Starting Pitching Strategy

Yeah, posting this now doesn't really help much, but I thought it would be useful to post the strategy I've used for drafting pitching the last few years in my fantasy leagues.

First off, I very rarely, if ever, draft pitching early. I load up almost exclusively on hitting and then sift through the bargain bin to piece together my pitching staff. And each year there is always a handful of excellent pitching options that go way to late in the draft, if they don't get drafted at all. It seems that even to this day, people get too hung up on win loss records and suspiciously low ERA's without looking at the statistics that do a better job of measuring a pitcher's talent.

Determining a pitcher's true talent means looking at strike-out ratios, ground ball to flyball ratios and the ability to not give up home runs and walks. The last two will help lower WHIP and ERA, which should lead to more wins, while the first one leads to strike outs. And since strike outs are a category, we should be looking at high strike out pitchers with decent command that can keep the ball in the park.

If you really want to simplify this thing for yourself, just get a list of each pitcher's K/9 (strike outs per 9 innings). The higher the K/9, the more you should be targeting that pitcher. If you factor in the other peripherals, you can weed out a few more pitchers and you should be left with a list of guys to target.

At the start of the year I basically divided my list of targeted pitchers into two. The first one was guys that were known studs that were likely to be drafted quite high and thus, I wasn't specifically targeting them unless they slipped. This list has some pretty obvious names and looked as follows:

Johan Santana
Jake Peavy
Erik Bedard
Cole Hamels
Josh Beckett
Scott Kazmir
Justin Verlander
Carlos Zambrano
Felix Hernandez
Chris Young
John Lackey
Brandon Webb
John Smoltz
Dan Haren

All those guys are pretty safe bets to post big years if they remain healthy. Of course staying healthy for any pitcher is difficult so its hard to invest an early pick in them. And to drive the point home Lackey, Smoltz, Young, Beckett, Bedard and Peavy have all spent time battling injuries this year. That's almost half the list.

My second list is comprised of guys that have similar peripheral stats as the guys above, but have question marks surrounding them. This causes them to fall late in the draft, but also means they can bring incredible value. This list looks like:

Aaron Harang - Should be on the list above but still doesn't get respect.
Tim Lincecum - Incredible talent, but young and "unproven" and there are durability concerns.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - Wasn't phenomenal last year so lot's of people soured on him in fantasy.
Francisco Liriano - Coming off Tommy John surgery.
Yovani Gallardo - Young and stats from last year look bad because of two horrible starts.
A.J. Burnett - Injury prone.
Ben Sheets - Unable to stay off the DL.
Brett Myers - Struggled at times last year.
Javier Vazquez - Still considered a bust from his days as a Yankee.
Rich Harden - The definition of injury prone.
James Shields - Some people think last year was a fluke.
Rich Hill - Fluke?
Oliver Perez - Seems to be a head case.
Ian Snell - Pitches for the Pirates.
Chad Billingsley - Young and unproven.
Clay Buchholz - See Chad Billingsley.
Ervin Santana - Bad year last year.
Zack Greinke - Pitches for the Royals, head case.
Randy Wolf - Coming off of surgery/mediocre season.
Joba Chamberlain - Started the season in the bullpen.

From the above list Harden, Billingsley, Sheets, Lincecum, Matsuzaka, Santana, Chamberlain, Greinke and Shields have all pitched rather well. I happen to own those players on most of the teams I drafted this year. Harang, Wolf, Vazquez and Burnett have been solid for the most part. The rest of the bunch has either succumbed to inury (Gallardo, Liriano) or lost effectiveness (Myers, Hill, Perez) or in the case of Buchholz, been the victim of the roster numbers crunch.

So for this list we have what is close to a 50% success rate as well. That's pretty similar to the list of well established top line starters. And players like Harden, Sheets, Lincecum, Matsuzaka and Chamberlain all have elite-level potential when healthy.

Taking a bunch of fliers on these types of pitchers works well in mixed leagues because if you lose a couple to the injury bug, there are usually serviceable options on the waiver wire. And in the case of elite pitchers like Harden and Sheets, even if they only stay healthy for the first few months, they still provide lots of strike outs and keep your WHIP and ERA nice and low. If they get injured again you can cut them and not worry about the high draft pick you wasted on them.

The strategy does not work quite so well in deep leagues or AL/NL only leagues. In those leagues, the waiver wire depth is far poorer and you want to focus on reliable pitchers that are most likely to last the season without any issues. That's when a guy like Roy Halladay becomes a lot more valuable.

Filling Out My All Star Ballots

We can naturally assume the voting public, with all their ballot stuffing, homerism, and general casualness when filling out the ballot ("Derek Jeter was good all those other years so surely he must be good this year" type logic), is going to screw up the All Star ballot. Sadly, they'd still probably do better than the Baseball Writer's Association of America would do.

