Visions of Joe Thornton

Your Shit Don't Work In The Playoffs, Either

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 11:50:00 +0000

Or something like that.

Those were the words uttered (approximately) by Athletics GM Billy Beane several years ago when asked why the Athletics never realized success in the playoffs despite constantly finding a way to get there after being written off time and time again. The vast majority of the talking heads and mediots, from that moment on, labelled Beane as a guy that couldn't get it done in the playoffs. That he didn't know how to build a playoff team.

Except, its not really that hard. You simply....build a good team. If your team is good enough to bet one of the top 4 in the league after 162 games, then you have yourself a good team. If you go online or turn on TV, everybody talks about clutch players, proven playoff performers, choke artists, yadda-yadda yadda. Don't listen to them, though. All that stuff is overrated.

What Beane meant when he said his shit don't work in the playoffs is that the playoffs in baseball are essentially a crap shoot. The entire goal of the season should be to make the playoffs (especially for non-Yankee/Red Sox teams) and then everything after that is gravy. The entire issue is sample size. They take 162 games to whittle it down to the top 4 teams, and then you play 5 games to try and determine which team is "better." All it takes is for a slump here, an injury there, and an opposition member or two heating up and bam!....you're outta the playoffs before they seemingly started. Beane recognized this and so he never let his post season struggles bother him. You get there enough times, eventually luck will favor you once or twice.

That's why Cubs fans need to stop being little punk ass emo bitches and suck it up. Yeah...your team lost. So what?!?!? It happens. You were playing a decent Dodgers team. It was only a 5 game series. ANYTHING can happen in a 5 game series. A bad break here and there and you'll lose some close games. It's the reason why only two teams from each league used to make the playoffs....because more often than not, the best team doesn't always win.

The Cubs didn't give up on you. They didn't have a roster full of clutchless followers wandering aimlessly about waiting for their Godly clutch leader to take the reins and bring them to glory. They just played flat for a week. That shit happens. Suck it up. There's still next year and this team will probably return mostly intact. If they add some more players they increase their chances in the playoffs next year. Don't come bitching and whining to me about clutchiness and gamers and leaders. Fuck...the Dodgers had Juan Pierre on their bench and he's apparently the clutchiest, gameriest leader in all of baseball if you listen to the media.

Suck it up bitches and take it like a man. Shit happens. Yeah, its been a long time...but you've had some pretty shitty teams in the past. You got the privelege to watch a pretty good team all year and you at least had the excitement of the playoffs for a few days. How the hell do you think Royals fans feel?

10 Players You Need to Familiarize Yourself With

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 01:56:00 +0000

Every year everybody and their grandma releases their sleeper list, which is, in my opinion, the biggest waste of a read pretty much anywhere. There is usually one of two main problems with these lists:

1.) They list players that aren't really sleepers. Everybody already knows who Steve Stamkos and Kyle Turris are and are well aware of their potential. They're high ceiling youngsters that are going to be overdrafted by some zealous idiot that just finished reading the crappy sleeper list and wants to make sure he gets Stamkos' 50-60 point season before anybody else does, passing on Daymond Langkow's 60-70 point season. Another example was Tim Lincecum last year in baseball pools. People had him as a sleeper, whereas anybody that really followed what was going on would know that Lincecum wasn't a sleeper....he was already a legitimate front line fantasy starter due to his high strike out totals and great rate stats.

2.) They list players that are too deep for your league. This causes some idiot to draft Sami Lepisto ahead of Roman Hamrlik because they read somewhere that Lepisto is a sleeper, when the list really meant that Lepisto has a shot of making the Capitals this year and could, if things break right, make the 2nd line power play unit and receive a marginal amount of power play time with guys like Brook Laich and maybe get 25 points. Of course people get intrigued by the unknown (Lepisto? Nobody's even HEARD of that guy....maybe he's some up and coming phenom. Man will I look brilliant taking him in the 18th round if he is the next big thing!)

No....I hate sleeper lists. Sleeper lists never have the intended effect of what they're supposed to do. Instead of making you aware of guys that you should keep your eye on or might have a higher ceiling than you think, all they really do is cause fantasy nation to end up overdrafting players several rounds too early. Especially when a particular player ends up on EVERYBODY's sleeper list (I'm looking at you Vincent Jackson of the San Diego Chargers). This player can no longer be considered a sleeper and will, in fact, be drafted FAR too early in your draft. Yes...constant appearances on sleeper lists will actually make that player OVERrated.

As a rule, the players on this list shouldn't be drafted in your standard 10 team league with average size rosters, unless you're taking a late round flier on one. There is just not enough value in these guys to draft right now. However, they are the players you should have on your watch list early in the season. If they are producing or getting the ice time, then you can seriously consider picking them up as the last player on your bench or as an injury replacement. But please...don't draft them and then complain when they get sent down to the AHL for more seasoning because I already freaking warned you.

1.) R.J. Umberger (C, Columbus Blue Jackets) - There is a spot open up the middle in Columbus that is betweeen two pretty good offensive players in Kristian Huselius and Rick Nash. The battle will come down to two players: Derrick Brassard and R.J. Umberger. The loser will center a line of Fred Modin and Jakub Voracek. Umberger would seem to make more sense on the second line, splitting up rookies Brassard and Voracek (and especially if Filatov makes this team, as he would probably command 2nd line time, as well.) However, if Umberger does get on the first line, he could be in line for a useful season. He was modestly productive last year playing on a deep Philly team and he should only see his ice time increase this year. Being at a fairly deep position (centre), Umberger isn't that draftworthy yet, but is someone to keep an eye once the injury bug begins to strike.

2.) Alex Goligoski (D, Pittsburgh Penguins) - Ryan Whitney is on the shelf for a few months. And Sergei Gonchar is injured and may miss a month or two. That means someone has to step up and QB the very potent Pittsburgh power play with Malkin and Crosby. The two candidates are likely Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski. While Letang has the inside track, Goligoski shouldn't be counted out, especially if Gonchar's injury is more serious than expected. He's a good player to stash away in deep keeper leagues. (Update: Gonchar elected to undergo surgery, which makes Goligoski a must own in medium to deep leagues if you have the roster space.)

3.) Sean Bergenheim (LW, New York Islanders) - I've always been a big Bergenheim fan since his appearance in the World Juniors several years back. He seemed to be one of the best players on the ice and I'm surprised he hasn't done much in the NHL, given his skill level. He had a solid end to the season last year and could be ready to turn the corner and become a productive second line forward. In New York, he may get a crack at the top line but will lack solid teammates. Still, a 50 point season isn't out of the question.

4.) Matt Niskanen (D, Dallas Stars) - Niskanen is borderline draftable in most one year pools (but should be owned in keeper pools). He seems to be a forgotten man this year, even though Sergei Zubov is banged up and Philippe Boucher is coming back from injury. Neither are sure bets to get healthy and remain that way, which means a spot will likely be available on the Dallas power play. Niskanen impressed last year while filling in there on occasion and could be a 35-40 point d-man with enough PP time.

5.) Pascal Dupuis (LW, Pittsburgh Penguins) - Dupuis' career high is 48 points, which happened in the pre-lockout years when scoring was down considerably. He's not going to bust out and get 70 points or anything, as he only had 15 points in 62 games last year with Atlanta. But 12 in 16 games with Pittsburgh. The difference? Sidney Crosby. Dupuis is slated to skate with Crosby again this year and could get you around 45-50 points quite easily.

6.) Fredrik Modin (LW, Columbus Blue Jackets) - Modin was, at one time, a fairly productive forward. He's struggled through injuries and poor linemates while in Columbus, but this year the reports are that he's as healthy as he's been in years and he will likely be skating with some of the most talented players in years. If 50 point wingers gotten on the cheap are of any interest to you, consider Modin.

7.) Jeff Finger (D, Toronto Maple Leafs) - While the rest of the hockey world still asks "WTF!?!?!!?" to the Finger signing, you should pay attention to what kind of ice time he gets. He will likely kill your +/- if your league counts that, but he's also getting paid the kind of money that might land him on the power play. And yeah...its the Toronto power play, but that could still mean 35 points or so.

8.) Martin Hanzal (C, Phoenix Coyotes) - The Coyotes are a vastly improved team and Hanzal had a pretty strong rookie year last year. Sure, he's probably behind Jokinen, Mueller and Turris on the depth chart at centre, but there is a good chance Mueller gets moved to a wing with Jokinen and Doan, and Hanzal is a talented scorer that could force his way onto a wing on the second line. If so, he could be worth a look....if not.....that's why you don't draft people on this list (unless you're in a keeper league!)

9.) Chuck Kobasew (RW, Boston Bruins) - As a warning, I've been a huge Kobasew fan since his days in junior. I've always assumed he would be a very productive player at the NHL level. Well....I'm still waiting. If he stays healthy, he should see more time this year on one of the top two lines with either Savard or a hopefully healthy Bergeron. Expect a boost in production from the 39 points he scored last year.

10.) Erik Ersberg (G, Los Angeles Kings) - In most leagues, every starting goalie and every important back-up will likely be owned. It usually leaves the waiver wire bare of good goaltending options. Ersberg has a fairly decent shot (40-50%) of being number 1a in LA. Yeah...its LA, but he probably is on your wire and he's probably going to play more than 20-30 games. If you're desperate, he might be worth a gamble. Especially considering LA has some great young players and could be a vastly improved team by as early as this season.

One Year Hockey Pool Draft Results!

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 22:42:00 +0000

So far, my goal of updating this place with any sort of regularity is a massive failure. But we'll keep trying.

A couple of weekends ago I had both of my hockey drafts. The afternoon was my regular one year pool, while in the evening was my keeper pool. You'd think that a day full of hockey drafts and pizza and X-Box and Entourage would be one of the greatest days ever, but after the dust had settled I was completely beat.

Anyways, I wanted to go over my thought process on my one year pool to share some ideas on strategies and the whatnot.

Since last year my team trainwrecked out of the gate (I was stifled by Semin, Demitra, McCabe, Justin Williams and Kevin Bieksa's ability to stay healthy early on, combined with the inability for Kipprusoff and Backstrom to not suck between the pipes) but finished fairly strong, I won the consolation round and, as per league rules, had the option to pick where I selected in the draft. I did take something away from last season, which is to never underestimate the value of depth.

I immediately thought of taking one of the top 2 picks to get Crosby or Ovechkin. Then I thought about maybe taking a mid-round pick and grabbing Brodeur or Heatley and having a better pick in the 2nd round. Then I toyed with the idea of drafting last and getting back to back picks of elite players. Ultimately I decided to map it out and see what kind of talent drops there were. I found that there were about 19 players I liked as first round type talents. That made it very easy and I decided to take the 2nd pick. This ensured me one of the big 2, while also guaranteeing I got one of my guys with my 2nd pick as well. It also solved the dilemma of having the first pick: Crosby or Ovechkin. They're fairly equal in my books, though I'd slightly prefer Ovechkin in our pool format (LW and he gets lots of shots).

So lets take a round by round look at what happened:

First Round: Sidney Crosby (C) - I was hoping Crosby would go 1st overall so I could nab Ovechkin due to his left-wingedness, but alas Ovie was selected first overall (after the guy tried trading the first overall pick in order to move up in the 4th round....which didn't seem to make any sense to me). I quickly grabbed Crosby, who is obviously the next best player in the league. I hate grabbing centres early but...well....its Crosby.

