Fantasy Baseball Preview 2008: Second Base

Second base has traditionally been a fantasy baseball black hole and this year is hardly an exception. There are two second basemen that stand heads and shoulders above the pack and one of them won't be 2B eligible next year in all likelihood. Those two are Chase Utley and BJ Upton.

Utley is so good and so far ahead of the rest of his position that he should be considered a top 5 pick this year. I honestly wouldn't fault anybody taking him after A-Rod. You should be tripping over yourself to grab him in the back half of the first round. If he slips to you in the 2nd, well...jackpot.

I think you have to give very serious consideration to taking one of Utley, Upton or Brandon Phillips in the first four rounds because the drop off after that point is so steep. And to be perfectly honest, I don't quite trust Phillips yet.

If you miss on one of these three, look long and hard at Brian Roberts. I don't quite trust him staying healthy over the course of the season, but he's one of the few pure speed threats at a position that traditionally can be used as a source of stolen bases. Robinson Cano is looking like an okay option, though I think his power potential is limited and he has no speed.

After this, things drop off again. That doesn't mean there isn't any talent, it's just very questionable or else comes with trade-offs. Ian Kinsler and Rickie Weeks are legitimate 20/20 threats, but will likely bring a poor average. Howie Kendrick and Placido Polanco should provide a nice average, but lack power or speed. Jeff Kent is still a decent player but is losing pop and has no speed. Dan Uggla has lots of power but brings a bad batting average. Kaz Matsui is a decent source of steals and can be gotten fairly cheaply.

Two younger players to keep a close eye on and consider drafting later are Kelly Johnson or Aaron Hill. Johnson could develop into a 20/20 threat and Hill is looking to be a lighter version of Chase Utley. After these players are all gone, pickings get slim with players like Akinori Iwamura, Mark Ellis, Dustin Pedroia, Freddy Sanchez, Ryan Theriot and Orlando Hudson. You probably don't want to end up with one of these guys.

Your goal at 2B should you miss on Utley/Upton/Phillips should be to draft a player that helps a need. If you have lots of speed in the outfield and short stop, take a Jeff Kent or Aaron Hill. If you need speed, look at Brian Roberts or Kaz Matsui.

Players to Target

Chase Utley - One of the game's better hitters at a very shallow position.

BJ Upton - Can do a bit of everything, though expect a bit of regression in batting average.

Rickie Weeks - Has power and speed and I think he can become a .280 hitter.

Aaron Hill - If you have enough speed elsewhere in your line-up, consider Hill, who should blast 20-25 HRs this year with a .290 average. He belted 17 HRs and 47 doubles last year...and as he enters his prime you should anticipate several of those doubles becoming HRs.

Players to Avoid

Robinson Cano - I'm simply not a believer and he doesn't do enough in the speed department to justify his lofty draft position.

Placido Polanco - The average is nice but he simply has no power or speed.

Dustin Pedroia - Same as Polanco and the amount of hype in the press is really inflating his fantasy value.

Luis Castillo - Only value is in his speed and his constant leg injuries have sapped him of that.

Freddy Sanchez - Only skill is the ability to hit for average. Add in the fact he plays on a bad offense, and you end up with poor all around counting stats.

Sleepers

Marcus Giles - If he can wrestle the starting job from Jayson Nix, he could have a resurgence in the hitter friendly confines of Coors Field.

Mark Ellis - Always an injury concern, Ellis showed he has 20 HR pop in his bat and could reach double digit steals. Not bad for a 2B going undrafted most of the time.

Fantasy Baseball Preview 2008: First Base

A strange thing is occurring this year in fantasy baseball. For the first time in like ever, first basemen is not ridiculously deep. In fact, one could argue that first base is actually rather shallow, which seems ludicrous on the surface. However, when one scratches at the surface, a few things become immediately noticeable.

First off, the two safest bets at the position are a slugger who will struggle to hit .270 this year (Ryan Howard), and a .280 hitter with 35-40 HR power (Mark Teixeira). After that, its a field full of question marks.

Pujols would be a top three selection if there weren't severe injury concerns clouding his season. One cannot justify risking their top pick on such a dicey proposition this year. Also in the top tier of first basemen lies Prince Fielder, a player I loved last year because he was getting no love. This year is quite the opposite, as he is going as early as the first round, which is too early, in my opinion. Fielder will always be a health risk because of his weight and I think last year was his career year.

Finally, the last member of my top tier is Lance Berkman. Berkman is a fairly safe bet this year, but lacks the power potential of the players mentioned before him. I strongly believe that it would be in your best interest to try and grab one of the five players mentioned so far. My focus has been on trying to land Teixeira or Berkman in the 3rd to 4th rounds if at all possible.

