also has Carlos Quentin, a solid outfield that projects to be at least as good as Byrnes, but with a lot more potential. This deal does make more sense than the Pirates trading for Matt Morris because at least the Diamondbacks have the talent to compete next year, but still....why overpay a replaceable player that blocks the development of your top prospects? Furthermore, why not let Byrnes hit the free agent market? I can't see another team offering him that sort of money and if they do, so what! Let someone else pay for his declining skill set.
Monday, August 6, 2007
Bring Forth The Sleepers!
Everybody always wants to know the sleepers. I think its because everybody wants to pick up that 4th round out of some small school, watch him explode and then spout off about how brilliant he was for making that pick, when, in reality, it was mostly luck. The same person often fails to mention how those risky picks he made in the 6th and 7th rounds blew up in his face.
I don't listen too much to pre-season sleeper talk. Once a player is mentioned as a sleeper in more than a few publications, I tend to stay away. Once a player is labelled a sleeper his draft position grows a lot higher than his potential ceiling ever was. So my sleepers are a bit different than most. They're not undrafted rookies out of St. Vincent's Southern Christian Academy in Division III. They are players you are probably quite familiar with. They are players that seem to be vastly underrated coming into this season. Hell, I've seen some of these guys on the busts lists of some publications.
What I'm NOT suggesting is that you reach for these players. I'm merely suggesting to keep them in mind if you miss out on some coveted players at these positions earlier. I'm just saying that if Peyton Manning slips to the middle of the second round and you're trying to decide between Manning and Ronnie Brown, take Manning because Brandon Jacobs is likely available in the third.
Quarterbacks
Eli Manning - I'm not saying Eli Manning is a great QB. He makes a lot of mistakes at bad times that costs his team games. That kind of thing is coach-able, though. Wants not coach-able is his tremendous arm strength and ability to air the ball out. Manning will put up yardage and TDs. As long as your league doesn't penalize you too much for INTs, Manning should be a fringe starting fantasy QB this year, with the potential!
Jason Campbell - Campbell seems to be grasping Al Saunders offence now. Need I remind you Saunders is responsible for making QBs like Trent Green a fantasy force? Campbell also has some excellent weapons to throw to (Moss, Randle El, Lloyd, Cooley, Betts, Portis, SELLERS). He should be at least as valuable as guys like Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, etc. this year.
Byron Leftwich - Leftwich should be healthy this year and should make a serviceable QB2 with a bit of upside. It's hard to draft him, though, knowing his receiving corps is among the weakest in the league.
Running Back
Brandon Jacobs - A year and a half ago, Jacobs was the trendy must have running back. He was supposed to take over for Tiki Barber and be a stud. He's done nothing since then to change that, though everybody seems to have soured on him a bit. This guy will provide similar value to guys like Ronnie Brown and Willie Parker but an entire two to three rounds later.
Cedric Benson - Nobody has faith in this guy except, I presume, the Bears. Benson is THE guy on a team that has to run the ball to be effective. The Bears traded Thomas Jones to open a spot for Benson and even the most ineffective RB can rush for 1000 yards if you give him enough touches.
Tatum Bell - Bell is a very talented back; do not question his talent. The problem in Denver was fumbling, which did not go over well with Mike Shanahan. Bell is in Detroit now, playing the position that Mike Martz so effectively used Marshall Faulk in. It also looks more and more like Kevin Jones is going to miss a large chunk of the season, if not all of it. Remember one thing....Jones isn't so talented that Bell can't keep Jones on the bench when Jones does return.
Julius Jones - Jones has been slipping DEEP into drafts, well behind Marion Barber III. Here's the thing...he's still the starting running back on a good offense. I'm not saying you need to draft him in the first 5 rounds but he makes a nice option for teams looking for depth at running back in the mid rounds.
Tony Hunt - Brian Westbrook owners listen up: draft Tony Hunt. If someone else picks him up, you're going to be sorry. Westbrook will get injured for some of this season and Hunt will post good numbers as his replacement.
Wide Receiver
Deion Branch - Branch will post WR2 numbers at worst this year (barring injury) but is being drafted as more of a WR3. The perfect reason to pick a third RB instead of addressing WR too early.