Second Round: Joe Thornton (C) - Uhh....what did I just say about centres? I was totally set on taking a goalie with this pick and the 2nd goalie on my board (Lundqvist) just about fell to me (taken just before my pick). After Lundqvist was gone, my first tier goalies were all gone so I quickly browsed the other positions and noticed that, for some reason, Joe Thornton was still available. Since Thornton is a 90-100 point player and since I'm a huge Thornton fan, I completely abandoned my centre dodging mantra and scooped him up. I mean...hey...it's Joe Thornton with the 19th pick in the draft!

Third Round: Marty Turco (G) - I definitely had to grab a keeper here because it was going to be a long wait for my next pick. Turco was the top goalie in my 2nd tier and was a pretty obvious choice. I really like the looks of the Dallas team this year and Turco is a workhorse that has stayed healthy, so this is a pretty safe lock for 35 or so wins and solid rate stats.

Fourth Round: Mike Green (D) - This was my mistake of the draft. I made a quick mental error, not taking enough time to think about what I was doing and it might end up really costing me. I wanted to grab a 2nd goalie and top D-man. Green was at the top of my 2nd tier of d-men, while Carey Price was at the top of my 3rd tier of goalies. Except I didn't really consider Price a 3rd tier goalie...I considered him somewhere between a 2nd and 3rd tier goalie. I took Green, not realizing that the guy that had back-to-back picks before my next one HAD to take a goalie and sure enough he took Price. Don't get me wrong, I like Green, but there isn't much difference between him and Brian Campbell and I surely would have gotten one of those 2 in the fifth round.

Fifth Round: Brendan Morrow (LW) - I thought of grabbing my 2nd goalie here, but noticed that my third tier of goalies was long and a pretty interchangeable bunch so I decided I could wait and still get one with my next pick. Morrow is probably one of the more underrated players because he's going to get 70-80 points, but also help out a bunch in PIMs and +/-. He also helps fill a tough-to-fill LW slot.

Sixth Round: Teemu Selanne (RW) - Selanne surprisingly got very little love this year in either of my pools. He's still an 80 point player and to get an 80 point RW at this stage in the draft is a steal. Right wing is pretty shallow this year and if you don't get in on them soon enough, you'll suffer from the severe drop in talent after the first 12 or so. This might be my favorite pick of the draft.

Seventh Round: Andrei Markov (D) - I planned on taking a goalie here but goalies were staying on the board and I had enough third tier goalies left on my list that I was pretty sure I could wait for things to come back around to me again. Making this decision easier was the fact Markov was still around, who I had ranked up there with Green and Campbell. Nice pick here, but also makes my Green pick look even that much poorer.

Eighth Round: Nathan Horton (RW) - I was going G/RW with these next two picks and noticed the guy with back-to-back picks between my picks already had two goalies so I felt pretty safe passing on Cam Ward here (the last third tier goalie on my list) and taking Horton. I love Horton this year because he's going to be the go to guy in Florida and I think he can handle it. He also adds some PIMs to the mix and helps shore up that last RW slot for me before the perilous RW talent drop.

Ninth Round: Cam Ward (G) - As mad at myself as I was about the Green/Price fiasco, I couldn't have really asked for a better plan B. I'm not huge on Ward but I don't think he's that much different from the Nik Backstrom's and Jose Theodore's of the world and I was able to nab him as late as I possibly could have. I think Carolina will have a solid team and he should rack up enough wins to make my goalies good enough.

Tenth Round: Bryan McCabe (D) - I bounced back and forth on whether McCabe was a 2nd or 3rd tier D this year, so to get him this late is a nice little roll of the dice. If he stays healthy, he should be okay manning the Panthers power play (it can't be any worse than Toronto!) and he also contributes in the PIM category, which is important considering the players I was targetting in later rounds. If he busts...meh...I'm only out a 10th rounder.

Eleventh Round: Patrik Elias (LW) - I wanted to grab a LW here just to shore up my starting line-up. Left wing is actually much deeper this year than it has been in the past and there were a lot of similar type players here. I ultimately went with Elias becuase he does have 80 point potential still and last year he struggled and still put up 55 points. He also might end up leading my team in shots.

Twelfth Round: Kristian Huselius (LW) - Speaking of similar type left wings....I was really surprised to see Huselius slide to this spot. I'm not entirely sold on him but he did put up 66 points last year despite spending an awful lot of time in Mike Keenan's doghouse. The move to Columbus won't kill his stats because he'll be lining up with Rick Nash and he'll probably get alot more ice time. A very nice third left wing to have.

Thirteenth Round: Mats Sundin (C) - At this point in the draft it gets very hard to predict what will happen and there begin to be ALOT of similar type players. It makes a lot of sense to grab a risky player with a ton of upside that people have been avoiding at this point. I grabbed Sundin because he was easily the most talented player on the board and he also seems, to me anyways, the most sure bet of all the question marks that were out there. And with Crosby and Thornton, I don't NEED Sundin to play anytime soon, though he would slot very nicely into a UTIL spot.

Fourteenth Round: Andrej Meszaros (D) - There were still a handful of decent defensemen available and I needed a fourth one so I nabbed Meszaros here. I think he's a lock for about 40 points and some PIMs, but he also has the potential for about 50 points manning a pretty good Lightning power play.

Fifteenth Round: Brian Gionta (RW) - With Selanne getting up there in age, I wanted a solid back-up right wing and Gionta scored 40 goals just a couple of years ago. He was mediocre last year but I really think Elias and Gionta are going to have bounce back seasons.

Sixteenth Round: J.M. Liles (D) - I had Liles just behind Meszaros on my rankings and figured here was as good as time as any to grab a back-up d-man. Especially considering Liles would be a starter on a lot of teams. He suffered through a horrible season last year and still managed 32 points.

Seventeenth Round: Patrice Bergeron (C) - From everything I've read, Bergeron is pretty much back 100% from his injury last season. If so, its hard to argue with grabbing a 75 point player in the 17th round.

Eighteenth Round: Patrick O'Sullivan (C) - Sully should probably pick-up LW eligibility at some point, which gives him even more value. He seems primed for a breakout season this year after a strong finish last year and 65-70 points aren't out of the question. Another great late-round value pick if you ask me.

Nineteenth Round: Kris Letang (D) - This was an educated sleeper pick. I knew Whitney was out for a few months and it looked like Gonchar was going to miss a bit of time. With Gonchar now out for 4-6 months, Letang is an absolute steal here. He'll be quarterbacking a power play unit that includes Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and with that might actually be my third or fourth best d-man.

Twentieth Round: Drew Stafford (RW) - Never a bad idea to stock up on solid right wings this year and Stafford should be in line for about 50 or so points, with potential for more if he makes a leap this year.

Twenty-first Round: Ty Conklin (G) - Osgood's owner dropped the ball by letting Conklin go undrafted to this point. With Ward and Turco being pretty consistent and healthy in the past, I put off drafting a third goalie. Conklin was a player I was quietly targetting because Osgood always seems to battle injuries and/or struggle with play and it would not be out of the question for Conklin to pick up quite a few starts. And when those starts are for Detroit, Conklin could become a top 15 goalie.

Twenty-second Round: Josh Harding (G) - Funny thing....I was also quietly targetting Harding because there is a good chance he could get alot of starts this year and Minnesota is a nice team for your goalie to be starting for. It also so happens that the Osgood owner in our league owned Backstrom as his other goalie....so now both of his handcuffs (and arguably the two most important ones in the league this year) are on my roster. This was a great pick based solely on bargaining power on a future trade, let alone Harding's potential.

Twenty-third Round: Fabian Brunnstrom (LW) - I really liked my team for the most part and I also liked my depth so I decided to take a chance on the highest upside player left. I don't anticipate much from him, but you never know and my roster is set up such that I can afford to drop him for someone else if need be. (Which I ended up doing after someone dropped Chris Higgins).

Recap

Centre - Thornton, Crosby, Sundin, Bergeron, O'Sullivan

Easily the best in the league. And if Sundin returns....WOW! The nice thing is we have two forward slots and a UTIL slot, so Bergeron will be in the starting line-up along with Sundin, if he returns.

Left Wing - Morrow, Elias, Huselius, Higgins

Not an elite group, but also not too bad and there is some depth here. I really like Morrow and am hoping Elias or Huselius has another big season left in them.

Right Wing - Selanne, Horton, Gionta, Stafford

Selanne is just about as good as any RW not taken in the first round and I really like Horton's prospects this year. If Gionta can regain his form this is another very strong unit.

Defense - Green, Markov, McCabe, Meszaros, Liles, Letang

This isn't a really flashy unit, but I think it might end up being one of the top units in our league. I really like Green and Markov as top of the line guys and I'm left with four very good options to plug into the last two slots. This gives me lots of match-up options each week and will also cushion the blow of any potential injuries.

Goaltender - Turco, Ward, Conklin, Harding

Turco is one of my favorite goalies this year because of the strong Dallas team in front of him, but having Ward here still bugs me. Turco/Price had the potential to be the best goalie tandem in the league, whereas Turco/Ward is merely average. Oh well....I still really like this team and think that my incredible depth will pay off nicely down the road.

Keeper League Goalie Ranks

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 19:47:00 +0000

The NHL is going to be starting up soon, so its time to think fantasy again. These rankings are for roto style keeper leagues with a limited number of keepers (not one year pools or dynasty leagues). For one year leagues, just bump up the veteran players a bit and bump down the youngsters and prospects. For dynasty leagues you could probably bump up the youngsters and bump up top prospects, since it makes way more sense to own Tuukka Rask than it does to own Ty Conklin (unless you're an Osgood owner).

Tier 1

Henrik Lundqvist
Roberto Luongo

Young? Yes. Talented? Yes. These are the top two goalies you want to have in any keeper league. They're pretty much neck and neck, Luongo being the more talented one but Lundqvist being on a better team, in a better situation. I would have Luongo number one if I thought the Canucks organization was headed in a better direction.

Tier 2

Carey Price
Marc Andre Fleury
Martin Brodeur
Evgeni Nabokov
Marty Turco
J.S. Giguere
Miikka Kiprusoff

Price could very easily slide into the first tier after this season (even number one overall) but he stays in Tier 2 until he's proven himself a second time around. Fleury is up this high because he is young and he's going to have a hard time not getting wins over the next 5-10 years. Brodeur is probably the top goalie for one year pools but only has a few years left, limiting his value in keeper leagues. Nabokov, Turco, Giguere and Kiprusoff are all top level goalies in or around their primes playing on pretty good teams.

Tier 3

Ryan Miller
Niklas Backstrom
Cam Ward
Ilya Bryzgalov
Chris Osgood
Kari Lehtonen
Martin Biron
Jose Theodore
Rick DiPietro
Pascal Leclaire
Cristobal Huet

Miller and Lehtonen are probably the most talented of this group. Lehtonen would be much higher if he didn't play on such a bad team. Backstrom's value, to me, is dependent on him remaining with the Wild and their defensive system. Ward is still quite young, but I don't think he'll ever become an elite goaltender. Osgood is getting old, but will have one or two very good seasons in him in Detroit. Bryzgalov, Biron and Theodore are solid veterans playing on decent (or fast improving) teams. DiPietro and Leclaire are talented youngsters, but both have dealt with a lot of injury problems. Huet always seems to be threatened by a platoon situation wherever he goes and its no different this year in Chicago.