I suppose one could debate the meaning of the word All Star. Should it go to the players have the best current season? Should it be based on the last couple years? Or should it simply be the biggest stars in the game. For my ballot, I base it largely on what a player has done this season, with their past performance used to make the decision between close calls. I do not go by name recognition.

Let's see what we get.

AL

Catcher - Joe Mauer (0.852 OPS): Not a whole lot of competition. Mauer has finally hit some dingers and has outhit his closest competitor (Dioner Navarro (0.802)) while providing solid defense. Victor Martinez could have challenged had his power not mysteriously disappeared and he ended up on the DL.

First Base - Kevin Youkilis (0.917 OPS): I'm surprised, too. But in a down year for first basemen in the AL, the Greek God of Walks continues to get on base and has hit for decent power this year. He also brings a very good glove to the position, which gives him the nod over Justin Morneau (0.864) or Jason Giambi (0.947).

Second Base - Ian Kinsler (0.916 OPS): Kinsler is breaking out in a big way this year, hitting for the average and power that was expected of him a couple years ago. The fact that he has added 23 stolen bases gives him the edge over Brian Roberts (0.850) and Dustin Pedroia (0.817).

Third Base - Alex Rodriguez (0.999 OPS): Simply the best third baseman (and arguably player) on the planet. Excellent hitting with solid defense...the race isn't even close. The next best 3B in the AL might be a rookie, Evan Longoria of Tampa Bay.

Shortstop - Michael Young (0.757 OPS): AL shortstops suck. You could go with one of Derek Jeter, Jhonny Peralta, Michael Young, Bobby Crosby or Orlando Cabrera, though none are great choices. Jeter and Peralta are defensive liabilities, while Crosby and Cabrera are slick with the glove but suffer on offense. I'll go with Young, just because he's outhitting Jeter while providing similar to better defense.

Outfield - Josh Hamilton (0.914 OPS), Milton Bradley (1.051 OPS), JD Drew (0.976 OPS): Seriosly....that's what probably should be your AL outfield. Hamilton might be the story of the year, being a legit triple crown threat after being completely out of baseball two years ago with drug addiction. Bradley would have to be confined to LF because of his defense, but the short fused Ranger is quietly having a tremendous season. Drew went from being the most hated Red Sox player last year to probably their best.

Designated Hitter: Jason Giambi (0.947 OPS): The average is down, which makes it appear as though it's another mediocre season for Giambi, but he's drawing lots of walks and hitting the snot out of the ball and if you can get him off the defensive side of the field, all the better.

NL

Catcher - Geovany Soto (0.900 OPS): Soto has faded a bit, but the rookie backstop is a superior defensive player that is hitting on par with two other very good candidates, Brian McCann and Russel Martin. Luckily Tim Lincecum is on fire right now, meaning Bengie Molina won't be the token Giants player and cost one of these three players their spot.

First Base - Lance Berkman (1.118 OPS): Wow....the NL is as deep at 1B as the AL is thin. Berkman gets the nod over Pujols (1.095 OPS) and Adrian Gonzalez (0.871 OPS in the worst hitter's park in the universe). I would probably go with Pujols based on the fact that, well, its Pujols, but Berkman has somehow managed to steal 12 bases on top of everything.

Second Base - Chase Utley (0.990 OPS): Utley gets the nod ahead of Dan Uggla (0.995 OPS) simply because Utley has hit like this the last three seasons and plays vastly superior defense.

Thrid Base - Chipper Jones (1.136 OPS): Chipper is hitting the ball for average (flirting with .400) and power and if it weren't for the inevitable injuries, he'd be in the midst of one of the finest seasons we've seen since Bonds' prime.

Shortstop - Hanley Ramirez (0.939 OPS): Ramirez hits for average, power and has excellent speed on the basepaths (21 SB). Not even close, really, though Miguel Tejada is somehow right on his heels in the voting.

Outfield - Ryan Braun (0.851 OPS), Pat Burrell (0.999 OPS), Jason Bay (0.911 OPS): A lot of different ways to go here. Nate McLouth, Carlos Lee, Matt Holliday and Corey Hart all deserve some love, but Burrell and Bay are having excellent seasons and Braun was an absolute beast last year and has recently turned things up a notch to make up for a slow start. Yes, I realize Matt Holliday has excellent numbers again and was an MVP candidate last year, but I strongly believe his numbers crash if he doesn't play his home games at Coors field.

Designated Hitter - Albert Pujols (1.095 OPS): Because it took a ridiculous start to the season by Berkman to keep him out of the line-up.