Santana Moss - Moss has huge playmaking ability. He just didn't have someone that could throw the ball to him for most of last year. Enter the strong armed Jason Campbell.
Jerry Porter - Looking more and more like the starter in Oakland. Yeah, it's Oakland, but Porter has plenty of explosiveness and is going UNDRAFTED in many leagues. And excellent depth receiver that should post WR2/3 numbers.
Troy Williamson - Somebody has to catch the ball in Minny. Not the most ringing endoresment. Williamson has the physical gifts to be a solid NFL receiver, he just needs some consistency. He's also of that age where receivers tend to make the next step, so there are worse guys to take a flyer on.
Tight End
Tight end is so deep this year that there is really nobody to label as a "sleeper" unless you're playing in some masochistic, ultra deep league that starts two tight ends. If that's the case:
Eric Johnson - Was a solid pass catcher at one time in San Fran. Now playing with Drew Brees.
Tony Scheffler - Good pass catcher. Liked him better before Denver signed Daniel Graham.
Visanthe Shiancoe - Minny paid him A LOT of money, so I assume they will try and get him the ball as much as possible.
Friday, August 3, 2007
Anatomy of a First Place Team
Of my many fantasy baseball teams this year, the one that is doing the best is also the most surprising one. It's surprising in that when I look at the roster, I wonder how come I'm in first, let alone in first with such a commanding lead. So I've decided to take a look. (Note that its a standard rotisserie team).
My roster consists of the following:
C - Russell Martin - .299/12 HR/18 SB/59 runs/68 RBI
1B - Ryan Howard - .271/29 HR/0 SB/59 runs/ 88 RBI
2B - Brian Roberts - .317/9 HR/32 SB/72 runs/41 RBI
3B - Eric Chavez - .240/15 HR/4 SB/43 runs/46 RBI
SS - Hanley Ramirez - .338/17 HR/31 SB/81 runs/50 RBI
OF - Jason Bay - .263/16 HR/3 SB/55 runs/69 RBI
OF - Corey Hart - .283/18 HR/16 SB/57 runs/48 RBI
OF - Jermaine Dye - .238/21 HR/2 SB/52 runs/56 RBI
DH - David Ortiz - .320/18 HR/1 SB/70 runs/65 RBI
Bench
OF - Shane Victorino - .284/11 HR/32 SB/72 runs/42 RBI
SS - Troy Tulowitzki - .272/12 HR/5 SB/59 runs/47 RBI
My offence is being carried by Russell Martin, Ryan Howard, Brian Roberts, Hanley Ramirez and David Ortiz. They've provided me with an excellent blend of speed and power. All of my guys play either at the top of their line-ups (Ramirez, Roberts, Hart, Martin) which provide alot of runs or else in prime RBI spots (Howard, Ortiz, Dye, Bay). I've been able to complement my star players with the likes of Corey Hart and Shane Victorino (currently injured), to provide solid production. My 3B slot has been a rotation that is now probably going to use Alex Gordon with Chavez going on the DL. I've been lucky, too. I picked up Hart early in the season to replace the injured Dave Roberts in the outfield. When Hanley Ramirez was injured earlier, I picked up Troy Tulowitzki just as he went on a hot tear. And now, with the injury to Victorino, I picked up Dye and he's been on fire. This is a ridiculously balanced offence that only has a bit of a weak spot at third but I've managed to play that position effectively off the wire.