Tier 4

Manny Legace
Martin Gerber
Peter Budaj
Vesa Toskala
Dan Ellis
Tim Thomas
Tomas Vokoun
Ty Conklin
Josh Harding
Jonathan Bernier
Mathieu Garon
Nikolai Khabibulin
Mike Smith
Olaf Kolzig
Chris Mason
Erik Ersberg
Manny Fernandez

Legace and Mason will probably form some sort of platoon, along with Kolzig and Smith. The Senators never seem to happy with Gerber, while Budaj got in the doghouse last year in Colorado and still hasn't entirely gotten out. Toskala is a talented goalie...but he plays with the pathetic Maple Leafs. Ellis is riding on one hot stretch from last year and not much else. Tim Thomas has every factor working against him in keeping his job but he has earned it so far. Conklin would be huge if Osgood got hurt. Harding could still wrestle the job away from Backstrom, which would be a plum gig. Bernier is probably the top goalie prospect and will continue climbing this list. Ersberg is probably going to start for the Kings, but his stats won't be too pretty and he'll have a short leash. Expect Boston to give Fernandez another shot to start at some point.

Tier 5

Anterro Niittymaki
Jaroslav Halak
Andrew Raycroft
Pekka Rinne
Dwayne Roloson
Tuukka Rask
Jimmy Howard
Jason LaBarbera
Michael Leighton
Ondrej Pavelec
Semen Varlamov
Alex Auld

Niittymaki and Halak would be more than serviceable options if the guys in front of them got injured or if they were traded. Raycroft used to be a pretty solid goalie and could revive his career in Colorado, ala Jose Theodore, especially since Budaj has struggled. Rinne could overtake Ellis sooner than later. Roloson is now a back-up, but a decent one likely to play more than others. Tuukka Rask is a top prospect but behind two solid NHLers right now. Howard is another prospect that could step into a very plum gig in a year or two. LaBarbera could end up the starter in LA, while Leighton was probably the best goalie in the AHL last year. Pavelec and Varlamov are top prospects that probably won't have a starting spot open for them for a couple more years. Auld could always force a goalie controversy in Ottawa....where there always seems to be a goalie controversy.

Update

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:51:00 +0000

Leinart very well may have killed any chance of a trade happening by being a vortex of suck last night.

Football Team Update

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 17:14:00 +0000

My fantasy football league draft is tomorrow and I've just spent the past week or two totally overhauling my roster.

After our league's keeper deadline, my roster looked like this:

QB - Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart
RB - Ronnie Brown, Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor
WR - Lee Evans, Dwayne Bowe
TE - Tony Scheffler
K - Lawrence Tynes
D/ST - Washington Redskins

It's definitely not a loaded team, but I was an expansion team last year and its surprisingly decent considering the expansion draft pool consisted of rookies and players not good enough to be in the starting line-ups of a 12 team league.

Coming into this season my initial goal was to continue building around a fairly young core with the hopes of getting into the playoffs and having the kind of team that could get hot and make a run. I definitely didn't view myself as a prime contender, but thought I had enough that I could maybe get lucky.

Unfortunately the offseason happened. Jason Campbell was forced to learn a new offense. Leinart's job is somewhat shaky. Ronnie Brown is taking longer to recover from ACL surgery and was passed by Ricky Williams on the depth chart. My dumb kicker got injured. KC and Buffalo lost key components to their O-line. It was starting to look like a lost season.

My plan was never to contend this year. I wanted to be able to compete, but never expected to contend. So when it looked less likely that I would even contend, I decided to make some moves. I decided to use this season to try and accelerate the rebuilding process by moving some of my most valuable chips.

I started by dealing Mojo and my 6th and 22nd overall picks in the draft for picks 2, 9 and Jerricho Cotchery. Mojo is a good back, but its becoming apparent he's never going to be a workhorse. If he does, I fear he might be rather injury prone. However, he also has quite a bit of value right now. In exchange I received the 2nd pick, which I plan on using on Rashard Mendenhall, who has a high ceiling and plays on a run oriented offense. Cotchery is a nice throw in because he's really starting to come into his own and he now has a QB that really likes slinging the ball downfield. At the time of the trade I fully intended to use the 9th pick to take Chris Johnson from Tennesse...who I really liked. One problem: Johnson tore up the preseason and started getting hyped up and moving up draft boards.

Realizing Johnson simply wasn't falling to me at 9 anymore (especially since the guy at 7 has LenDale White), I tried moving up in the draft. I wasn't having much luck trying to package Fred Taylor and the 9th pick. Then I caught a break. A contending team was having severe bye week issues and was desperate to get his hands on a decent receiver that had a different bye week. So I moved Dwayne Bowe for the 6th pick in the draft and the team's first rounder next year. Jackpot!

My next move is to try and land a WR for Fred Taylor and or Matt Leinart. Due to the roster rules of the league, I'd have to drop Taylor to draft Chris Johnson. So if I can move Taylor for a WR, not only do I get something for Taylor, but I also pick up another roster piece without using a draft pick. And since I also kept the 9th pick, I'm looking at the possibility of drafting Aaron Rodgers if I can move Leinart. Is Rodgers a sure thing? Heck no. But he is set up to succeed in Green Bay and has a very nice ceiling there.

And that's really what these moves were all about: trying to acquire impact players for the future. Mendenhall could easily become a top 5 back. Johnson looks like a receiving beast and home run threat out of the backfield. Cotchery could very easily become a TJ Houshmandzadeh like presence at WR. Aaron Rodgers could definitely put up some big seasons with the receiving depth and O-Line in Green Bay. Will my team win this year? Probably not. But I'm building for a year or two down the road. Which is why I'm holding on to Ronnie Brown. Brown was a top 5 back last year before his injury and will likely take a year to get back to full health. Brown, Mendenhall and Johnson has the potential to be a championship backfield in a couple of years. And that's what its all about: championships.

Starting Pitching Strategy

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 05:26:00 +0000

Yeah, posting this now doesn't really help much, but I thought it would be useful to post the strategy I've used for drafting pitching the last few years in my fantasy leagues.

First off, I very rarely, if ever, draft pitching early. I load up almost exclusively on hitting and then sift through the bargain bin to piece together my pitching staff. And each year there is always a handful of excellent pitching options that go way to late in the draft, if they don't get drafted at all. It seems that even to this day, people get too hung up on win loss records and suspiciously low ERA's without looking at the statistics that do a better job of measuring a pitcher's talent.

Determining a pitcher's true talent means looking at strike-out ratios, ground ball to flyball ratios and the ability to not give up home runs and walks. The last two will help lower WHIP and ERA, which should lead to more wins, while the first one leads to strike outs. And since strike outs are a category, we should be looking at high strike out pitchers with decent command that can keep the ball in the park.

If you really want to simplify this thing for yourself, just get a list of each pitcher's K/9 (strike outs per 9 innings). The higher the K/9, the more you should be targeting that pitcher. If you factor in the other peripherals, you can weed out a few more pitchers and you should be left with a list of guys to target.

At the start of the year I basically divided my list of targeted pitchers into two. The first one was guys that were known studs that were likely to be drafted quite high and thus, I wasn't specifically targeting them unless they slipped. This list has some pretty obvious names and looked as follows:

Johan Santana
Jake Peavy
Erik Bedard
Cole Hamels
Josh Beckett
Scott Kazmir
Justin Verlander
Carlos Zambrano
Felix Hernandez
Chris Young
John Lackey
Brandon Webb
John Smoltz
Dan Haren

All those guys are pretty safe bets to post big years if they remain healthy. Of course staying healthy for any pitcher is difficult so its hard to invest an early pick in them. And to drive the point home Lackey, Smoltz, Young, Beckett, Bedard and Peavy have all spent time battling injuries this year. That's almost half the list.

My second list is comprised of guys that have similar peripheral stats as the guys above, but have question marks surrounding them. This causes them to fall late in the draft, but also means they can bring incredible value. This list looks like:

Aaron Harang - Should be on the list above but still doesn't get respect.
Tim Lincecum - Incredible talent, but young and "unproven" and there are durability concerns.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - Wasn't phenomenal last year so lot's of people soured on him in fantasy.
Francisco Liriano - Coming off Tommy John surgery.
Yovani Gallardo - Young and stats from last year look bad because of two horrible starts.
A.J. Burnett - Injury prone.
Ben Sheets - Unable to stay off the DL.
Brett Myers - Struggled at times last year.
Javier Vazquez - Still considered a bust from his days as a Yankee.
Rich Harden - The definition of injury prone.
James Shields - Some people think last year was a fluke.
Rich Hill - Fluke?
Oliver Perez - Seems to be a head case.
Ian Snell - Pitches for the Pirates.
Chad Billingsley - Young and unproven.
Clay Buchholz - See Chad Billingsley.
Ervin Santana - Bad year last year.
Zack Greinke - Pitches for the Royals, head case.
Randy Wolf - Coming off of surgery/mediocre season.
Joba Chamberlain - Started the season in the bullpen.

From the above list Harden, Billingsley, Sheets, Lincecum, Matsuzaka, Santana, Chamberlain, Greinke and Shields have all pitched rather well. I happen to own those players on most of the teams I drafted this year. Harang, Wolf, Vazquez and Burnett have been solid for the most part. The rest of the bunch has either succumbed to inury (Gallardo, Liriano) or lost effectiveness (Myers, Hill, Perez) or in the case of Buchholz, been the victim of the roster numbers crunch.

So for this list we have what is close to a 50% success rate as well. That's pretty similar to the list of well established top line starters. And players like Harden, Sheets, Lincecum, Matsuzaka and Chamberlain all have elite-level potential when healthy.

Taking a bunch of fliers on these types of pitchers works well in mixed leagues because if you lose a couple to the injury bug, there are usually serviceable options on the waiver wire. And in the case of elite pitchers like Harden and Sheets, even if they only stay healthy for the first few months, they still provide lots of strike outs and keep your WHIP and ERA nice and low. If they get injured again you can cut them and not worry about the high draft pick you wasted on them.

The strategy does not work quite so well in deep leagues or AL/NL only leagues. In those leagues, the waiver wire depth is far poorer and you want to focus on reliable pitchers that are most likely to last the season without any issues. That's when a guy like Roy Halladay becomes a lot more valuable.

Filling Out My All Star Ballots

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 16:58:00 +0000

We can naturally assume the voting public, with all their ballot stuffing, homerism, and general casualness when filling out the ballot ("Derek Jeter was good all those other years so surely he must be good this year" type logic), is going to screw up the All Star ballot. Sadly, they'd still probably do better than the Baseball Writer's Association of America would do.

I suppose one could debate the meaning of the word All Star. Should it go to the players have the best current season? Should it be based on the last couple years? Or should it simply be the biggest stars in the game. For my ballot, I base it largely on what a player has done this season, with their past performance used to make the decision between close calls. I do not go by name recognition.

Let's see what we get.

AL

Catcher - Joe Mauer (0.852 OPS): Not a whole lot of competition. Mauer has finally hit some dingers and has outhit his closest competitor (Dioner Navarro (0.802)) while providing solid defense. Victor Martinez could have challenged had his power not mysteriously disappeared and he ended up on the DL.

First Base - Kevin Youkilis (0.917 OPS): I'm surprised, too. But in a down year for first basemen in the AL, the Greek God of Walks continues to get on base and has hit for decent power this year. He also brings a very good glove to the position, which gives him the nod over Justin Morneau (0.864) or Jason Giambi (0.947).

