Thoughts on Fantasy Hockey

Fantasy hockey (roto-style fantasy hockey, anyways....straight points leagues are for little ninnies who still get tucked in my their mothers) is the last fantasy sport that is relatively unbesmirched by the so-called "experts," which is why I love it so much.

Fantasy baseball and football are so well covered and with such depth by rather popular media sources that any Tom, Dick or Harry (because we all know that all Toms, Dicks and Harrys are dumbasses) can pick up a football pool guide, spend about 45 minutes reading a site like Rotoworld and have just as good a draft as the Brad that spent a couple of hours researching, ranking players, making up a fancy spreadsheet and devising a formula. A simple formula, but a formula nonetheless.

Hockey? Well, you get TSN running a 4 team mock draft with 7 player rosters, which is about as in depth as reviewing an album based on its front cover. No, fantasy hockey is the last sport where the dumbasses still congregate at the bottom of the standings each season and the cream always rises to the top. There is a reason I've finished top 2 the last three seasons!

There are no sleepers in football or baseball. The moment a player gets labeled a sleeper, I can guarantee you somebody is going to draft him way too early. Think Vincent Jackson from the Chargers going 4 rounds ahead of Deion Branch this year. But a hockey sleeper is still a sleeper. Now that I've finished my two most important drafts, I'm willing to divulge my hockey "sleepers" and "busts".

Sleepers

Petr Sykora - The guy SHOULDN'T be a sleeper but he still gets no respect in drafts. He's only playing on a line with Sidney Crosby this year. And it wasn't that long ago that Sykora was a 70-80 point player in Jersey.

Manny Legace - The Blues made significant improvements defensively when Andy Murray took over head coaching duties and look for that to continue into this season. Legace has always been a "good enough" goalie and he makes an excellent number three or even number two in deeper leagues. Much better than Manny Fernandez.

Shane O'Brien - Although he gets you some great PIM numbers, he's not your average one-dimensional goon. He is capable of putting up 30-35 points as well...not bad from a d-man. His value also got a boost with the recent injury to Dan Boyle....in that he's likely going to get some time on a powerplay with Lecavalier, St. Louis and Richards.

David Legwand - Look, this guy was having a pretty good season last year playing on Nashville's top line before they acquired Peter Forsberg. He was still able to produce in a reduced role. Legwand should be back up on the top line and will produce on a Nashville team that won't be near as bad as anybody is predicting.

Chris Mason - Speaking of Nashville, what about their goalie. Mason is getting drafted well after the second tier of goalies, even though he clearly belongs in that group. The back-up this year, Dan Ellis, is not much of a threat to steal starts so expect a ton of games from Mason, who was arguably better than Vokoun last year.

Mark Streit - Offensively minded d-man who has moved up to play forward frequently with Montreal. Streit's not going to help you in many other categories, but he's not being drafted in most leagues and is very capable of 40+ points.

Nik Antropov - The ultimate sleeper. Most people simply hate this guy for reasons that are completely unjustified. The only knock you can make on Antropov is that he is injury prone. There is absolutely no denying his talent and if he stays healthy, look for a big year from him on the Sundin/Blake line. This guy is either going to be undrafted in your league or available for next to nothing.....he's the Rex Grossman of fantasy hockey...only with talent.

Keep an eye on:

Jaroslav Hlinka - Czech league scoring leader last year is good friends with Milan Hejduk (which is why Colorado signed him). He's had a great camp playing on a line with Stastny and Hensick in camp and if he stays on this line when Hejduk returns he could have a very good season.

Nathan Paetsch - Hard-nosed d-man in Buffalo has the skill set required to QB the powerplay. It's still not determined who will get the gig, but if Paetsch does he should be a good all around d-man.

Ryan Callahan - This kid is likely stuck on the third line in New York but he is capable of significant production in every single category if the opportunity becomes available on one of the scoring lines.