My rotation looks like:
Erik Bedard - 3.05/11 W/181 K/1.09 WHIP
Cole Hamels - 3.50/12 W/143 K/1.15 WHIP
Tim Lincecum - 3.75/ 6 W/105 K/1.19 WHIP
Javier Vazquez - 3.63/8 W/132 K/1.09 WHIP
Matt Cain - 4.02/3 W/96 K/1.40 WHIP
Jered Weaver - 4.00/7 W/71 K/1.47 WHIP
Billy Wagner - 1.36/1 W/57 K/0.86 WHIP/25 saves
Jonathan Papelbon - 2.09/0 W/56 K/0.88 WHIP/24 saves
Takashi Saito - 1.51/1 W/48K/0.72 WHIP/27 saves
DL - Rich Harden
My rotation looks unspectacular at first, especially coming into the season. However, Bedard/Hamels/Vazquez were three pitchers I was targeting at the start of the year in drafts. They are high strikeout pitchers that had great peripherals (good WHIP), which is usually a far better indication of a pitchers talent over ERA and wins, which are more team dependent. Bedard has really taken the next step, leading the majors in strikeouts by quite a bit. Hamels has done what I expected and Vazquez is quietly putting together a fantastic season. The thing about this rotation is I don't really have any WHIP killers pitching for me. Cain and Weaver have high WHIPs right now, but I've only been spot starting them against the most favorable of match-ups. Lincecum was a must add the moment he was called up and, despite the occasional rough start, he has not disappointed. I've also gotten excellent production from my three closers. All have been lights out (even adding a bunch of strike outs!) and have allowed me to avoid patching together some closers that would negatively affect my ERA and WHIP.
The thing to learn from this team is that in roto baseball, the key is to have a flexible, diverse and balanced line-up without players that kill you in average, ERA or WHIP. I have my elite studs in Howard/Ramirez/Ortiz and Bedard/Wagner/Papelbon/Saito and have filled in the rest with useful players that, as a whole, contribute to all categories. I think far too often people focus on the big run producers at each position or big name pitchers that rack up wins and undervalue players like Corey Hart, Shane Victorino, and Javier Vazquez. However, players like these are all EXTREMELY useful, as my team's success shows.
My roster consists of the following:
C - Russell Martin - .299/12 HR/18 SB/59 runs/68 RBI
1B - Ryan Howard - .271/29 HR/0 SB/59 runs/ 88 RBI
2B - Brian Roberts - .317/9 HR/32 SB/72 runs/41 RBI
3B - Eric Chavez - .240/15 HR/4 SB/43 runs/46 RBI
SS - Hanley Ramirez - .338/17 HR/31 SB/81 runs/50 RBI
OF - Jason Bay - .263/16 HR/3 SB/55 runs/69 RBI
OF - Corey Hart - .283/18 HR/16 SB/57 runs/48 RBI
OF - Jermaine Dye - .238/21 HR/2 SB/52 runs/56 RBI
DH - David Ortiz - .320/18 HR/1 SB/70 runs/65 RBI
Bench
OF - Shane Victorino - .284/11 HR/32 SB/72 runs/42 RBI
SS - Troy Tulowitzki - .272/12 HR/5 SB/59 runs/47 RBI
My offence is being carried by Russell Martin, Ryan Howard, Brian Roberts, Hanley Ramirez and David Ortiz. They've provided me with an excellent blend of speed and power. All of my guys play either at the top of their line-ups (Ramirez, Roberts, Hart, Martin) which provide alot of runs or else in prime RBI spots (Howard, Ortiz, Dye, Bay). I've been able to complement my star players with the likes of Corey Hart and Shane Victorino (currently injured), to provide solid production. My 3B slot has been a rotation that is now probably going to use Alex Gordon with Chavez going on the DL. I've been lucky, too. I picked up Hart early in the season to replace the injured Dave Roberts in the outfield. When Hanley Ramirez was injured earlier, I picked up Troy Tulowitzki just as he went on a hot tear. And now, with the injury to Victorino, I picked up Dye and he's been on fire. This is a ridiculously balanced offence that only has a bit of a weak spot at third but I've managed to play that position effectively off the wire.
My rotation looks like:
Erik Bedard - 3.05/11 W/181 K/1.09 WHIP
Cole Hamels - 3.50/12 W/143 K/1.15 WHIP
Tim Lincecum - 3.75/ 6 W/105 K/1.19 WHIP
Javier Vazquez - 3.63/8 W/132 K/1.09 WHIP
Matt Cain - 4.02/3 W/96 K/1.40 WHIP
Jered Weaver - 4.00/7 W/71 K/1.47 WHIP
Billy Wagner - 1.36/1 W/57 K/0.86 WHIP/25 saves
Jonathan Papelbon - 2.09/0 W/56 K/0.88 WHIP/24 saves
Takashi Saito - 1.51/1 W/48K/0.72 WHIP/27 saves
DL - Rich Harden
My rotation looks unspectacular at first, especially coming into the season. However, Bedard/Hamels/Vazquez were three pitchers I was targeting at the start of the year in drafts. They are high strikeout pitchers that had great peripherals (good WHIP), which is usually a far better indication of a pitchers talent over ERA and wins, which are more team dependent. Bedard has really taken the next step, leading the majors in strikeouts by quite a bit. Hamels has done what I expected and Vazquez is quietly putting together a fantastic season. The thing about this rotation is I don't really have any WHIP killers pitching for me. Cain and Weaver have high WHIPs right now, but I've only been spot starting them against the most favorable of match-ups. Lincecum was a must add the moment he was called up and, despite the occasional rough start, he has not disappointed. I've also gotten excellent production from my three closers. All have been lights out (even adding a bunch of strike outs!) and have allowed me to avoid patching together some closers that would negatively affect my ERA and WHIP.
