I lead off with this: you know you have a poor manager of your baseball club when it takes an injury to your starting shortstop to force the manager to even consider playing the vastly superior player at that position. This is what has happened in Cincinnati, where it looked as if Dusty Baker had Alex Gonzalez (the black one) inked in as the starting shortstop, despite the presence of the MUCH better Jeff Keppinger in the organization. Keppinger brings some pop and a good average to a weak position and although not yet draftable in standard leagues, makes a great sleeper to keep an eye on.
Baker is an incompetent fool, abusing his starting pitchers and focusing on unimportant secondary skills like speed and not striking out instead of looking at things like the ability to not get out and to hit for power. Baker also has a penchant for playing washed up veterans over up and coming youngsters, which could really kill the potential of top prospects like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. It's obvious Bruce is likely going to be blocked, as the Reds signed Corey Patterson (a vastly inferior player), while its entirely likely Votto will lose a lot of time to Scott Hatteberg, which does not bode well for the Reds' success this year. I can't, for the life of me, understand why the Reds brought in Baker when they have so many youngsters knocking on the door to get some playing time in the majors.
As for the shortstop position in regards to fantasy, I approach the position with one word in mind: speed. Shortstop is where I try and add a speedster, and there is nobody faster than Jose Reyes. I like Reyes as the first shortstop off the board because of his tremendous speed. I like him even more than the more popular Hanley Ramirez this year, mainly because there are fewer health concerns and Reyes plays on a better team.
If Jimmy Rollins could repeat his season from last year, I'd pencil him in with Reyes and Ramirez. However, I expect a decline because his peripheral stats suggest he was playing well over his head. He's still a valuable player with his combination of speed and power, just not as safe.
After these three come a group of solid, yet rather uninspiring options. These guys won't hurt you, but they don't provide the speed I look for from my shortstop. They are: Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, Troy Tulowitzki, Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy, Michael Young and Edgar Renteria. They all have some combination of power and/or average and are useful, but I usually look elsewhere.
The lower tier speed options are what I'm usually looking at in drafting a shortstop if I don't take Ramirez/Reyes/Rollins. Later in the draft you can grab a player like Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal or Julio Lugo and help yourself out in the speed department. All of these guys also have the ability to give you double digit home runs, increasing their value. They aren't flashy or sexy names, but they definitely have value.
The position also has some intriguing later round options that might even go undrafted, yet bear watching. Stephen Drew could easily but together a 20/20 season soon. Khalil Greene has legit power, but his average may hurt you. Felipe Lopez stole 44 bases two years ago and has some pop, but may not have enough playing time. Bobby Crosby has the talent, but his health is the ultimate question mark, while Ryan Theriot can provide you with some speed, but little else.
Players to Target
Jose Reyes - Best base stealer in the game, with a little pop.
Jhonny Peralta - Going pretty late on average and will give you .280 with 25-30 homers.
Julio Lugo - Very unsexy pick, but he has speed and his average will bounce back.
Players to Avoid
Jimmy Rollins - Won't be worth the first round pick required to get him.
Michael Young - Will hit for average, but provide little else.
Miguel Tejada - I don't see this guy aging too well and he provides no speed whatsoever.
Sleepers
Felipe Lopez - If he can get the playing time, he has the speed and power numbers to be very useful.
Jeff Keppinger - See the intro.
2 comments:
Thats some pretty simple minded analysis you just gave. Jimmy Rollins was MVP two years ago and got a hurt a few times last year. He is worth a first round pick and I think has a higher stealing percentage than Reyes. He 100% healthy this year and will be the number one shortstop in every category except steals simply because he has more power.
-The Professional
I don't think its simple minded at all. In fact, it was pretty much bang on. Rollins wasn't worth a first round pick last year, which is when this was written, btw. Unless you're happy with 11 HR, 40 some stolen bases and a .270 average. And he clearly wasn't in the same class as Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes. The MVP award is pretty meaningless in this situation as well because a.) he was the third best player on his team that season and b.) MVP awards aren't given out based on fantasy baseball performance.
Why don't you go take your Rollins fanboydom someplace else instead of trolling on other people's blogs.
Post a Comment