Second Base - Ian Kinsler (0.916 OPS): Kinsler is breaking out in a big way this year, hitting for the average and power that was expected of him a couple years ago. The fact that he has added 23 stolen bases gives him the edge over Brian Roberts (0.850) and Dustin Pedroia (0.817).

Third Base - Alex Rodriguez (0.999 OPS): Simply the best third baseman (and arguably player) on the planet. Excellent hitting with solid defense...the race isn't even close. The next best 3B in the AL might be a rookie, Evan Longoria of Tampa Bay.

Shortstop - Michael Young (0.757 OPS): AL shortstops suck. You could go with one of Derek Jeter, Jhonny Peralta, Michael Young, Bobby Crosby or Orlando Cabrera, though none are great choices. Jeter and Peralta are defensive liabilities, while Crosby and Cabrera are slick with the glove but suffer on offense. I'll go with Young, just because he's outhitting Jeter while providing similar to better defense.

Outfield - Josh Hamilton (0.914 OPS), Milton Bradley (1.051 OPS), JD Drew (0.976 OPS): Seriosly....that's what probably should be your AL outfield. Hamilton might be the story of the year, being a legit triple crown threat after being completely out of baseball two years ago with drug addiction. Bradley would have to be confined to LF because of his defense, but the short fused Ranger is quietly having a tremendous season. Drew went from being the most hated Red Sox player last year to probably their best.

Designated Hitter: Jason Giambi (0.947 OPS): The average is down, which makes it appear as though it's another mediocre season for Giambi, but he's drawing lots of walks and hitting the snot out of the ball and if you can get him off the defensive side of the field, all the better.

NL

Catcher - Geovany Soto (0.900 OPS): Soto has faded a bit, but the rookie backstop is a superior defensive player that is hitting on par with two other very good candidates, Brian McCann and Russel Martin. Luckily Tim Lincecum is on fire right now, meaning Bengie Molina won't be the token Giants player and cost one of these three players their spot.

First Base - Lance Berkman (1.118 OPS): Wow....the NL is as deep at 1B as the AL is thin. Berkman gets the nod over Pujols (1.095 OPS) and Adrian Gonzalez (0.871 OPS in the worst hitter's park in the universe). I would probably go with Pujols based on the fact that, well, its Pujols, but Berkman has somehow managed to steal 12 bases on top of everything.

Second Base - Chase Utley (0.990 OPS): Utley gets the nod ahead of Dan Uggla (0.995 OPS) simply because Utley has hit like this the last three seasons and plays vastly superior defense.

Thrid Base - Chipper Jones (1.136 OPS): Chipper is hitting the ball for average (flirting with .400) and power and if it weren't for the inevitable injuries, he'd be in the midst of one of the finest seasons we've seen since Bonds' prime.

Shortstop - Hanley Ramirez (0.939 OPS): Ramirez hits for average, power and has excellent speed on the basepaths (21 SB). Not even close, really, though Miguel Tejada is somehow right on his heels in the voting.

Outfield - Ryan Braun (0.851 OPS), Pat Burrell (0.999 OPS), Jason Bay (0.911 OPS): A lot of different ways to go here. Nate McLouth, Carlos Lee, Matt Holliday and Corey Hart all deserve some love, but Burrell and Bay are having excellent seasons and Braun was an absolute beast last year and has recently turned things up a notch to make up for a slow start. Yes, I realize Matt Holliday has excellent numbers again and was an MVP candidate last year, but I strongly believe his numbers crash if he doesn't play his home games at Coors field.

Designated Hitter - Albert Pujols (1.095 OPS): Because it took a ridiculous start to the season by Berkman to keep him out of the line-up.

Buy Low/Sell High/The Hold Steady

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Sun, 04 May 2008 17:00:00 +0000

Buy Low

Ryan Howard - Assuming you aren't deluding yourself into Howard being a .280-.290 hitter, now is a good time to inquire about the big power bat.

David Ortiz - Ortiz is showing signs of life and it would be hard to believe he has fallen this far off a cliff. It's just a slump.

Justin Verlander - Just got dropped in my league and I happily picked him up. His WHIP is reasonable, though the strike outs are down. He should eventually put things together and dominate.

Chad Billingsley - His 5.20 ERA is masking his phenomenal 40 K's in 27 2/3rds innings. Look for the ERA and WHIP to continually shrink as the season wears on, while Billingsley continues to rack up K's.

Robinson Cano - Cano isn't really striking out that much, so it leads me to believe that he's having bad luck with balls he makes contact with. This, after two straight years of flukishly above average luck with balls in play. Expect him to settle into being a .280-.290 hitter. (Cano actually sits on the waiver wire in my league but I can't pick him up because I have some kid named Chase Utley in my 2B slot.)

Sell High

Chipper Jones - Chipper, or Larry as his mom calls him, can rake. And he is raking. His numbers will come down, but they will still be good. However, Larry struggles to stay healthy and with no DH to buy some rest, will eventually see some time on the DL. Now would be a good time to quietly shop him around to see what you can get.

Troy Percival - Injury prone closer. For the Devil Rays. Make sure you point out his 0.00 ERA to trade partners.

Fausto Carmona - He had a big season last year and a reasonable start to this season but there are lots of things indicating a big time implosion is on the way. First off, he doesn't strike many batters out and he's giving up way more hits and walks than suggested by his ERA.

Albert Pujols - This depends on how bad you think his injury is and how good you think the Cardinals are. My thinking is the Cards will be out of contention in a few months and Pujols may elect to get surgery out of the way early to prepare for next year. Sell while he's still healthy.

Cliff Lee - Obviously. He's nowhere near this good.

Hold Steady

Carlos Beltran - Not much you can do if you own him. Numbers aren't good to start the season, meaning you can't really trade him, though with his injury concerns I wouldn't want to trade too much for him, either.

Travis Hafner - Spronk doesn't look good up there right now. At this point all you can do is hold on and hope he gets his swing back.

Tim Lincecum - He's 100% legit and may still get 13-14 wins in spite of his teammates.

C.C. Sabathia - You can't trade for him because he still has too much (perhaps undeserved) name recognition. And you can't trade him if you own him because you invested too high a pick and won't get enough return.

Fantast Baseball Preview 2008: Shortstops

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 02:06:00 +0000

I lead off with this: you know you have a poor manager of your baseball club when it takes an injury to your starting shortstop to force the manager to even consider playing the vastly superior player at that position. This is what has happened in Cincinnati, where it looked as if Dusty Baker had Alex Gonzalez (the black one) inked in as the starting shortstop, despite the presence of the MUCH better Jeff Keppinger in the organization. Keppinger brings some pop and a good average to a weak position and although not yet draftable in standard leagues, makes a great sleeper to keep an eye on.

Baker is an incompetent fool, abusing his starting pitchers and focusing on unimportant secondary skills like speed and not striking out instead of looking at things like the ability to not get out and to hit for power. Baker also has a penchant for playing washed up veterans over up and coming youngsters, which could really kill the potential of top prospects like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. It's obvious Bruce is likely going to be blocked, as the Reds signed Corey Patterson (a vastly inferior player), while its entirely likely Votto will lose a lot of time to Scott Hatteberg, which does not bode well for the Reds' success this year. I can't, for the life of me, understand why the Reds brought in Baker when they have so many youngsters knocking on the door to get some playing time in the majors.

As for the shortstop position in regards to fantasy, I approach the position with one word in mind: speed. Shortstop is where I try and add a speedster, and there is nobody faster than Jose Reyes. I like Reyes as the first shortstop off the board because of his tremendous speed. I like him even more than the more popular Hanley Ramirez this year, mainly because there are fewer health concerns and Reyes plays on a better team.

If Jimmy Rollins could repeat his season from last year, I'd pencil him in with Reyes and Ramirez. However, I expect a decline because his peripheral stats suggest he was playing well over his head. He's still a valuable player with his combination of speed and power, just not as safe.

After these three come a group of solid, yet rather uninspiring options. These guys won't hurt you, but they don't provide the speed I look for from my shortstop. They are: Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, Troy Tulowitzki, Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy, Michael Young and Edgar Renteria. They all have some combination of power and/or average and are useful, but I usually look elsewhere.

The lower tier speed options are what I'm usually looking at in drafting a shortstop if I don't take Ramirez/Reyes/Rollins. Later in the draft you can grab a player like Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal or Julio Lugo and help yourself out in the speed department. All of these guys also have the ability to give you double digit home runs, increasing their value. They aren't flashy or sexy names, but they definitely have value.

The position also has some intriguing later round options that might even go undrafted, yet bear watching. Stephen Drew could easily but together a 20/20 season soon. Khalil Greene has legit power, but his average may hurt you. Felipe Lopez stole 44 bases two years ago and has some pop, but may not have enough playing time. Bobby Crosby has the talent, but his health is the ultimate question mark, while Ryan Theriot can provide you with some speed, but little else.

Players to Target

Jose Reyes - Best base stealer in the game, with a little pop.

Jhonny Peralta - Going pretty late on average and will give you .280 with 25-30 homers.

Julio Lugo - Very unsexy pick, but he has speed and his average will bounce back.

Players to Avoid

Jimmy Rollins - Won't be worth the first round pick required to get him.

Michael Young - Will hit for average, but provide little else.

Miguel Tejada - I don't see this guy aging too well and he provides no speed whatsoever.

Sleepers

Felipe Lopez - If he can get the playing time, he has the speed and power numbers to be very useful.

Jeff Keppinger - See the intro.

Fantasy Baseball Preview 2008: Third Base

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 15:38:00 +0000

A-Rod. That is your first pick in the draft if he's available. He's kinda okay. He has power, average, lots of runs, lots of RBIs and can steal a few bases. If he's available with your first pick and you don't pick him, you failed.

After A-Rod comes a trio of players that will be selected within the first two rounds. David Wright is a 30/30 threat that should probably be the second 3B off the board. After him, I prefer Ryan Braun over Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera will likely be picked ahead of Braun but Cabrera's power potential is limited, his weight concerns me, and he's not going to steal bases. Braun crushed pitching last year and can probably swipe 20 bases over a full season.

The second tier of 3B consists of Aramis Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, and Garrett Atkins and arguably Chone Figgins. Ramirez and Zimmerman have the potential to come close to first tier production, though I'd be cautious of Zimmerman as he's still young and developing into his power. Chipper was a monster last year when healthy, and that's the problem with him...staying healthy. He slugged .604, so the power is definitely still there. Atkins is the wild card because I never thought he was anything and I really think his numbers are Coors inflated. That being said, fantasy doesn't factor in home ballpark, so he should be a fairly safe bet...just temper your power expectations. I personally don't like taking Figgins as a third basemen because investing on speed in the outfield and middle infield positions comes across as a better roster management technique.

After this, things get pretty cloudy. Adrian Beltre, Hank Blalock, Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Lowell, Alex Gordon, Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez are all in the mix. Lowell and Beltre are probably the safest bets, being relatively healthy and productive over the past few seasons. However, given the lower tier depth at 3B, I think if you're going to take players from this group you should look long and hard at Blalock or Encarnacion. Blalock has battled some nicks the last few years but was raking last year when healthy and plays in a great home ballpark. Encarnacion was a hot prospect coming up but has been jerked around a bit by the Reds (who have a tendency to do this...see Kearns, Austin and Dunn, Adam). Encarnacion finally established himself at the end of last year and, given the great hitter's park he plays in, could easily approach 30-35 HRs this year and a solid average.

Glaus, Rolen and Chavez are all extremely talented players that could still be fantasy studs, however, they are battling very long odds to stay healthy and see a significant chunk of playing time. I think Alex Gordon will be a perfectly fine hitter soon, but think it will be next year that things finally come together.