The thing to learn from this team is that in roto baseball, the key is to have a flexible, diverse and balanced line-up without players that kill you in average, ERA or WHIP. I have my elite studs in Howard/Ramirez/Ortiz and Bedard/Wagner/Papelbon/Saito and have filled in the rest with useful players that, as a whole, contribute to all categories. I think far too often people focus on the big run producers at each position or big name pitchers that rack up wins and undervalue players like Corey Hart, Shane Victorino, and Javier Vazquez. However, players like these are all EXTREMELY useful, as my team's success shows.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Kevin Lowe: Official Moron
We here at Visions of Joe Thornton strongly believe that a team's GM is highly responsible for the sustained success of any sports franchise. It is why we hold someone like Billy Beane in such high regard. Sure, he hasn't won the big one yet but nearly every year he puts his team in a position to have a shot, even when it seems the deck is stacked against him more than ever. It's also why we consider Dave Littlefield one of the worst GM's in baseball. His latest trade for Matt Morris was inexcusable, especially considering Littlefield is now on the hook for the $14.5 million owed Morris over the next year and a half. He gave Brian Sabean a get out of jail free card for one of the worst free agent signings at the time.
So where does Kevin Lowe fit in amongst all of this? Well, clearly he fits into the Dave Littlefield mold. I used to give Lowe the benefit of the doubt but with this off season I can no longer do that. Lowe simply does not have the patience or foresight to see how his decisions affect the long term prospects of the Oilers franchise. It all started with the Dwayne Roloson trade (probably before that but this is when I first started questioning the guy). He traded a first rounder and change for an aging, soon to be free agent, platoon goalie. It looked horrible at the time but Roloson did play lights out and helped carry the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Finals that year. If you make a mortgaging the future and end up with a shot like that, it's probably worth it.
Then came the Pronger fiasco. Sure, Pronger forced Lowe's hand somewhat, but Lowe also had the right to refuse to give in to Pronger's demands. It's hard to believe Lowe couldn't have got more for a top five defenceman signed to a very reasonable contract at the tail end of the prime of his career from somebody else. It wasn't Joe Thornton bad, obviously, but it was still a pretty weak return. And instead of investing the money saved by dealing Pronger, Lowe stood pat with a very weak defensive corps going into the season. Lowe also made the fatal mistake of overpaying Fernando Pisani because of a good two week stretch in the playoffs last year.
During last season, Lowe and the Oilers became increasingly frustrated with the play of Marc-Andre Bergeron. Lowe then made the egregious error of selling low on a talented young player, shipping Bergeron to the Islanders for a sort-of prospect that might spend his career in Europe. Bergeron found his groove in New York and played very well down the stretch last year. The Ryan Smyth trade was excusable....if Lowe wasn't going to resign him he had to trade him for something. The Oilers weren't making the playoffs, so keeping Smyth for the stretch accomplished nothing. Sure, the trade sent the Oilers into a downward spiral but I don't think the absence of Smyth's leadership was to blame (as the media played it out to be). Instead, it was more than likely due to a significant lack of talent. Look at the roster...it's not good.
This offseason has been one step forward, three steps back for Lowe and the Oilers. First off, they decided their main problem last year was a lack of offensive prowess on the blue line. So they decided to ship out any defenceman that knew how to play defence and brought in six players that, while offensively gifted, are quite irresponsible in their own end. I'm sure the near 40 year old Roloson is going to enjoy all the prime scoring opportunities from the opposition!
