A-Rod. That is your first pick in the draft if he's available. He's kinda okay. He has power, average, lots of runs, lots of RBIs and can steal a few bases. If he's available with your first pick and you don't pick him, you failed.
After A-Rod comes a trio of players that will be selected within the first two rounds. David Wright is a 30/30 threat that should probably be the second 3B off the board. After him, I prefer Ryan Braun over Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera will likely be picked ahead of Braun but Cabrera's power potential is limited, his weight concerns me, and he's not going to steal bases. Braun crushed pitching last year and can probably swipe 20 bases over a full season.
The second tier of 3B consists of Aramis Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, and Garrett Atkins and arguably Chone Figgins. Ramirez and Zimmerman have the potential to come close to first tier production, though I'd be cautious of Zimmerman as he's still young and developing into his power. Chipper was a monster last year when healthy, and that's the problem with him...staying healthy. He slugged .604, so the power is definitely still there. Atkins is the wild card because I never thought he was anything and I really think his numbers are Coors inflated. That being said, fantasy doesn't factor in home ballpark, so he should be a fairly safe bet...just temper your power expectations. I personally don't like taking Figgins as a third basemen because investing on speed in the outfield and middle infield positions comes across as a better roster management technique.
After this, things get pretty cloudy. Adrian Beltre, Hank Blalock, Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Lowell, Alex Gordon, Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez are all in the mix. Lowell and Beltre are probably the safest bets, being relatively healthy and productive over the past few seasons. However, given the lower tier depth at 3B, I think if you're going to take players from this group you should look long and hard at Blalock or Encarnacion. Blalock has battled some nicks the last few years but was raking last year when healthy and plays in a great home ballpark. Encarnacion was a hot prospect coming up but has been jerked around a bit by the Reds (who have a tendency to do this...see Kearns, Austin and Dunn, Adam). Encarnacion finally established himself at the end of last year and, given the great hitter's park he plays in, could easily approach 30-35 HRs this year and a solid average.
Glaus, Rolen and Chavez are all extremely talented players that could still be fantasy studs, however, they are battling very long odds to stay healthy and see a significant chunk of playing time. I think Alex Gordon will be a perfectly fine hitter soon, but think it will be next year that things finally come together.
Players to Target
Ryan Braun - Could very easily outproduce Wright and be the second best 3B behind A-Rod. Don't hesitate to take him early in the second round.
Aramis Ramirez - Look for him to regain some of his power stroke if the wrist injuries are behind him. Has legit 35-40 HR power and can hit .300.
Hank Blalock - Doesn't strike me as the injury riddled type and if the injuries are behind him, he should hit .280 with 30-35 HRs.
Edwin Encarnacion - Still quite young (same age as David Wright) and if they're finally done jerking him around, he'll hit.
Players to Avoid
Miguel Cabrera - Great hitter, but not enough power or speed to be truly elite.
Chone Figgins - I don't like investing in speedy players with little other skills at a corner infield spot, especially since picking up a speedster a 2B makes so much more sense . (His average last year was a fluke).
Nomar Garciaparra - This guy is done, but he's still getting drafted. Might not even be starting if Joe Torre manages his roster properly.
Mike Lowell - A generally safe bet, his upside is fairly limited.
Sleepers
Josh Fields - Very talented youngster with a ton of power....the problem is whether he can bring his average up to continue to get playing time.
Evan Longoria - If he gets the job, he could have a good season playing on a fast improving Rays club.
Andy LaRoche - LaRoche has topped prospect lists for awhile now and should hit for good average and power at the major league level. The issue is playing time, as the Dodgers may do something stupid like play Garciaparra in front of him (this IS the same team that continues to play Juan Pierre over Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp).
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