Players to Target

Ryan Braun - Could very easily outproduce Wright and be the second best 3B behind A-Rod. Don't hesitate to take him early in the second round.

Aramis Ramirez - Look for him to regain some of his power stroke if the wrist injuries are behind him. Has legit 35-40 HR power and can hit .300.

Hank Blalock - Doesn't strike me as the injury riddled type and if the injuries are behind him, he should hit .280 with 30-35 HRs.

Edwin Encarnacion - Still quite young (same age as David Wright) and if they're finally done jerking him around, he'll hit.

Players to Avoid

Miguel Cabrera - Great hitter, but not enough power or speed to be truly elite.

Chone Figgins - I don't like investing in speedy players with little other skills at a corner infield spot, especially since picking up a speedster a 2B makes so much more sense . (His average last year was a fluke).

Nomar Garciaparra - This guy is done, but he's still getting drafted. Might not even be starting if Joe Torre manages his roster properly.

Mike Lowell - A generally safe bet, his upside is fairly limited.

Sleepers

Josh Fields - Very talented youngster with a ton of power....the problem is whether he can bring his average up to continue to get playing time.

Evan Longoria - If he gets the job, he could have a good season playing on a fast improving Rays club.

Andy LaRoche - LaRoche has topped prospect lists for awhile now and should hit for good average and power at the major league level. The issue is playing time, as the Dodgers may do something stupid like play Garciaparra in front of him (this IS the same team that continues to play Juan Pierre over Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp).

Fantasy Baseball Preview 2008: Second Base

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 01:06:00 +0000

Second base has traditionally been a fantasy baseball black hole and this year is hardly an exception. There are two second basemen that stand heads and shoulders above the pack and one of them won't be 2B eligible next year in all likelihood. Those two are Chase Utley and BJ Upton.

Utley is so good and so far ahead of the rest of his position that he should be considered a top 5 pick this year. I honestly wouldn't fault anybody taking him after A-Rod. You should be tripping over yourself to grab him in the back half of the first round. If he slips to you in the 2nd, well...jackpot.

I think you have to give very serious consideration to taking one of Utley, Upton or Brandon Phillips in the first four rounds because the drop off after that point is so steep. And to be perfectly honest, I don't quite trust Phillips yet.

If you miss on one of these three, look long and hard at Brian Roberts. I don't quite trust him staying healthy over the course of the season, but he's one of the few pure speed threats at a position that traditionally can be used as a source of stolen bases. Robinson Cano is looking like an okay option, though I think his power potential is limited and he has no speed.

After this, things drop off again. That doesn't mean there isn't any talent, it's just very questionable or else comes with trade-offs. Ian Kinsler and Rickie Weeks are legitimate 20/20 threats, but will likely bring a poor average. Howie Kendrick and Placido Polanco should provide a nice average, but lack power or speed. Jeff Kent is still a decent player but is losing pop and has no speed. Dan Uggla has lots of power but brings a bad batting average. Kaz Matsui is a decent source of steals and can be gotten fairly cheaply.

Two younger players to keep a close eye on and consider drafting later are Kelly Johnson or Aaron Hill. Johnson could develop into a 20/20 threat and Hill is looking to be a lighter version of Chase Utley. After these players are all gone, pickings get slim with players like Akinori Iwamura, Mark Ellis, Dustin Pedroia, Freddy Sanchez, Ryan Theriot and Orlando Hudson. You probably don't want to end up with one of these guys.

Your goal at 2B should you miss on Utley/Upton/Phillips should be to draft a player that helps a need. If you have lots of speed in the outfield and short stop, take a Jeff Kent or Aaron Hill. If you need speed, look at Brian Roberts or Kaz Matsui.

Players to Target

Chase Utley - One of the game's better hitters at a very shallow position.

BJ Upton - Can do a bit of everything, though expect a bit of regression in batting average.

Rickie Weeks - Has power and speed and I think he can become a .280 hitter.

Aaron Hill - If you have enough speed elsewhere in your line-up, consider Hill, who should blast 20-25 HRs this year with a .290 average. He belted 17 HRs and 47 doubles last year...and as he enters his prime you should anticipate several of those doubles becoming HRs.

Players to Avoid

Robinson Cano - I'm simply not a believer and he doesn't do enough in the speed department to justify his lofty draft position.

Placido Polanco - The average is nice but he simply has no power or speed.

Dustin Pedroia - Same as Polanco and the amount of hype in the press is really inflating his fantasy value.

Luis Castillo - Only value is in his speed and his constant leg injuries have sapped him of that.

Freddy Sanchez - Only skill is the ability to hit for average. Add in the fact he plays on a bad offense, and you end up with poor all around counting stats.

Sleepers

Marcus Giles - If he can wrestle the starting job from Jayson Nix, he could have a resurgence in the hitter friendly confines of Coors Field.

Mark Ellis - Always an injury concern, Ellis showed he has 20 HR pop in his bat and could reach double digit steals. Not bad for a 2B going undrafted most of the time.

Fantasy Baseball Preview 2008: First Base

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 03:54:00 +0000

A strange thing is occurring this year in fantasy baseball. For the first time in like ever, first basemen is not ridiculously deep. In fact, one could argue that first base is actually rather shallow, which seems ludicrous on the surface. However, when one scratches at the surface, a few things become immediately noticeable.

First off, the two safest bets at the position are a slugger who will struggle to hit .270 this year (Ryan Howard), and a .280 hitter with 35-40 HR power (Mark Teixeira). After that, its a field full of question marks.

Pujols would be a top three selection if there weren't severe injury concerns clouding his season. One cannot justify risking their top pick on such a dicey proposition this year. Also in the top tier of first basemen lies Prince Fielder, a player I loved last year because he was getting no love. This year is quite the opposite, as he is going as early as the first round, which is too early, in my opinion. Fielder will always be a health risk because of his weight and I think last year was his career year.

Finally, the last member of my top tier is Lance Berkman. Berkman is a fairly safe bet this year, but lacks the power potential of the players mentioned before him. I strongly believe that it would be in your best interest to try and grab one of the five players mentioned so far. My focus has been on trying to land Teixeira or Berkman in the 3rd to 4th rounds if at all possible.

If you miss the boat on one of these five, you're left with a group of talented, yet flawed players in Justin Morneau, Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, and Adrian Gonzalez. The issues here range from health (Lee), home field (Gonzalez), inconsistency (Konerko, Morneau) to questions of whether he can do it again (Pena). Of this group, I prefer Pena and Morneau because of their potential ceilings.

Depending on your league, you may look at grabbing another 1B to fill a UTIL spot or what have you and the best remaining options are probably Adam LaRoche, James Loney, Billy Butler, Carlos Delgado and Joey Votto (if he wins a spot).

Players to Target:

Mark Teixeira - If you can land him in the third round, look for a .290 average and 35+ HRs.

Lance Berkman - Seems to be slipping quite a ways in many drafts and provides good value as the last sure bet before the drop.

Carlos Pena - Look for the numbers to fall, but not enough to justify the lack of respect he's getting in fantasy leagues.

Players to Avoid:

Albert Pujols - Too risky for the pick it'll cost you to select him.

Prince Fielder - Look for a drop in production and his pudgy figure to take a toll on his health.

Todd Helton - This guy is unlikely to see 20 HRs again in his career, yet people still pay for the name.

Sleepers:

Billy Butler - Big time prospect looked very impressive in his debut last year.

Joey Votto - Big time power potential if he can secure a job. With Dusty Baker as his manager, this may prove difficult.

Casey Kotchmann - Kotchmann is the kind of 1B that won't hurt you if you have enough power at other positions, though he could develop into 25-30 HR type power.

Fantasy Baseball Preview 2008: Catchers

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 02:48:00 +0000

Instead of posting my usual player rankings lists, I'm just going to go over a brief discussion on each position and look at draft strategies and whom to target (and whom to avoid.)

Catcher is the position I seem to completely neglect this year. Aside from Victor Martinez, I don't see any catchers that I truly trust. And if you want to land Martinez, its going to cost you a very early pick.

After someone has reached for Martinez, we're left with the next 4 (in no particular order): McCann, Mauer, Martin and Posada. I find it hard to use an early pick on any of these guys because they all have warts. Mauer will struggle to stay healthy, McCann still hasn't separated himself that much from the next tier and Posada is an aging catcher that had a flukey batting average last year. I think the safest bet is Martin, who will get you some HRs and SBs, but I don't think his early draft position justifies taking him, considering the catching options later in the draft.

The importance of ranking player in tiers allows you to judge where to draft players, and never has that been so evident with catchers this year. If you miss one of the 5 players listed above, you can make the case to completely ignore drafting a catcher until the very end of your draft. Why? Let's look at my second tier (in no particular order):

Kenji Johjima
Jason Varitek
Ramon Hernandez
Bengie Molina
Ivan Rodriguez
Jarrod Saltalamacchia

If you do some quick math, you'll see that there are 11 catchers listed in the top two tiers. When you consider that most people play in 10 team leagues and very few people ever draft a back-up catcher, you'll see that you can get a perfectly serviceable catcher with your last pick, using your other picks to address other needs. All of the guys listed above are going to hit around .270-.280 and get you close to 15 HRs. Hernandez and Saltalamacchia probably have the highest upsides, but also come with the biggest question marks. Even if you still miss on these 11, guys like Geovany Soto and JR Towles are some intriguing young catchers with high upsides that would be worth a gamble.

So the moral of the story is: In 2008, there is no need drafting a catcher early, unless one of the top 5 are available at the right price. Otherwise, just wait until the very end to fill the need.

Guys to Target:

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Will likely see time at C and 1B to keep his promising bat in the line-up. Also plays in hitter friendly Texas.

Ramon Hernandez - If healthy, could hit like a first tier catcher.

Victor Martinez - Heads and shoulders above the rest and probably the safest pick. Also likely to be too expensive on draft day.

Guys to Avoid:

Jorge Posada - Catchers with Posada's age and workload do not tend to age well. He also had a ridiculously high BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

Ivan Rodriguez - Don't draft this fading player based on his name.

Bengie Molina - Will be a decent option but will likely kill you in runs and the RBIs will likely drop due to the crapstorm that is San Fran's offence this year.

Carlos Ruiz - Being touted as a sleeper, I find it hard to put too much faith behind 29 year old catchers that have never been known for their hitting in the past.

Sleepers:

Geovany Soto - Put up stellar numbers last year in the minors, but it was also the first season he hit well. May actually be overrated a bit right now.

J.R. Towles - If he wrestles away the starting job from hacktastic Brad Ausmus he may have a Russell Martin-lite type season.

Ryan Doumit - If he can find a spot as a starting OF in Pittsburgh, he could provide some very nice numbers.

Thoughts on Fantasy Hockey

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Fri, 28 Sep 2007 01:15:00 +0000

Fantasy hockey (roto-style fantasy hockey, anyways....straight points leagues are for little ninnies who still get tucked in my their mothers) is the last fantasy sport that is relatively unbesmirched by the so-called "experts," which is why I love it so much.

Fantasy baseball and football are so well covered and with such depth by rather popular media sources that any Tom, Dick or Harry (because we all know that all Toms, Dicks and Harrys are dumbasses) can pick up a football pool guide, spend about 45 minutes reading a site like Rotoworld and have just as good a draft as the Brad that spent a couple of hours researching, ranking players, making up a fancy spreadsheet and devising a formula. A simple formula, but a formula nonetheless.