Lowe failed to address the real problems: consistent play in their own end from the defence and some forwards that can consistently find the back of the net. The forwards could have been partially addressed in house: Lupul had a down season but is still very young and very talented. Hemsky just needs a good sniper to pass to. Robbie Schremp is waiting in the wings (along with Robert Nilsson) and if the Oilers are so unconcerned about the lack of defensive play from their defense corps, why are they so concerned about Schremp and Nilsson's defensive shortcomings?
So what do the Oilers do? They panic. They flip one of their talented forwards (Lupul) along with their best defensive d-man (by far) in Jason Smith for the offensive minded d-man Joni Pitkanen and Geoff Sanderson (who has a fork protruding from his back). They brought back Dick Tarnstrom who can't play in his own end to save his life.
The one smart move they made was signing Thomas Vanek to a huge offer sheet. Vanek is an elite goal scorer that would have made a huge impact playing with Hemsky on the top line. Not only would Vanek have proven to be worth the money, he'd also be worth the first, second and third picks. Buffalo, of course did the right thing in matching the offer.
Apparently Lowe is flush with cash this summer and instead of recognizing that there is nobody on the market worth the money (and therefore saving his resources for next year instead of way overspending), Lowe decided all this money was burning a hole in his pocket. So he decided to send out another offer sheet to a restricted free agent. But instead of getting one to Zach Parise in New Jersey, a very talented young pivot that can play at both ends of the ice and potted 30 goals last year, he decided to go after Dustin Penner. Now, I like Penner, but the guy has had one decent NHL season after going undrafted out of college and getting cut by the Winkler Flyers of all teams. Three times! There's no denying he has talent and some potential. But there is no way he is worth that money. Some people want to look at it as a future investment (overpay now so he'll be getting underpaid at the end of the deal) but what happens if Penner has a Lupulesque season in Edmonton next year? The same things being said about Penner this year were being said about Lupul last year. Would the Oilers sour on Penner right away, too?
Further compounding the Oilers problem is the fact they give up the first, second and third round picks in the draft. This is not something to sneeze at. Those picks are extremely valuable and one good draft can really set up an organization with top end talent and good depth for years to come. It's the principle that Billy Beane goes by. And there is NO way Penner is worth all those picks.
So what did Kevin Lowe do this offseason? He limited the financial flexibility of a small town team for the next five years. He mortgaged a lot of long term assets to take a flyer on a still very raw and developing player. He turned his team from a punchless offence with poor defence to a team that has a punchless offence with horrible defence. And he pissed off a bunch of GMs while also significantly driving up the price of young players (which, you know, is something a small market team should not be doing at all because, if you look at the Billy Beane model, cheap, decent young players are the players his franchise model revolves around).
If there is a lesson to be learned by NHL franchises (and all sports in general) is that the higher ups should never make a GM feel pressured into having a winning season during any given season (unless they are a huge market team with nearly endless resources like the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.). What happens is that GM starts making panic moves and mortgaging the future just to win a few more games next year. One step forward.....three steps back.
So where does Kevin Lowe fit in amongst all of this? Well, clearly he fits into the Dave Littlefield mold. I used to give Lowe the benefit of the doubt but with this off season I can no longer do that. Lowe simply does not have the patience or foresight to see how his decisions affect the long term prospects of the Oilers franchise. It all started with the Dwayne Roloson trade (probably before that but this is when I first started questioning the guy). He traded a first rounder and change for an aging, soon to be free agent, platoon goalie. It looked horrible at the time but Roloson did play lights out and helped carry the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Finals that year. If you make a mortgaging the future and end up with a shot like that, it's probably worth it.
Then came the Pronger fiasco. Sure, Pronger forced Lowe's hand somewhat, but Lowe also had the right to refuse to give in to Pronger's demands. It's hard to believe Lowe couldn't have got more for a top five defenceman signed to a very reasonable contract at the tail end of the prime of his career from somebody else. It wasn't Joe Thornton bad, obviously, but it was still a pretty weak return. And instead of investing the money saved by dealing Pronger, Lowe stood pat with a very weak defensive corps going into the season. Lowe also made the fatal mistake of overpaying Fernando Pisani because of a good two week stretch in the playoffs last year.
