A strange thing is occurring this year in fantasy baseball. For the first time in like ever, first basemen is not ridiculously deep. In fact, one could argue that first base is actually rather shallow, which seems ludicrous on the surface. However, when one scratches at the surface, a few things become immediately noticeable.
First off, the two safest bets at the position are a slugger who will struggle to hit .270 this year (Ryan Howard), and a .280 hitter with 35-40 HR power (Mark Teixeira). After that, its a field full of question marks.
Pujols would be a top three selection if there weren't severe injury concerns clouding his season. One cannot justify risking their top pick on such a dicey proposition this year. Also in the top tier of first basemen lies Prince Fielder, a player I loved last year because he was getting no love. This year is quite the opposite, as he is going as early as the first round, which is too early, in my opinion. Fielder will always be a health risk because of his weight and I think last year was his career year.
Finally, the last member of my top tier is Lance Berkman. Berkman is a fairly safe bet this year, but lacks the power potential of the players mentioned before him. I strongly believe that it would be in your best interest to try and grab one of the five players mentioned so far. My focus has been on trying to land Teixeira or Berkman in the 3rd to 4th rounds if at all possible.
If you miss the boat on one of these five, you're left with a group of talented, yet flawed players in Justin Morneau, Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, and Adrian Gonzalez. The issues here range from health (Lee), home field (Gonzalez), inconsistency (Konerko, Morneau) to questions of whether he can do it again (Pena). Of this group, I prefer Pena and Morneau because of their potential ceilings.
Depending on your league, you may look at grabbing another 1B to fill a UTIL spot or what have you and the best remaining options are probably Adam LaRoche, James Loney, Billy Butler, Carlos Delgado and Joey Votto (if he wins a spot).
Players to Target:
Mark Teixeira - If you can land him in the third round, look for a .290 average and 35+ HRs.
Lance Berkman - Seems to be slipping quite a ways in many drafts and provides good value as the last sure bet before the drop.
Carlos Pena - Look for the numbers to fall, but not enough to justify the lack of respect he's getting in fantasy leagues.
Players to Avoid:
Albert Pujols - Too risky for the pick it'll cost you to select him.
Prince Fielder - Look for a drop in production and his pudgy figure to take a toll on his health.
Todd Helton - This guy is unlikely to see 20 HRs again in his career, yet people still pay for the name.
Sleepers:
Billy Butler - Big time prospect looked very impressive in his debut last year.
Joey Votto - Big time power potential if he can secure a job. With Dusty Baker as his manager, this may prove difficult.
Casey Kotchmann - Kotchmann is the kind of 1B that won't hurt you if you have enough power at other positions, though he could develop into 25-30 HR type power.
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