Busts: These guys aren't so much "busts" as they are guys to avoid because you'll have to draft them far too early if you want them

Carey Price - First off, it is extremely unlikely that Price takes over the number one job in Montreal. Secondly, Montreal was a brutal defensive team last year that didn't bring in much personnel to change that. So even if Price steals the top job, he's going to have a below average GAA and save percentage. Do yourself a favor and wait a round or two later and take Legace.

Andy McDonald - Kunitz isn't nearly as good a player as the stat sheet said last year and losing Selanne as a linemate is really going to hurt. The way Bertuzzi/Getzlaf/Ryan played, it would not be surprising if they become the top line before too long. You can easily pass on McDonald and grab a David Legwand later on.

Andrei Markov - Funny thing that I own him in a league! He just slipped ridiculously far. The thing with Markov is that he no longer has Sheldon Souray's booming shot to set up for power play one timers, which is where he made his bread and butter. He's going to be a decent option, he's just slipped down a tier or two from last year.

Erik Cole - Very injury prone and even when he is healthy, he never produces as well as you think he does. Do yourself a favor and avoid the headache by passing on this guy in your draft.

Dominik Hasek - Why waste a decent pick on a guy likely to miss 30-40 games when you can pick up somebody like Chris Mason with a similar pick?

Manny Fernandez - Avoid like the plague. Fernandez looked done last year and he was playing in a very goalie friendly system. Boston is not...so...goalie friendly. I refused to draft him even though I needed a third goalie and he was the last sure starter left. I waited until the last round and took Marc Denis...that's how much I'd avoid this guy.

Rick Nash - Unless you're simply looking for goals, look elsewhere. Nash is a big name that really only produces in two categories: shots on goal and goals. His +/- will hurt you and he doesn't get too many assists, which brings down his powerplay points totals. I'd much rather have an Alexander Frolov or Paul Kariya to fill my left wing slot.

Hokcey Keeper League Ranks Part 1: Centres

With the completion of my keeper league draft, I can no reveal my keeper rankings. This is for leagues that include PIMs.

Tier 1

Sidney Crosby - Best player in the league. Oh...and young, too.
Joe Thornton - Consistently among the league's top scorers and in his prime.
Jason Spezza - Talented young center playing with a great winger.
Eric Staal - Young and good.
Vincent Lecavalier - Would be higher if he were a few years younger.

Tier 2

Pavel Datsyuk - Not quite elite, but very good.
Marc Savard - Value increases due to PIMs.
Anze Kopitar - LA looks to be a high scoring team for a very long time.
Olli Jokinen - Most underrated player in the league?
Daniel Briere - Won't match last year's numbers.
Patrick Marleau - Struggled a bit last year but should bounce back.
Brad Richards - Ditto.
Henrik Sedin - Our league values scorers over playmakers, causing Henrik to slide a bit.
Scott Gomez - Solid playmaker that doesn't get a lot of goals.
Jordan Staal - This high based more on his long term potential.

Tier 3

Patrice Bergeron - Playing in Boston hurts his +/-.
Nicklas Backstrom - Ridiculously talented yet unproven.
Jonathan Toews - Ditto.
Joe Sakic - Age is the only reason he's this low. Hard to spend a top pick on a guy you only control for a couple of years.
Patrick Elias - Lacks the silky smooth passer of years past.
Ryan Getzlaf - Love this kid. Reminds me of Mark Messier-lite.
Mats Sundin - Age prevents Mats from joining the elite centres.
Mike Cammalleri - LA will score piles of goals for years to come.
Andy McDonald - May struggle without Selanne.
Paul Stastny - I think last year was a bit of a fluke.
Chris Drury - Better NHL player than fantasy player.
Michael Nylander - Great situation, though that hasn't always meant great numbers for Nylander.