During last season, Lowe and the Oilers became increasingly frustrated with the play of Marc-Andre Bergeron. Lowe then made the egregious error of selling low on a talented young player, shipping Bergeron to the Islanders for a sort-of prospect that might spend his career in Europe. Bergeron found his groove in New York and played very well down the stretch last year. The Ryan Smyth trade was excusable....if Lowe wasn't going to resign him he had to trade him for something. The Oilers weren't making the playoffs, so keeping Smyth for the stretch accomplished nothing. Sure, the trade sent the Oilers into a downward spiral but I don't think the absence of Smyth's leadership was to blame (as the media played it out to be). Instead, it was more than likely due to a significant lack of talent. Look at the roster...it's not good.
This offseason has been one step forward, three steps back for Lowe and the Oilers. First off, they decided their main problem last year was a lack of offensive prowess on the blue line. So they decided to ship out any defenceman that knew how to play defence and brought in six players that, while offensively gifted, are quite irresponsible in their own end. I'm sure the near 40 year old Roloson is going to enjoy all the prime scoring opportunities from the opposition!
Lowe failed to address the real problems: consistent play in their own end from the defence and some forwards that can consistently find the back of the net. The forwards could have been partially addressed in house: Lupul had a down season but is still very young and very talented. Hemsky just needs a good sniper to pass to. Robbie Schremp is waiting in the wings (along with Robert Nilsson) and if the Oilers are so unconcerned about the lack of defensive play from their defense corps, why are they so concerned about Schremp and Nilsson's defensive shortcomings?
So what do the Oilers do? They panic. They flip one of their talented forwards (Lupul) along with their best defensive d-man (by far) in Jason Smith for the offensive minded d-man Joni Pitkanen and Geoff Sanderson (who has a fork protruding from his back). They brought back Dick Tarnstrom who can't play in his own end to save his life.
The one smart move they made was signing Thomas Vanek to a huge offer sheet. Vanek is an elite goal scorer that would have made a huge impact playing with Hemsky on the top line. Not only would Vanek have proven to be worth the money, he'd also be worth the first, second and third picks. Buffalo, of course did the right thing in matching the offer.
Apparently Lowe is flush with cash this summer and instead of recognizing that there is nobody on the market worth the money (and therefore saving his resources for next year instead of way overspending), Lowe decided all this money was burning a hole in his pocket. So he decided to send out another offer sheet to a restricted free agent. But instead of getting one to Zach Parise in New Jersey, a very talented young pivot that can play at both ends of the ice and potted 30 goals last year, he decided to go after Dustin Penner. Now, I like Penner, but the guy has had one decent NHL season after going undrafted out of college and getting cut by the Winkler Flyers of all teams. Three times! There's no denying he has talent and some potential. But there is no way he is worth that money. Some people want to look at it as a future investment (overpay now so he'll be getting underpaid at the end of the deal) but what happens if Penner has a Lupulesque season in Edmonton next year? The same things being said about Penner this year were being said about Lupul last year. Would the Oilers sour on Penner right away, too?
Further compounding the Oilers problem is the fact they give up the first, second and third round picks in the draft. This is not something to sneeze at. Those picks are extremely valuable and one good draft can really set up an organization with top end talent and good depth for years to come. It's the principle that Billy Beane goes by. And there is NO way Penner is worth all those picks.
So what did Kevin Lowe do this offseason? He limited the financial flexibility of a small town team for the next five years. He mortgaged a lot of long term assets to take a flyer on a still very raw and developing player. He turned his team from a punchless offence with poor defence to a team that has a punchless offence with horrible defence. And he pissed off a bunch of GMs while also significantly driving up the price of young players (which, you know, is something a small market team should not be doing at all because, if you look at the Billy Beane model, cheap, decent young players are the players his franchise model revolves around).
If there is a lesson to be learned by NHL franchises (and all sports in general) is that the higher ups should never make a GM feel pressured into having a winning season during any given season (unless they are a huge market team with nearly endless resources like the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.). What happens is that GM starts making panic moves and mortgaging the future just to win a few more games next year. One step forward.....three steps back.
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