Hockey? Well, you get TSN running a 4 team mock draft with 7 player rosters, which is about as in depth as reviewing an album based on its front cover. No, fantasy hockey is the last sport where the dumbasses still congregate at the bottom of the standings each season and the cream always rises to the top. There is a reason I've finished top 2 the last three seasons!

There are no sleepers in football or baseball. The moment a player gets labeled a sleeper, I can guarantee you somebody is going to draft him way too early. Think Vincent Jackson from the Chargers going 4 rounds ahead of Deion Branch this year. But a hockey sleeper is still a sleeper. Now that I've finished my two most important drafts, I'm willing to divulge my hockey "sleepers" and "busts".

Sleepers

Petr Sykora - The guy SHOULDN'T be a sleeper but he still gets no respect in drafts. He's only playing on a line with Sidney Crosby this year. And it wasn't that long ago that Sykora was a 70-80 point player in Jersey.

Manny Legace - The Blues made significant improvements defensively when Andy Murray took over head coaching duties and look for that to continue into this season. Legace has always been a "good enough" goalie and he makes an excellent number three or even number two in deeper leagues. Much better than Manny Fernandez.

Shane O'Brien - Although he gets you some great PIM numbers, he's not your average one-dimensional goon. He is capable of putting up 30-35 points as well...not bad from a d-man. His value also got a boost with the recent injury to Dan Boyle....in that he's likely going to get some time on a powerplay with Lecavalier, St. Louis and Richards.

David Legwand - Look, this guy was having a pretty good season last year playing on Nashville's top line before they acquired Peter Forsberg. He was still able to produce in a reduced role. Legwand should be back up on the top line and will produce on a Nashville team that won't be near as bad as anybody is predicting.

Chris Mason - Speaking of Nashville, what about their goalie. Mason is getting drafted well after the second tier of goalies, even though he clearly belongs in that group. The back-up this year, Dan Ellis, is not much of a threat to steal starts so expect a ton of games from Mason, who was arguably better than Vokoun last year.

Mark Streit - Offensively minded d-man who has moved up to play forward frequently with Montreal. Streit's not going to help you in many other categories, but he's not being drafted in most leagues and is very capable of 40+ points.

Nik Antropov - The ultimate sleeper. Most people simply hate this guy for reasons that are completely unjustified. The only knock you can make on Antropov is that he is injury prone. There is absolutely no denying his talent and if he stays healthy, look for a big year from him on the Sundin/Blake line. This guy is either going to be undrafted in your league or available for next to nothing.....he's the Rex Grossman of fantasy hockey...only with talent.

Keep an eye on:

Jaroslav Hlinka - Czech league scoring leader last year is good friends with Milan Hejduk (which is why Colorado signed him). He's had a great camp playing on a line with Stastny and Hensick in camp and if he stays on this line when Hejduk returns he could have a very good season.

Nathan Paetsch - Hard-nosed d-man in Buffalo has the skill set required to QB the powerplay. It's still not determined who will get the gig, but if Paetsch does he should be a good all around d-man.

Ryan Callahan - This kid is likely stuck on the third line in New York but he is capable of significant production in every single category if the opportunity becomes available on one of the scoring lines.

Busts: These guys aren't so much "busts" as they are guys to avoid because you'll have to draft them far too early if you want them

Carey Price - First off, it is extremely unlikely that Price takes over the number one job in Montreal. Secondly, Montreal was a brutal defensive team last year that didn't bring in much personnel to change that. So even if Price steals the top job, he's going to have a below average GAA and save percentage. Do yourself a favor and wait a round or two later and take Legace.

Andy McDonald - Kunitz isn't nearly as good a player as the stat sheet said last year and losing Selanne as a linemate is really going to hurt. The way Bertuzzi/Getzlaf/Ryan played, it would not be surprising if they become the top line before too long. You can easily pass on McDonald and grab a David Legwand later on.

Andrei Markov - Funny thing that I own him in a league! He just slipped ridiculously far. The thing with Markov is that he no longer has Sheldon Souray's booming shot to set up for power play one timers, which is where he made his bread and butter. He's going to be a decent option, he's just slipped down a tier or two from last year.

Erik Cole - Very injury prone and even when he is healthy, he never produces as well as you think he does. Do yourself a favor and avoid the headache by passing on this guy in your draft.

Dominik Hasek - Why waste a decent pick on a guy likely to miss 30-40 games when you can pick up somebody like Chris Mason with a similar pick?

Manny Fernandez - Avoid like the plague. Fernandez looked done last year and he was playing in a very goalie friendly system. Boston is not...so...goalie friendly. I refused to draft him even though I needed a third goalie and he was the last sure starter left. I waited until the last round and took Marc Denis...that's how much I'd avoid this guy.

Rick Nash - Unless you're simply looking for goals, look elsewhere. Nash is a big name that really only produces in two categories: shots on goal and goals. His +/- will hurt you and he doesn't get too many assists, which brings down his powerplay points totals. I'd much rather have an Alexander Frolov or Paul Kariya to fill my left wing slot.

Hokcey Keeper League Ranks Part 1: Centres

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 16:59:00 +0000

With the completion of my keeper league draft, I can no reveal my keeper rankings. This is for leagues that include PIMs.

Tier 1

Sidney Crosby - Best player in the league. Oh...and young, too.
Joe Thornton - Consistently among the league's top scorers and in his prime.
Jason Spezza - Talented young center playing with a great winger.
Eric Staal - Young and good.
Vincent Lecavalier - Would be higher if he were a few years younger.

Tier 2

Pavel Datsyuk - Not quite elite, but very good.
Marc Savard - Value increases due to PIMs.
Anze Kopitar - LA looks to be a high scoring team for a very long time.
Olli Jokinen - Most underrated player in the league?
Daniel Briere - Won't match last year's numbers.
Patrick Marleau - Struggled a bit last year but should bounce back.
Brad Richards - Ditto.
Henrik Sedin - Our league values scorers over playmakers, causing Henrik to slide a bit.
Scott Gomez - Solid playmaker that doesn't get a lot of goals.
Jordan Staal - This high based more on his long term potential.

Tier 3

Patrice Bergeron - Playing in Boston hurts his +/-.
Nicklas Backstrom - Ridiculously talented yet unproven.
Jonathan Toews - Ditto.
Joe Sakic - Age is the only reason he's this low. Hard to spend a top pick on a guy you only control for a couple of years.
Patrick Elias - Lacks the silky smooth passer of years past.
Ryan Getzlaf - Love this kid. Reminds me of Mark Messier-lite.
Mats Sundin - Age prevents Mats from joining the elite centres.
Mike Cammalleri - LA will score piles of goals for years to come.
Andy McDonald - May struggle without Selanne.
Paul Stastny - I think last year was a bit of a fluke.
Chris Drury - Better NHL player than fantasy player.
Michael Nylander - Great situation, though that hasn't always meant great numbers for Nylander.

Tier 4

Nathan Horton - Another Mark Messier-lite.
Petr Sykora - Likely playing with Crosby. This might be too low if that is the case.
Martin Straka - Underrated in fantasy. Just produces year after year.
David Legwand - Production should increase with increased workload.
Derek Roy - Ditto.
Tim Connolly - If he stays healthy this will be too low. IF.
Daymond Langkow - Solid all around player.
Phil Kessel - High ceiling...questions about teammate, conditioning.
Jason Arnott - See Langkow, Daymond.
Jeff Carter - Really high potential but may not see enough playing time.
Peter Mueller - Likely centering Coyotes top line. High upside.
Peter Forsberg - Will he play? Can he stay healthy? Most importantly...is he still the same player? Too many questions to put him any higher than this.
Matthew Lombardi - Will either breakout or flop this year under Keenan.
Rod Brind' Amour - Old. Last year reeks of a fluke.
Michael Handzus - If healthy, could really surprise in LA.
Sean Horcoff - Needs a sniper on his line to have value. No...Dustin Penner isn't it.
Jarret Stoll - Overrated.

Tier 5

Pierre-Marc Bouchard - Runs hot and cold. No PIMs either.
Kyle Wellwood - Talented, but Toronto seems a bit of a fantasy mess right now.
Doug Weight - Could have one last good season. Unlikely.
Vaclav Prospal - Strange year last year, being unable to produce on a line with Lecavalier and St. Louis.
Tuomo Ruutu - Can he stay healthy? If so, may be a bargain.
Mike Comrie - Comrie stinks but will get lots of PP time.
Robert Lang - All depends on his role. Centering Havlat? Gold! If not, avoid.
Bryan Little - Should centre Kovalchuk or Hossa, which ain't a bad gig.
Mike Modano - Aging and skills declining.
Saku Koivu - Ditto.
Patrick O'Sullivan - If he were guaranteed second line ice time, would be much higher.
Joe Pavelski - Value goes as his role on the team goes.
Antoine Vermette - Sleeper if he ends up on a line with Alfredsson.
Stephen Weiss - Lots of talent but can't seem to get going.
Brad Boyes - Was last year the anamoly or two years ago?
Chris Higgins - No PIMs and playing in Montreal reduces appeal.
Jochen Hecht - Could be in line for important minutes in Buffalo.

The Value of Running Back Depth

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 13:20:00 +0000

In my prize league on ESPN, Tony Romo's HUGE game won me a week that I was trailing in quite badly. But then came 4 passing TDs and a rushing TD and all my worries were put to rest.

More concerning, however, were the injuries to both Cadillac Williams and Brandon Jacobs, both in my starting line-up. Losing two starting running backs (well...one is my flex back) can usually create roster chaos and put a team behind the eight ball for the next couple weeks. Until I looked at my bench and saw Adrian Peterson, Jerious Norwood and LenDale White sitting there.

During the draft, people couldn't believe I picked a 4th running back before my 2nd receiver, another running back before my starting QB. That's right....I picked Jerious Norwood before I picked Romo, the guy that won me the week. But my motto is that you can never have too many quality backs. Running backs have short careers and are highly injury prone. The only way to avoid a losing season is lots and lots of depth at the position. It protects you against losing two starting backs in the opening week. And if everyone stays healthy, you will usually find one team desperate for a solid back and can usually make a trade that his heavily skewed in your favor and fill another position of need.

Quick Thought on Ryan Howard

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Wed, 05 Sep 2007 04:08:00 +0000

I've know seen more than a couple people mention Ryan Howard as a bust this year in fantasy baseball. Ryan Howard has not been a bust by any stretch of the imagination. People drafting Howard in the first round of fantasy drafts this year with thoughts of him posting a .300ish batting average were delusional. Nowhere on any of his stops in the minors was he ever a good hitter for average. He has always had tremendous power and a .260 type batting average. Last year was a fluke in the batting average department and to think it was repeatable is to ignore a mountain of statistics that say otherwise. He has done exactly what I expected this year: on pace for 40+ homers, a .265-.270 average and 120+ RBI. That's nothing to sneeze at.

Fantasy Sports Etiquette

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Wed, 29 Aug 2007 02:26:00 +0000

I've seen a lot of crap go down throughout the years while playing fantasy sports, but never have I felt so wronged as I did last night.

I got home from work last night and logged onto one of my league's site in order to prepare for the draft in which I had the second pick. I had been informed by my buddy that the commish had went and made significant changes in the scoring system. This is the first failure that happened yesterday.