Tier 4

Nathan Horton - Another Mark Messier-lite.
Petr Sykora - Likely playing with Crosby. This might be too low if that is the case.
Martin Straka - Underrated in fantasy. Just produces year after year.
David Legwand - Production should increase with increased workload.
Derek Roy - Ditto.
Tim Connolly - If he stays healthy this will be too low. IF.
Daymond Langkow - Solid all around player.
Phil Kessel - High ceiling...questions about teammate, conditioning.
Jason Arnott - See Langkow, Daymond.
Jeff Carter - Really high potential but may not see enough playing time.
Peter Mueller - Likely centering Coyotes top line. High upside.
Peter Forsberg - Will he play? Can he stay healthy? Most importantly...is he still the same player? Too many questions to put him any higher than this.
Matthew Lombardi - Will either breakout or flop this year under Keenan.
Rod Brind' Amour - Old. Last year reeks of a fluke.
Michael Handzus - If healthy, could really surprise in LA.
Sean Horcoff - Needs a sniper on his line to have value. No...Dustin Penner isn't it.
Jarret Stoll - Overrated.

Tier 5

Pierre-Marc Bouchard - Runs hot and cold. No PIMs either.
Kyle Wellwood - Talented, but Toronto seems a bit of a fantasy mess right now.
Doug Weight - Could have one last good season. Unlikely.
Vaclav Prospal - Strange year last year, being unable to produce on a line with Lecavalier and St. Louis.
Tuomo Ruutu - Can he stay healthy? If so, may be a bargain.
Mike Comrie - Comrie stinks but will get lots of PP time.
Robert Lang - All depends on his role. Centering Havlat? Gold! If not, avoid.
Bryan Little - Should centre Kovalchuk or Hossa, which ain't a bad gig.
Mike Modano - Aging and skills declining.
Saku Koivu - Ditto.
Patrick O'Sullivan - If he were guaranteed second line ice time, would be much higher.
Joe Pavelski - Value goes as his role on the team goes.
Antoine Vermette - Sleeper if he ends up on a line with Alfredsson.
Stephen Weiss - Lots of talent but can't seem to get going.
Brad Boyes - Was last year the anamoly or two years ago?
Chris Higgins - No PIMs and playing in Montreal reduces appeal.
Jochen Hecht - Could be in line for important minutes in Buffalo.

The Value of Running Back Depth

In my prize league on ESPN, Tony Romo's HUGE game won me a week that I was trailing in quite badly. But then came 4 passing TDs and a rushing TD and all my worries were put to rest.

More concerning, however, were the injuries to both Cadillac Williams and Brandon Jacobs, both in my starting line-up. Losing two starting running backs (well...one is my flex back) can usually create roster chaos and put a team behind the eight ball for the next couple weeks. Until I looked at my bench and saw Adrian Peterson, Jerious Norwood and LenDale White sitting there.

During the draft, people couldn't believe I picked a 4th running back before my 2nd receiver, another running back before my starting QB. That's right....I picked Jerious Norwood before I picked Romo, the guy that won me the week. But my motto is that you can never have too many quality backs. Running backs have short careers and are highly injury prone. The only way to avoid a losing season is lots and lots of depth at the position. It protects you against losing two starting backs in the opening week. And if everyone stays healthy, you will usually find one team desperate for a solid back and can usually make a trade that his heavily skewed in your favor and fill another position of need.

Quick Thought on Ryan Howard

I've know seen more than a couple people mention Ryan Howard as a bust this year in fantasy baseball. Ryan Howard has not been a bust by any stretch of the imagination. People drafting Howard in the first round of fantasy drafts this year with thoughts of him posting a .300ish batting average were delusional. Nowhere on any of his stops in the minors was he ever a good hitter for average. He has always had tremendous power and a .260 type batting average. Last year was a fluke in the batting average department and to think it was repeatable is to ignore a mountain of statistics that say otherwise. He has done exactly what I expected this year: on pace for 40+ homers, a .265-.270 average and 120+ RBI. That's nothing to sneeze at.