If you miss the boat on one of these five, you're left with a group of talented, yet flawed players in Justin Morneau, Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, and Adrian Gonzalez. The issues here range from health (Lee), home field (Gonzalez), inconsistency (Konerko, Morneau) to questions of whether he can do it again (Pena). Of this group, I prefer Pena and Morneau because of their potential ceilings.

Depending on your league, you may look at grabbing another 1B to fill a UTIL spot or what have you and the best remaining options are probably Adam LaRoche, James Loney, Billy Butler, Carlos Delgado and Joey Votto (if he wins a spot).

Players to Target:

Mark Teixeira - If you can land him in the third round, look for a .290 average and 35+ HRs.

Lance Berkman - Seems to be slipping quite a ways in many drafts and provides good value as the last sure bet before the drop.

Carlos Pena - Look for the numbers to fall, but not enough to justify the lack of respect he's getting in fantasy leagues.

Players to Avoid:

Albert Pujols - Too risky for the pick it'll cost you to select him.

Prince Fielder - Look for a drop in production and his pudgy figure to take a toll on his health.

Todd Helton - This guy is unlikely to see 20 HRs again in his career, yet people still pay for the name.

Sleepers:

Billy Butler - Big time prospect looked very impressive in his debut last year.

Joey Votto - Big time power potential if he can secure a job. With Dusty Baker as his manager, this may prove difficult.

Casey Kotchmann - Kotchmann is the kind of 1B that won't hurt you if you have enough power at other positions, though he could develop into 25-30 HR type power.

Fantasy Baseball Preview 2008: Catchers

Instead of posting my usual player rankings lists, I'm just going to go over a brief discussion on each position and look at draft strategies and whom to target (and whom to avoid.)

Catcher is the position I seem to completely neglect this year. Aside from Victor Martinez, I don't see any catchers that I truly trust. And if you want to land Martinez, its going to cost you a very early pick.

After someone has reached for Martinez, we're left with the next 4 (in no particular order): McCann, Mauer, Martin and Posada. I find it hard to use an early pick on any of these guys because they all have warts. Mauer will struggle to stay healthy, McCann still hasn't separated himself that much from the next tier and Posada is an aging catcher that had a flukey batting average last year. I think the safest bet is Martin, who will get you some HRs and SBs, but I don't think his early draft position justifies taking him, considering the catching options later in the draft.

The importance of ranking player in tiers allows you to judge where to draft players, and never has that been so evident with catchers this year. If you miss one of the 5 players listed above, you can make the case to completely ignore drafting a catcher until the very end of your draft. Why? Let's look at my second tier (in no particular order):

Kenji Johjima
Jason Varitek
Ramon Hernandez
Bengie Molina
Ivan Rodriguez
Jarrod Saltalamacchia

If you do some quick math, you'll see that there are 11 catchers listed in the top two tiers. When you consider that most people play in 10 team leagues and very few people ever draft a back-up catcher, you'll see that you can get a perfectly serviceable catcher with your last pick, using your other picks to address other needs. All of the guys listed above are going to hit around .270-.280 and get you close to 15 HRs. Hernandez and Saltalamacchia probably have the highest upsides, but also come with the biggest question marks. Even if you still miss on these 11, guys like Geovany Soto and JR Towles are some intriguing young catchers with high upsides that would be worth a gamble.

So the moral of the story is: In 2008, there is no need drafting a catcher early, unless one of the top 5 are available at the right price. Otherwise, just wait until the very end to fill the need.

Guys to Target:

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Will likely see time at C and 1B to keep his promising bat in the line-up. Also plays in hitter friendly Texas.

Ramon Hernandez - If healthy, could hit like a first tier catcher.

Victor Martinez - Heads and shoulders above the rest and probably the safest pick. Also likely to be too expensive on draft day.

Guys to Avoid:

Jorge Posada - Catchers with Posada's age and workload do not tend to age well. He also had a ridiculously high BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

Ivan Rodriguez - Don't draft this fading player based on his name.

Bengie Molina - Will be a decent option but will likely kill you in runs and the RBIs will likely drop due to the crapstorm that is San Fran's offence this year.

Carlos Ruiz - Being touted as a sleeper, I find it hard to put too much faith behind 29 year old catchers that have never been known for their hitting in the past.

Sleepers:

Geovany Soto - Put up stellar numbers last year in the minors, but it was also the first season he hit well. May actually be overrated a bit right now.

J.R. Towles - If he wrestles away the starting job from hacktastic Brad Ausmus he may have a Russell Martin-lite type season.

Ryan Doumit - If he can find a spot as a starting OF in Pittsburgh, he could provide some very nice numbers.