I don't care what kind of league you're in and what kind of wonky scoring system you have, as a commissioner you cannot go and change it one day before the draft, especially without running this by the rest of the league. For instance, I had spent a solid hour or two adjusting my rankings to the original scoring system, which did not have points per reception and did not reward passing touchdowns very much. My buddy had spent a good few hours putting together rankings for the IDP players because the scoring system did not include tackles, which tends to be pretty standard in most leagues with IDP. The commish decided to add tackles, making my buddy's rankings useless. So, by changing the scoring system the night before the draft, the commissioner has made our previous work obsolete and pretty much useles. Furthermore, this only leaves us with 24 hours to come up with new rankings and if I had any sort of event on that night I would have been screwed.

While the changing of the scoring rules can most likely be chalked up to inexperience, mismanagement and lack of organization, the other event that occurred last night cannot be. Several weeks ago the commissioner drew names out of a hat. I was fortunate enough to get the second pick. I prepared for my draft expecting to take Steven Jackson at two (unless LaDanian Tomlinson fell to me) and had actually devised a strategy with how to address my next 5 picks.

Then, THE NIGHT BEFORE THE DRAFT, the commissioner decides to RE-DRAW the draft order. That is completely ludicrous, unjustifiable and bush league. His reasoning was that some of the other owner's questioned the "legitimacy" of the previous draft orders. Yeah.....the owners that had crappy picks questioned the legitimacy of the draft order....because these guys don't have anything to gain from changing the draft order.

I've played in a lot of leagues that had rules that I didn't necessarily like but I accepted those rules and built my teams with knowledge of the rules. However, NEVER EVER has anything as bad as this ever taken place. To post an official draft order and then renege on it and come up with a new one? That, my friends, is bush league all the way. Considering that I was to actually pay money to compete I decided to exercise my only option and threaten to quit the league if the draft order changed in any way shape or form from the original draft order. There was no league vote and nobody even consulted with me to get my opinion before this went down. When I was told that the draft order was changing I promptly withdrew my team as that was the only option I had left.

I could really care less that I left them short-handed on such short notice but if crap like that is allowed to go down in a league, its clearly a league I want no part in. It was pretty bush league.....at best.

When Things Go Right!

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Mon, 27 Aug 2007 02:59:00 +0000

Today we held one of the three football drafts that I actually care about, in which I'm a expansion team in an established keeper league (the others being an ESPN money leauge and another keeper league that is starting up this year). Coming into the season I didn't have high expectations due to the structure of doling out expansion picks (all expansion teams got a bunch of draft picks AFTER everyone declared all their keepers, which was the same number of keepers in years past). However, I was able to turn those picks into a rather serviceable roster coming into the draft, trading for the following players:

QB - Matt Leinart
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew
RB - Ronnie Brown
WR - Lee Evans
TE - Heath Miller

My first pick in the draft was the 17th pick, followed by the 41st, so I didn't have much expectations for the quality of players I'd get. I was hoping to land a LenDale White type back at 17 and maybe an okay receiver at 41. After that I was planning on drafting high upside players that might develop into something for next season, when we expand the number of keepers (which is currently set as the starting line-up, no bench....next year we're adding bench players).

The draft started off with a very poor decision on behalf of the team with the first pick. They decided to trade the 1st overall pick (ie. Adrian Peterson/Marshawn Lynch/Calvin Johnson) AND Marques Colston for the 3rd and 6th overall picks. Normally when you trade down you're supposed to PICK UP talent instead of give it up (Colston). To make matters worse, he used the 3rd pick on Calvin Johnson (who I think he would have taken at 1) and at 6 he took......the Bills defense?????? Wow.

And it was picks like the Bills defense at 6 that led to the shocking availability of Julius Jones at 17. I was pretty excited about landing a solid running back here. Ecstatic, actually. And this was after I almost traded Matt Leinart to move up and take DeAngelo Williams. At the time that seemed like a good idea, but I'm glad the other team decided not to pull the trigger.

As the draft moved along, the guy beside me owned 3 of the next 4 picks and he mumbled something about wanting a back-up TE. There were 3 players that were surprisingly still on the board that I really wanted so I offered him up Heath Miller and my 41st pick for the 34th and 37th picks. Since I was at my roster limit for RB's, I took WR Mark Clayton (it was between him and Chris Chambers) at 34 and then at 37 I took my back-up QB, Jason Campbell. I was going to take a TE next at 57 since I traded my only one except Chris Chambers, who I had ranked as a Tier 1 WR of the available talent pool coming into this draft, was still on the board so I took the best player instead of the biggest need.

I then watched with an agonizing pain as teams drafted before my next pick at 66. My top TE was still on the board and eventually Tony Scheffler slipped to me at 66. I then took my top ranked available defense coming into the draft at 89 when I grabbed the Washington Redskins. Due to roster requirements I had to take a back-up TE (Visanthe Shiancoe), a back-up defense (New York Jets) and two kickers (Ryan Longwell and Billy Cundiff) to round out the draft. I like all those guys as late round roster fill-ins, especially my kickers, which both play indoors. So, after its all said and done, my final roster looks like this:

QB - Matt Leinart
QB - Jason Campbell
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew
RB - Ronnie Brown
RB - Julius Jones
WR - Lee Evans
WR - Mark Clayton
WR - Chris Chambers
TE - Tony Scheffler
TE - Visanthe Shiancoe
D/ST - Washington Redskins
D/ST - New York Jets
K - Ryan Longwell
K - Billy Cundiff

Not a championship team but it might get me to the playoffs and at that point anything can happen. I also like the future potential of this team, especially at RB and QB. I ended up ecstatic with how well this team looks considering my low expectations for the roster (which should have been deserved, had it not been for some weird picks by other teams).

Next up is my keeper draft on Tuesday and I'll be sure to post the results here. I have the second overall pick and am going Steven Jackson unless Tomlinson gets passed by for some reason.

A Money League Draft!

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Sat, 18 Aug 2007 05:38:00 +0000

Through somehow (I think its because ESPN botched fantasy baseball at the start and this was part of their way of saying sorry) I was given one free fantasy football team eligible to join a prize eligible league on ESPN. The other night I thought that I was sufficiently prepared to do the live online draft and decided to give it a whirl. Lucky for me, I won the first pick overall, so I should have a pretty legit chance at winning the league.

Here are my picks along with a brief synopsis:

1.) LaDainian Tomlinson (RB) - Owning LT2 the last several years is comparable to owning Gretzky in fantasy hockey during his prime. LT2 is going first overall in any league in which an idiot doesn't have the first pick.
2.) Brandon Jacobs (RB) - This draft was VERY RB heavy at the top (as it should be) and Jacobs was the best back left on the board. People berated me for taking a "back-up" (which Jacobs is not) this early, despite the fact the only other RBs I really had to choose from were Edgerrin James or Deuce McAllister.
3.) Chad Johnson (WR) - With Manning and Palmer already off the board, I took the best WR available to me.
4.) Roy Williams (WR) - I have Williams as a top 5 receiver this year and was very pleased to take him with the last pick in the 4th round.
5.) Cadillac Williams (RB) - Hoping for a bounce back season out of Cadillac. Like his potential upside for my flex spot.
6.) Jerious Norwood (RB) - Warrick Dunn is old, small and recovering from back surgery. Expect Norwood to emerge as the go-to option in a run heavy Falcons offense (because as if they'd let Joey Harrington air it out!).
7.) Adrian Peterson (RB) - Could gamble on a monster rookie season from Peterson with the quantity of solid backs already on my roster.
8.) Tony Romo (QB) - Was REALLY hoping to go Kitna-Branch with my back-to-back picks in 8 and 9 but both went a few picks ahead of me. Decided to settle on Romo at QB since he has so many weapons on offense.
9.) Laveraneus Coles (WR) - While I wouldn't want to rely on Coles as a starter (injury concerns), he should make a decent bye week option and emergency fill in.
10.) Chris Chambers (WR) - Chambers still has big time potential and I couldn't pass on adding so much depth to my receiving corps.
11.) Jake Delhomme (QB) - I like Delhomme if Smith stays healthy. He also gives me a decent option to consider when Romo has a tough match-up or bye.
12.) Mark Clayton (WR) - Another wide receiver that slipped that I couldn't pass up on. Picked after such receivers as Matt Jones, Mike Furrey, Isaac Bruce and DJ Hackett.
13.) Tony Scheffler (TE) - I hadn't planned on grabbing a TE yet but for whatever reason this draft was going TE crazy. 6 teams had back-up TEs drafted by this point. 6! In a 10 team league!!! I acted quick and grabbed the last serviceable TE I had on my draft board before I was left with Visanthe Shiancoe.
14.) LenDale White (RB) - The Scheffler pick cost me Tatum Bell, who I was drooling over at this point. Unfortunately he went a few picks before me and I settled on Keith Tkachuk of running backs (what..with the showing up at training camp fat and out of shape all the time).
15.) Dolphins D/ST - Forced to take a defense and kicker, I settled on a Miami defense that should be okay.
16.) Jason Hanson (K) - On a high powered offense and in a dome. Not bad for the last kicker drafted.

In a humourous moment, one owner declared his genius loudly and boldly with "The Sleeper Pick of The Draft!" and then proceeded to take Priest Holmes, who isn't even going to play football again. This was followed up two picks later with someone trying to outdo the other guy with "No, THIS is the Sleeper Pick of the Draft!" and proceeded to select Duante Culpepper, who, even if healthy, still plays for the Oakland Raiders. The next pick was Brandon Marshall and I quietly thought about how ironic that the true sleeper pick of the draft was made with absolutely no fanfare.

BHu's Fantasy Hockey Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Fri, 10 Aug 2007 00:20:00 +0000

For both baseball and football I have completed an in depth look at each position and given my fantasy rankings according to my tiering system. I have also added input on how to best approach and prepare for drafts based on both average draft position as well as my experiences participating in a number of drafts for both sports.

I will NOT be doing the same for hockey. I focus most of my fantasy sports efforts into hockey, and thus my rankings for hockey are much better than for the other sports. But I also participate in 2 uber competitive leagues against friends and I can in no way, shape or form divulge my trade secrets and jeopardize the integrity of my fantasy efforts.

I will only say this: in the keeper league we're starting up, I've won the rights to the first pick and am not considering anybody other than Sidney Crosby with this pick.

Any little scrap of info can only help my competition, which is also being VERY secretive. I can't even find out who Bowler is picking at number three and we always talk in depth fantasy hockey strategy.

If you're lucky, I MIGHT post my rankings after both of my important drafts have taken place.

Seriously...Why Am I Not a GM?

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Tue, 07 Aug 2007 22:26:00 +0000

I realize that professional sports isn't exactly a shining beacon that attracts the most intellectually minded people, but you'd think that there would at least be some level of common sense. Now, poor decisions are always going to be made in sports, where passion and favoritism always rule over logic and good business practices, but there have been two recent baseball transactions that defy any sort of explanation.

1.) The Pittsburgh Pirates trade some guy (doesn't matter who...could've been my grandma for all I care) to San Fransisco Giants for Matt Morris and his entire contract - When Matt Morris signed his contract with the Giants, the more intelligent baseball fans out there immediately saw this is a unnecessarily risky deal. The money is in and around the $9 million a year range for a one time decent pitcher (ie. pitched in some all star games) coming off the kind of surgery that causes most pitchers to decline. And decline Morris did this year. While his ERA and win totals don't look horrible, his peripheral stats (the ones that measure true performance value) are very scary. Now, if the Yankees or someone were looking for a fifth starter for the stretch run, sure, this sort of trade would make sense. But the Pirates?

Let's see...first off they are a small market team with limited financial resources. The last thing they need to be doing is tying up their budget with an overpaid, aging, declining pitcher. Second, they are nowhere near close to make any sort of playoff push so they don't need his veteran presence and moxie (if you believe in such a thing). Finally, and probably worst of all, this takes the ball out of the hands of some of the Pirates talented young pitchers. Guys like Snell, Gorzelanny, Duke, Maholm and Van Benschoten all have fairly high upsides and are all ready for the show (except may Van Benschoten). So why bring in a guy that is overpaid and sucks just to push these youngsters to the bullpen or triple A? It just doesn't make sense, yet it provides pretty clear evidence as to why the Pirates are forever a last place team: their organization doesn't get it!

This trade just makes no sense. It's like a young guy that has a great wife, just graduated from med school with his Ph. D and he's sitting in a room when a stranger walks up to him and offers some heroin. The guy sits there for a moment, thinking about it, and then decides "Yeah...YEAH...I could really go for some heroin right about now. Heroin is exactly the thing that will not cause any problems to my potentially bright future."

2.) The Arizona Diamondbacks sign Eric Byrnes to a 3 year, $30 million deal - First off, Eric Byrnes is NOT a $10 million a year player. He is a league average player that has his value inflated by the media and fans because he is a fan favorite. And past attendance records prove one thing: people like winners more than they like fan favorites.

More importantly, though, is the fact that the Diamondbacks are now blocking some of their top young players in order to overpay an average outfielder with no upside for the next three years. Firmly entrenched in center field is Chris Young, who is looking more and more like an improved version of Mike Cameron (that's a good thing). Just joining the D-Backs is Justin Upton (BJ's more talented, younger brother) that is getting compared to Ken Griffey Jr. an awful lot. Arizona also has Carlos Quentin, a solid outfield that projects to be at least as good as Byrnes, but with a lot more potential. This deal does make more sense than the Pirates trading for Matt Morris because at least the Diamondbacks have the talent to compete next year, but still....why overpay a replaceable player that blocks the development of your top prospects? Furthermore, why not let Byrnes hit the free agent market? I can't see another team offering him that sort of money and if they do, so what! Let someone else pay for his declining skill set.

Bring Forth The Sleepers!

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 19:57:00 +0000

Everybody always wants to know the sleepers. I think its because everybody wants to pick up that 4th round out of some small school, watch him explode and then spout off about how brilliant he was for making that pick, when, in reality, it was mostly luck. The same person often fails to mention how those risky picks he made in the 6th and 7th rounds blew up in his face.

I don't listen too much to pre-season sleeper talk. Once a player is mentioned as a sleeper in more than a few publications, I tend to stay away. Once a player is labelled a sleeper his draft position grows a lot higher than his potential ceiling ever was. So my sleepers are a bit different than most. They're not undrafted rookies out of St. Vincent's Southern Christian Academy in Division III. They are players you are probably quite familiar with. They are players that seem to be vastly underrated coming into this season. Hell, I've seen some of these guys on the busts lists of some publications.

What I'm NOT suggesting is that you reach for these players. I'm merely suggesting to keep them in mind if you miss out on some coveted players at these positions earlier. I'm just saying that if Peyton Manning slips to the middle of the second round and you're trying to decide between Manning and Ronnie Brown, take Manning because Brandon Jacobs is likely available in the third.

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning - I'm not saying Eli Manning is a great QB. He makes a lot of mistakes at bad times that costs his team games. That kind of thing is coach-able, though. Wants not coach-able is his tremendous arm strength and ability to air the ball out. Manning will put up yardage and TDs. As long as your league doesn't penalize you too much for INTs, Manning should be a fringe starting fantasy QB this year, with the potential!

Jason Campbell - Campbell seems to be grasping Al Saunders offence now. Need I remind you Saunders is responsible for making QBs like Trent Green a fantasy force? Campbell also has some excellent weapons to throw to (Moss, Randle El, Lloyd, Cooley, Betts, Portis, SELLERS). He should be at least as valuable as guys like Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, etc. this year.

Byron Leftwich - Leftwich should be healthy this year and should make a serviceable QB2 with a bit of upside. It's hard to draft him, though, knowing his receiving corps is among the weakest in the league.

Running Back

Brandon Jacobs - A year and a half ago, Jacobs was the trendy must have running back. He was supposed to take over for Tiki Barber and be a stud. He's done nothing since then to change that, though everybody seems to have soured on him a bit. This guy will provide similar value to guys like Ronnie Brown and Willie Parker but an entire two to three rounds later.

Cedric Benson - Nobody has faith in this guy except, I presume, the Bears. Benson is THE guy on a team that has to run the ball to be effective. The Bears traded Thomas Jones to open a spot for Benson and even the most ineffective RB can rush for 1000 yards if you give him enough touches.

Tatum Bell - Bell is a very talented back; do not question his talent. The problem in Denver was fumbling, which did not go over well with Mike Shanahan. Bell is in Detroit now, playing the position that Mike Martz so effectively used Marshall Faulk in. It also looks more and more like Kevin Jones is going to miss a large chunk of the season, if not all of it. Remember one thing....Jones isn't so talented that Bell can't keep Jones on the bench when Jones does return.

Julius Jones - Jones has been slipping DEEP into drafts, well behind Marion Barber III. Here's the thing...he's still the starting running back on a good offense. I'm not saying you need to draft him in the first 5 rounds but he makes a nice option for teams looking for depth at running back in the mid rounds.

Tony Hunt - Brian Westbrook owners listen up: draft Tony Hunt. If someone else picks him up, you're going to be sorry. Westbrook will get injured for some of this season and Hunt will post good numbers as his replacement.

Wide Receiver

Deion Branch - Branch will post WR2 numbers at worst this year (barring injury) but is being drafted as more of a WR3. The perfect reason to pick a third RB instead of addressing WR too early.

Santana Moss - Moss has huge playmaking ability. He just didn't have someone that could throw the ball to him for most of last year. Enter the strong armed Jason Campbell.

Jerry Porter - Looking more and more like the starter in Oakland. Yeah, it's Oakland, but Porter has plenty of explosiveness and is going UNDRAFTED in many leagues. And excellent depth receiver that should post WR2/3 numbers.

Troy Williamson - Somebody has to catch the ball in Minny. Not the most ringing endoresment. Williamson has the physical gifts to be a solid NFL receiver, he just needs some consistency. He's also of that age where receivers tend to make the next step, so there are worse guys to take a flyer on.

Tight End

Tight end is so deep this year that there is really nobody to label as a "sleeper" unless you're playing in some masochistic, ultra deep league that starts two tight ends. If that's the case:

Eric Johnson - Was a solid pass catcher at one time in San Fran. Now playing with Drew Brees.
Tony Scheffler - Good pass catcher. Liked him better before Denver signed Daniel Graham.
Visanthe Shiancoe - Minny paid him A LOT of money, so I assume they will try and get him the ball as much as possible.

Anatomy of a First Place Team

noreply@blogger.com (Brad) — Sat, 04 Aug 2007 02:12:00 +0000

Of my many fantasy baseball teams this year, the one that is doing the best is also the most surprising one. It's surprising in that when I look at the roster, I wonder how come I'm in first, let alone in first with such a commanding lead. So I've decided to take a look. (Note that its a standard rotisserie team).

My roster consists of the following:

C - Russell Martin - .299/12 HR/18 SB/59 runs/68 RBI
1B - Ryan Howard - .271/29 HR/0 SB/59 runs/ 88 RBI
2B - Brian Roberts - .317/9 HR/32 SB/72 runs/41 RBI
3B - Eric Chavez - .240/15 HR/4 SB/43 runs/46 RBI
SS - Hanley Ramirez - .338/17 HR/31 SB/81 runs/50 RBI
OF - Jason Bay - .263/16 HR/3 SB/55 runs/69 RBI
OF - Corey Hart - .283/18 HR/16 SB/57 runs/48 RBI
OF - Jermaine Dye - .238/21 HR/2 SB/52 runs/56 RBI
DH - David Ortiz - .320/18 HR/1 SB/70 runs/65 RBI

Bench

OF - Shane Victorino - .284/11 HR/32 SB/72 runs/42 RBI
SS - Troy Tulowitzki - .272/12 HR/5 SB/59 runs/47 RBI

My offence is being carried by Russell Martin, Ryan Howard, Brian Roberts, Hanley Ramirez and David Ortiz. They've provided me with an excellent blend of speed and power. All of my guys play either at the top of their line-ups (Ramirez, Roberts, Hart, Martin) which provide alot of runs or else in prime RBI spots (Howard, Ortiz, Dye, Bay). I've been able to complement my star players with the likes of Corey Hart and Shane Victorino (currently injured), to provide solid production. My 3B slot has been a rotation that is now probably going to use Alex Gordon with Chavez going on the DL. I've been lucky, too. I picked up Hart early in the season to replace the injured Dave Roberts in the outfield. When Hanley Ramirez was injured earlier, I picked up Troy Tulowitzki just as he went on a hot tear. And now, with the injury to Victorino, I picked up Dye and he's been on fire. This is a ridiculously balanced offence that only has a bit of a weak spot at third but I've managed to play that position effectively off the wire.

My rotation looks like:

Erik Bedard - 3.05/11 W/181 K/1.09 WHIP
Cole Hamels - 3.50/12 W/143 K/1.15 WHIP
Tim Lincecum - 3.75/ 6 W/105 K/1.19 WHIP
Javier Vazquez - 3.63/8 W/132 K/1.09 WHIP
Matt Cain - 4.02/3 W/96 K/1.40 WHIP
Jered Weaver - 4.00/7 W/71 K/1.47 WHIP
Billy Wagner - 1.36/1 W/57 K/0.86 WHIP/25 saves
Jonathan Papelbon - 2.09/0 W/56 K/0.88 WHIP/24 saves
Takashi Saito - 1.51/1 W/48K/0.72 WHIP/27 saves

DL - Rich Harden

My rotation looks unspectacular at first, especially coming into the season. However, Bedard/Hamels/Vazquez were three pitchers I was targeting at the start of the year in drafts. They are high strikeout pitchers that had great peripherals (good WHIP), which is usually a far better indication of a pitchers talent over ERA and wins, which are more team dependent. Bedard has really taken the next step, leading the majors in strikeouts by quite a bit. Hamels has done what I expected and Vazquez is quietly putting together a fantastic season. The thing about this rotation is I don't really have any WHIP killers pitching for me. Cain and Weaver have high WHIPs right now, but I've only been spot starting them against the most favorable of match-ups. Lincecum was a must add the moment he was called up and, despite the occasional rough start, he has not disappointed. I've also gotten excellent production from my three closers. All have been lights out (even adding a bunch of strike outs!) and have allowed me to avoid patching together some closers that would negatively affect my ERA and WHIP.

The thing to learn from this team is that in roto baseball, the key is to have a flexible, diverse and balanced line-up without players that kill you in average, ERA or WHIP. I have my elite studs in Howard/Ramirez/Ortiz and Bedard/Wagner/Papelbon/Saito and have filled in the rest with useful players that, as a whole, contribute to all categories. I think far too often people focus on the big run producers at each position or big name pitchers that rack up wins and undervalue players like Corey Hart, Shane Victorino, and Javier Vazquez. However, players like these are all EXTREMELY useful, as my team's success shows.