Fantast Baseball Preview 2008: Shortstops

I lead off with this: you know you have a poor manager of your baseball club when it takes an injury to your starting shortstop to force the manager to even consider playing the vastly superior player at that position. This is what has happened in Cincinnati, where it looked as if Dusty Baker had Alex Gonzalez (the black one) inked in as the starting shortstop, despite the presence of the MUCH better Jeff Keppinger in the organization. Keppinger brings some pop and a good average to a weak position and although not yet draftable in standard leagues, makes a great sleeper to keep an eye on.

Baker is an incompetent fool, abusing his starting pitchers and focusing on unimportant secondary skills like speed and not striking out instead of looking at things like the ability to not get out and to hit for power. Baker also has a penchant for playing washed up veterans over up and coming youngsters, which could really kill the potential of top prospects like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. It's obvious Bruce is likely going to be blocked, as the Reds signed Corey Patterson (a vastly inferior player), while its entirely likely Votto will lose a lot of time to Scott Hatteberg, which does not bode well for the Reds' success this year. I can't, for the life of me, understand why the Reds brought in Baker when they have so many youngsters knocking on the door to get some playing time in the majors.

As for the shortstop position in regards to fantasy, I approach the position with one word in mind: speed. Shortstop is where I try and add a speedster, and there is nobody faster than Jose Reyes. I like Reyes as the first shortstop off the board because of his tremendous speed. I like him even more than the more popular Hanley Ramirez this year, mainly because there are fewer health concerns and Reyes plays on a better team.

If Jimmy Rollins could repeat his season from last year, I'd pencil him in with Reyes and Ramirez. However, I expect a decline because his peripheral stats suggest he was playing well over his head. He's still a valuable player with his combination of speed and power, just not as safe.

After these three come a group of solid, yet rather uninspiring options. These guys won't hurt you, but they don't provide the speed I look for from my shortstop. They are: Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, Troy Tulowitzki, Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy, Michael Young and Edgar Renteria. They all have some combination of power and/or average and are useful, but I usually look elsewhere.

The lower tier speed options are what I'm usually looking at in drafting a shortstop if I don't take Ramirez/Reyes/Rollins. Later in the draft you can grab a player like Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal or Julio Lugo and help yourself out in the speed department. All of these guys also have the ability to give you double digit home runs, increasing their value. They aren't flashy or sexy names, but they definitely have value.

The position also has some intriguing later round options that might even go undrafted, yet bear watching. Stephen Drew could easily but together a 20/20 season soon. Khalil Greene has legit power, but his average may hurt you. Felipe Lopez stole 44 bases two years ago and has some pop, but may not have enough playing time. Bobby Crosby has the talent, but his health is the ultimate question mark, while Ryan Theriot can provide you with some speed, but little else.

Players to Target

Jose Reyes - Best base stealer in the game, with a little pop.

Jhonny Peralta - Going pretty late on average and will give you .280 with 25-30 homers.

Julio Lugo - Very unsexy pick, but he has speed and his average will bounce back.

Players to Avoid

Jimmy Rollins - Won't be worth the first round pick required to get him.

Michael Young - Will hit for average, but provide little else.

Miguel Tejada - I don't see this guy aging too well and he provides no speed whatsoever.

Sleepers

Felipe Lopez - If he can get the playing time, he has the speed and power numbers to be very useful.

Jeff Keppinger - See the intro.

Fantasy Baseball Preview 2008: Third Base

A-Rod. That is your first pick in the draft if he's available. He's kinda okay. He has power, average, lots of runs, lots of RBIs and can steal a few bases. If he's available with your first pick and you don't pick him, you failed.

After A-Rod comes a trio of players that will be selected within the first two rounds. David Wright is a 30/30 threat that should probably be the second 3B off the board. After him, I prefer Ryan Braun over Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera will likely be picked ahead of Braun but Cabrera's power potential is limited, his weight concerns me, and he's not going to steal bases. Braun crushed pitching last year and can probably swipe 20 bases over a full season.

The second tier of 3B consists of Aramis Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, and Garrett Atkins and arguably Chone Figgins. Ramirez and Zimmerman have the potential to come close to first tier production, though I'd be cautious of Zimmerman as he's still young and developing into his power. Chipper was a monster last year when healthy, and that's the problem with him...staying healthy. He slugged .604, so the power is definitely still there. Atkins is the wild card because I never thought he was anything and I really think his numbers are Coors inflated. That being said, fantasy doesn't factor in home ballpark, so he should be a fairly safe bet...just temper your power expectations. I personally don't like taking Figgins as a third basemen because investing on speed in the outfield and middle infield positions comes across as a better roster management technique.

After this, things get pretty cloudy. Adrian Beltre, Hank Blalock, Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Lowell, Alex Gordon, Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez are all in the mix. Lowell and Beltre are probably the safest bets, being relatively healthy and productive over the past few seasons. However, given the lower tier depth at 3B, I think if you're going to take players from this group you should look long and hard at Blalock or Encarnacion. Blalock has battled some nicks the last few years but was raking last year when healthy and plays in a great home ballpark. Encarnacion was a hot prospect coming up but has been jerked around a bit by the Reds (who have a tendency to do this...see Kearns, Austin and Dunn, Adam). Encarnacion finally established himself at the end of last year and, given the great hitter's park he plays in, could easily approach 30-35 HRs this year and a solid average.

Glaus, Rolen and Chavez are all extremely talented players that could still be fantasy studs, however, they are battling very long odds to stay healthy and see a significant chunk of playing time. I think Alex Gordon will be a perfectly fine hitter soon, but think it will be next year that things finally come together.

Players to Target

Ryan Braun - Could very easily outproduce Wright and be the second best 3B behind A-Rod. Don't hesitate to take him early in the second round.

Aramis Ramirez - Look for him to regain some of his power stroke if the wrist injuries are behind him. Has legit 35-40 HR power and can hit .300.

Hank Blalock - Doesn't strike me as the injury riddled type and if the injuries are behind him, he should hit .280 with 30-35 HRs.

Edwin Encarnacion - Still quite young (same age as David Wright) and if they're finally done jerking him around, he'll hit.

Players to Avoid

Miguel Cabrera - Great hitter, but not enough power or speed to be truly elite.

Chone Figgins - I don't like investing in speedy players with little other skills at a corner infield spot, especially since picking up a speedster a 2B makes so much more sense . (His average last year was a fluke).

Nomar Garciaparra - This guy is done, but he's still getting drafted. Might not even be starting if Joe Torre manages his roster properly.

Mike Lowell - A generally safe bet, his upside is fairly limited.

Sleepers

Josh Fields - Very talented youngster with a ton of power....the problem is whether he can bring his average up to continue to get playing time.

Evan Longoria - If he gets the job, he could have a good season playing on a fast improving Rays club.

Andy LaRoche - LaRoche has topped prospect lists for awhile now and should hit for good average and power at the major league level. The issue is playing time, as the Dodgers may do something stupid like play Garciaparra in front of him (this IS the same team that continues to play Juan Pierre over Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp).